Factual correction: Wordpress blogs do not take ads. We get no ad dollars whatsover. Your assumptions about my motivation are completely incorrect.
Are you saying that the blog in question is NOT where you came from?
Because if you are from there.... I got ads from Google (mods, delete the links if you wish... I don't know how)... so either you are lying (taking the money from ads), or someone is using your blog to advertise and you are not getting any of the money... which is it?
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Lots of words have been put in my mouth--things I never expressed in any of my posts. I like Jack Bogle as much as the next guy. We own some Vanguard ETFs for clients. I have nothing against index funds--we run some ourselves. Index investing clearly works--but part of the reason it works is some level of active management and/or weighting. I've not contended that our stock selection method using relative strength is the only thing that works over time. Numerous value factors have also been shown to work. Because we use relative strength doesn't make me against value. Etc., etc., etc.
As someone pointed out... even Bernstein does not suggest what you blog claims.
"Simple: Because a portfolio of "carefully chosen" equities could easily wind up with none of the best-performing stocks in the market - and thus produce flat or negative returns over many years. Missing out on even a handful of superstocks can leave you short of your target. "
And a paragraph down:
"Now, some investors and fund managers do wind up picking these winning lottery tickets in the stock market. But history shows that this ability doesn't persist over time.
Even if you're lucky enough to win with a concentrated portfolio of superstocks, after a while you'll find that most of your net worth is tied up in a handful of holdings - and that's a sure-fire prescription for chronic insomnia. "
and HIS conclusion
"Don't give up on indexing. The only way you can be assured of owning all of tomorrow's superstocks (and super asset classes as well) is to own the entire market. So even though it's been a tough decade for the world's benchmarks, you're still better off owning a mix of total market index funds that cover U.S. and foreign stocks. "
Again, the three points I made are not really controversial. No one has examined the actual research and said "wait a minute, the math is wrong." It's not. When Mr. Bernstein and Dimensional Fund Advisors (a super low cost index firm, by the way) looked at the results, they came to the same conclusion as Blackstar.
Here is number 1
1. buy-and-hold typically loses money, according to both Bernstein/DFA and Blackstar Funds. No controversy there.
I see nothing in any of the articles where is shows that buy and hold typically loses money.. please show me the math behind that? So, yes, this is a controversial statement. (and you seem to think you made none)
It is made to create fear in an investor that he can not (or should not) do a buy and hold strategy... but there are very few 'real' buy and hold... you make it sound like if you buy something you can NEVER sell... that is not what I was taught was the strategy... but that you should not be trading all the time... your time horizon is long term. If you look at the internet you get Warren Buffet as the biggest buy and hold guy... are you going to tell me HE lost money? His return is a lot better than any fund manager out there... over the long term...
Also... one of the fund families that use the method you talk about on the blog is Value Line... they rank the companies from good to bad... and they have mutual funds that choose the high ranked stocks... I just took a look and their fund that tracks the best stocks have less than $100 mill and is rated a 1 star... not that great... I don't know your guy... but why not put down how great he has done so we can compare...
And you last statement is basically that momentum investing is the way to go... but there are some big pitfalls in that way of investing...
Riding The Momentum Investing Wave
As for me, I don't want to spend so much time trying to make sure that the flavor of the day/hour/minute is in my portfolio or should be out... to much work.. and again, show me a mutual fund that invests this way that is successful OVER TIME...
Index investing (as I mentioned before) has proven to be better than 95% of active fund managers... I think that I am just fine making more money than 95% of the people... I am not greedy.... (I can not find the article with the 95... but can find 80% easily... so sub that number if you wish.. again, I am not greedy)...