Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Well I am! Everything Carlton Sheets (and clones)
says is true. People can't believe it (or maybe don't
get it). Those "success stories" are real (or could be).
Real Estate..................the last bastion of true
entreprenurism.

JG

[wildcat]

JG -

Really??

[REWahoo]

REW

Exactly what balanced funds do you own?

eleighj

Primarily Dodge & Cox, but when I rollover my 401(k) I plan on splitting 40-60 between Dodge & Cox and Vanguard Wellesley.

REW

[Nords]

Well I am! *Everything Carlton Sheets (and clones) says is true. *People can't believe it (or maybe don't get it). *Those "success stories" are real (or could be). *Real Estate..................the last bastion of true
entreprenurism. *JG

Sorry, John, I can't agree with the Sheets example. *He's a little light on the details.

But if you're saying that creativity, persistence, & hard work can make money in real estate, then I agree.

And the rest of the crowd will sell books & seminars.

[wildcat]

Interesting review but not surprising hence my reaction to JG

Hello Wildcat and Nords and Charlie.

For Wildcat, yeah "Really" !!

For Nords, of course Carlton Sheets is "light on details".
He wants you to buy the program. I have the "details"
without taking the course (30 years experience).
It's a lot of work though which is why I no longer do it.

For Charlie. I am looking into TIPs and I-Bonds now,
so maybe you can teach an old dog new tricks. I
am certainly an "old dog".

Cheers,

JG

[unclemick]

Heh, heh, heh

I just looked - I have (1976) Tyler G. Hicks, "How to Make One Million Dollars in Real Estate in three years starting with no cash." - gathering dust on my bookshelf.

I bought the duplex in 1977 - very small downpayment and took over the loan. Being a landlord for 15+ years cured me. For someone else? - well - more than one way to skin a cat.

My hat is off to successful real estate cats - but no plans for me to go there.

Oh - for any 100% stock cats out there - Read Charlie's post - a lot of meat there.

85% balanced index, 15 % dividend stocks and still thinking.

[charlie]

JG, while you are looking at TIPS and I-bonds, check
out "floaters" as well. There are many types but
I like the bonds that pay a "real" rate plus CPI.
Almost all of my FI is invested in mid-term floaters
paying 2+% + CPI, maturing in about 9 years. The
advantage of this type for persons living off of the
income is that you are paid monthly. There is no
"deferred" income. The downside is that in 9 years
at maturity the bonds will pay par value ..... which will have been devalued by 9 years of inflation.

You are also taking the risk that inflation will be
abnormally low for 9 years .... pretty low risk, IMHO.

Cheers,

Charlie

[haha]

Yup, I haven't noticed anybody posting that they didn't time the market correctly either. *Everybody who posts that they time the market claims that they went to cash sometime between January and March 2000.

In my case, I think I have posted about my misadventures in market timing. Over the past 8 years or so, I am down probably over $50,000 on puts. I held puts for at least a year until January 2000 and finally gave up. My last ones in that campaign were leaps with a Jan 00 expiration. I still expected a Nasdaq break, it's just that it got too expensive and painful for me to wait it out.

My gold timing could be lot better too, although I have done pretty well here.

I've had a bonanza in energy, and also over the past 5 years in tobacco, as extreme legal fears for some reason lessened.

I don't like to lose in the puts, but without them I wouldn't hold any stocks at all at current levels.

I've been retired for about 20 years, raised 2 kids, and my net investested assets are much higher than when I began this experiment.

I truly cannot understand why people wouldn't want to do some strategic market timing, unless they are very rich already.

Mikey

[Hyperborea]

I truly cannot understand why people wouldn't want to do some strategic market timing, unless they are very rich already.

Ok Mikey what kind of strategic market timing would you do in the current market? How much does it cost you? When would you move the strategic market timing strategy again? Why?

Let's use a hypothetical diversified portfolio such as this below. It's pretty much world market balanced. It would be for somebody in accumulation mode.

Thanks

• 10% Fixed Income (CDs, SBs, etc)
• 90% Equities arrayed as:
  • 10% Commodities
  • 55% International
    • 40% EAFE
    • 10% Emerging Market
    • 5% China
  • 35% US
    • 30% Total US Market
    • 5% Small Cap Value

[haha]

Ok Mikey what kind of strategic market timing would you do in the current market? *How much does it cost you? *When would you move the strategic market timing strategy again? *Why?

Hyper-B, I am not sure what I would do with your holdings. Since you have thoughtfully assembled them, probably best for me not to make any comments which would of necessity be less informed than the thought you have already put into your work.

I can show you what my current allocation is-as of today's close.

US Fixed Gold Energy Options US Stock Foreign Stock Foreign Bonds REIT ---------- ------- ------- -------- --------- -------------- -------------- ------ 42% 8% 16% 1% 17% 9% 6% 1%

US fixed is I-bonds, 1,2,3 year CDs, and T-bills. It is essntially safe parking, not yield seeking. Foreigh stocks and bonds are developed markets. Singapore is as low as I go unless valuations are great.

If my put program totally craps out, it will have cost me 1.5% in the worst year. I may get permission on my account to write naked, so I can keep costs down with strangles. OTOH, if I were to sell the calls I might as well sell short and I am not quite willing to do that.

I will re-evaluate in fall of 06, looking to close out or adjust bear plays and maybe depending on market levels add more equities.

