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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 06:45 AM   #41
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Interesting thread. I am currently clothed and have both individual stocks and mutual funds, along with fixed investments. Overall I have had good fortune with individual stocks but the risk is always there. So this is not a large percentage of my total portfolio.

It seems that with individual stocks that a few good ones outweigh the bad ones. Of coarse if you don't have a good one your screwed. One that has been good to me the last few years is FRO. I think its paying something like a 25% dividend and has a PE of 4. Its been spinning off shares and paying out extra capital gains for a while. Now its probably going to go bankrupt but so far so good.

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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 07:03 AM   #42
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

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Maybe eventually you will accomplish something that will help you to lose that chip on your shoulder.
Not sure what "chip" you are referring to. *It is probably scepticism that you are seeing much like I would have about perpetual motion machines or faster than light radios. *I'm not sure why you took my questions the way that you did as they were honest questions.

If you claim to have been a successful market timer do you have the numbers? *A lot of people (not necessarily here) claim to time and then you find out that their "stats" are based off of a couple of well remembered trades while they have ignored the bulk of the losing ones. *If you've got the numbers then that's more interesting.

Do you have some methodology to what you do? *That was my question on "eyeballing charts" and such (perhaps this was too brusque). *If you've got a methodology that is quantifiable and has some reasonable logic to it then that is more interesting than someone who got "lucky".

None of those will overcome the selection bias issue since this would be just one person who succeeded rather than a large cross-section. *It would be anecdotal but it would still be interesting.

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Could I ER right now if I wanted to? *Sure, I've got more assets than some here appear to have had when they did it. *Why don't I? *Two big reasons. *I got to that asset level at a much younger age (10-15 years younger) and that means that I will need more to cover a longer retirement and I am further away from collecting government social programs.

Second, as has been gone around many times on this board and elsewhere a lot of it comes down to the lifestyle that you want to live in retirement. *I don't want to live as "cheaply" as some do. *If ER in and of itself was the only goal then it's achievable instantly to everyone but the standard of living would be rather low for most.

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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 08:38 AM   #43
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

I'm 97% in individual stocks and 3% in funds, with a total of .03% of my net worth in a bond fund. I am, however, young and dumb . Buffett made his first mil before he was 30. I doubt I can get to an inflation-adjusted million before I'm 30 and edge Buffet, but I also don't have a congressman father with wealthy friends to invest with me either, and the obvious is I'm not as smart as Buffett either! I need about 21.5% over the next 8 years and I'm there. I feel cautiously optimistic when I consider I've averaged roughly 75% per year over the last 5. It'll be interesting to see what happens!
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 11:01 AM   #44
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Ive become much more conservative as I get closer to ER. I was amazed at how smart I was in the late 90's. I had spreadsheets showing that I should have about 10 mil now. 2000-2002 was a real learning experience. I still invest in individual stocks but just more conservativly. I do not have the data but I'm sure I'm ahead of the game because of stocks. I've been investing in individual stocks since 87. The mutual funds just didn't seem to go up as fast as the individual stocks that I had bought. didn't go down as fast either.

I did enjoy it and studied everything I could. The time I spent was almost like a part time job. I would have to think the time involved was worth something.
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 06:41 PM   #45
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Berkshire Bull -

What the hell are you doing to average 75%?
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-02-2005, 06:46 PM   #46
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

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Berkshire Bull -

What the hell are you doing to average 75%?
Crack?
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CRe: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-03-2005, 10:09 AM   #47
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CRe: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Crack Stinks!!
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-03-2005, 10:12 AM   #48
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Sorry, Berkshire, you're going to have to post your Schedule Ds to back up that one.

I've read too many posts of that ilk on TMF & FundVision.
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-03-2005, 10:17 AM   #49
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

I think a diversified portfolio of crack, crystal meth, heroin, and LSD could easily provide 75% annually, although a little diversification from pot might be a good idea. Just don't ask about the volatility...
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-03-2005, 10:49 AM   #50
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

Honestly if I laid out my schedule D's going back to 1995 I might approach that number. I had a couple of 300+% years in the late 90's between my companies stock flying through the roof and my heavy tech ownership. I used to flip a few hundred thousand in QQQ's every couple of days and rake it in.

There wasnt a lot of skill in that though, it was just the way the tide was flowing.

That $150k in losses I took in 2000 trying to buy the QQQ's on the dip at nasdaq 2500 and 2000 (come on...it was 5000 a couple of months ago...how low can it drop!?!) offset some of those big gain years but annualized it almost has to be in the mid double digit range.

Kudo's to BB if he's been pulling those big returns off with consistency...maybe we have a young Buffett among us. Now we just have to figure out if its a 'warren' or a 'jimmy'

The good news is I still have ~133k of those short term losses kicking around. They make tax-time fun.
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-03-2005, 11:46 AM   #51
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

BB -

I think its time to post.... based on what you have posted you are claiming to have started with around $12,000 (PV of $210,000 a 75%) at the age of 17 and by the current age of 22 you have around $210,000 (assuming a million discounted 21.5% 8 yrs) with an expected million at the age of 30....enlighten us. You sound like you must have done one of the following: got some serious help along the way, you are an incredible investors specializing in penny stocks or you did not calculate you returns correctly. Taxes been bad?
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?
Old 03-05-2005, 02:39 PM   #52
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Re: Buy individual stocks or mutual funds?

BB; where do I send the cash!?

At a 20% w/r I really do not need to work anymore! On the other hand - why lower it all the way down to that when you have 75% as a proven return! I could have retired 15 years ago!

I suspect that some great penny investments have done something earlier and then some dividing on the calculator came out funny. I could be wrong!

Cheers!
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