My main inputs are valuations of S&P (PE10); the particular valuations of stocks I might be interested in buying long; insider buying (aggregate and in particular issues of interest); and the 4 year presidential cycle.

Where I would like to be is heavily in well valued equities in strong well financed companies. That is always my goal. I also like energy. I have had energy investments for years, and they tend to work out given reasonable attention to detail. Recently of course energy stocks have been on fire. Although anything can happen short term, I expect energy will continue to be strong but perhaps volatile for some years to come.

The gold is a contra US stockmarket, contra US dollar play. I am not as committed to it as I am to energy longer term. However, in the right circumstances it can be a medium risk, high reward speculation. Clearly we don't have scarcity working for us with gold, as with some other commodity investments.

I often make judgments that appear to me to be reasonable, but which turn out to be early, wrong, or at least sub-optimal. An example is REITs. I bought REITs heavily in 1999, 2000 and into 2001. Counting dividends, I almost doubled a fairly large commitment. I sold almost all in 2003, feeling that anyone can build a shopping center or office building, and that trouble was just arond the corner. Obviously, I left a lot of money on the table. When you market time and do sector bets, this stuff happens all the time. Still, it can be a pretty stable and high return way to go about investing. Big wipeouts should be rare.

I think a program has to appeal on a deep level or it is hard to withstand adversity. So, my 2 cents :)

Mikey

[wildcat]

What kind of international MF do people like? Active or index? Based on what I have seen, actively managed international funds seem to outperform the broad international index funds. In other words, the EMT does not seem to hold up as well when it comes to the international markets. I have looked at the Dodge & Cox Intl. MF a few times, any thoughts? Thanks.

[Hyperborea]

What kind of international MF do people like? *Active or index?

I'm using a combination ETFs and funds that track indexes (ETFs in my own accounts and funds in 401k).

Based on what I have seen, actively managed international funds seem to outperform the broad international index funds. *In other words, the EMT does not seem to hold up as well when it comes to the international markets. *I have looked at the Dodge & Cox Intl. MF a few times, any thoughts? *Thanks.

I'm not so sure that this is true. *The broad EAFE index is not necessarily the best measure for comparing many international funds. *These managed funds take many one country bets, region bets or sector bets within those countries. *It's like comparing the S&P500 index fund against a small cap managed fund over the last couple of years. *If you look at the holdings of DODFX they are heavily skewed away from what the EAFE tracks. *They look much closer to the MSCI Emerging Market index with a dash of EAFE tossed in. *In fact, if you look at a chart of their returns it follows to a reasonable degree that index.

DODFX also has a very short history - only 4 years. *Not enough time to tell you much at all.

[Hyperborea]

I can show you what my current allocation is-as of today's close.

Thanks.

I often make judgments that appear to me to be reasonable, but which turn out to be early, wrong, or at least sub-optimal. An example is REITs. I bought REITs heavily in 1999, 2000 and into 2001. Counting dividends, I almost doubled a fairly large commitment. I sold almost all in 2003, feeling that anyone can build a shopping center or office building, and that trouble was just arond the corner. Obviously, I left a lot of money on the table. When you market time and do sector bets, this stuff happens all the time.

Do you really think that you make out better than holding a "reasonable" diversified portfolio and rebalancing? Do you know that you do? Have you tracked your portfolio against a "reasonable" diversified portfolio?

My main inputs are valuations of S&P (PE10); the particular valuations of stocks I might be interested in buying long; insider buying (aggregate and in particular issues of interest); and the 4 year presidential cycle.

What are you using to evaluate these inputs? Is it gut feeling? Is it a "magick hypercube" (one guy on TMF used to tout this every time he could). "Eyeballing" charts?

[Marshac]

I may get permission on my account to write naked

We're all friends here, you don't need permission to write (or type) naked *

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You know, I was going to run with that one but decided that I've been dipping into the cheap stuff too much lately.

Thanks for diving into the void Marshac!

[sgeeeee]

Hey, I'm as liberal as the next guy, but all this talk about gays and naked posting has me wanting to thump my bible and wave a gun.

[haha]

Thanks.


Do you really think that you make out better than holding a "reasonable" diversified portfolio and rebalancing? *Do you know that you do? *Have you tracked your portfolio against a "reasonable" diversified portfolio?


What are you using to evaluate these inputs? *Is it gut feeling? *Is it a "magick hypercube" (one guy on TMF used to tout this every time he could). *"Eyeballing" charts?

Actually, I do know these things. I have an account that was funded over a 3 year period in the 70s. Nothing more has been added or taken out. It satisfies me. However, I can 't really see what you are offering except a lot of lip to make me want to show you.

I think from the bottom of my heart that you should do whatever are have been doing. Maybe eventually you will accomplish something that will help you to lose that chip on your shoulder.

Hasta luego amigo. You are just another all hat, no cattle wage slave. It is possible but certainly not guaranteed that you will someday be an ER.

Ring me up when you have accomplished something in this arena.

Yours truly,
Mikey

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Hey, I'm as liberal as the next guy, but all this talk about gays and naked posting has me wanting to thump my bible and wave a gun. *

Now WHO in the heck has been talking about gays and naked posting

Have you been licking any toads or tasting any mushrooms on those long desert walks you enjoy?