Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Buying a little here - where we are in the news cycle
Old 10-22-2008, 09:06 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Buying a little here - where we are in the news cycle

I've divided up my remaining cash into 4 pots and will be buying today - I think Thurs & Fri will be relatively flat.

A rule of thumb is to buy towards the end of the week in a bear market - beginning in the bull market.

The stock market is focusing in on earning reports now.

Phases/Focus to go through before this stock downturn is over
__________________

__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-22-2008, 09:13 AM   #2
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
The funny thing is that whacked the market based partially on bad expected earnings, and when they get bad earnings... it gets whacked again. That's not how rational markets work. Rational markets usually discount the future and then correct after the rumor becomes news. Not this market -- everything is a reason to sell.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:18 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,067
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Rational markets usually discount the future and then correct after the rumor becomes news. Not this market -- everything is a reason to sell.
Which may be further evidence we haven't seen the bottom yet.

"My guess is that, when that low does finally occur, we'll be witnessing, and experiencing ourselves, a lot more of the psychological traits associated with capitulation: Exhaustion, disgust, lack of interest, even apathy."

The difference between panic and capitulation - MarketWatch
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:27 AM   #4
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,372
I admire your strategy, Dex--but we are scaredy cats and waiting here.... and we will be thrilled to be wrong.
__________________
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:29 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
i have to check my newsletter from last night to see what the sell signals are. making money on shorts today and don't want to get too greedy

one is a bit more conservative in it's prediction and Bob Prechter's analysts are saying 800 for the SP500 in the next few weeks.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:36 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
i have to check my newsletter from last night to see what the sell signals are. making money on shorts today and don't want to get too greedy

one is a bit more conservative in it's prediction and Bob Prechter's analysts are saying 800 for the SP500 in the next few weeks.
Which newsletter do you read?
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:37 AM   #7
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,822
Seems to me that market bottoms are seldom recognized until afterwards. However, I think that at the very least we can confidently state that the market has dropped.

In my opinion, for those who aren't clairvoyant this is as good a time as any to invest. Dex, I like your strategy.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:39 AM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 595
Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....
__________________
armor99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:49 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
Which newsletter do you read?
Elliottwave.com and elliottwavetechnology.com

it's around $120 a month for both and i easily made it since last week.

the former is run by Bob Prechter but he has a bunch of peons writing the updates. the latter also uses MACD and RSI for it's buy and sell signals and they do more signals to try to catch every move and they are a bit more conservative.

checked and last night's copy says 912 sell target for the SP and 8533 for the Dow. For the Nasdaq they use NDX and not COMPQ. Monday they said get ready to short again.

Bob says we are in wave 5 and get ready for the SP to go to 784 - 812 before we rally. I checked the math and it's about right although you can use a higher target for the low.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:49 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by armor99 View Post
Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....
For future reference - I strongly recommend averaging into and out of a position - unless it is a small amount. You may not catch the top or bottom but it gives you options.

Starting when the cash I have to invest in funds is gone. I will take the dividends from the Vang. High Yield fund and invest them in stock funds. It is a small amount but it should help my portfolio recover faster from the drop.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:50 AM   #11
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
I'm going all in... with new contributions. I've not been on pace to fully fund my 401K this year, but I just changed my new contribution election to put 20% of my salary into it with each pay period. It'll make current cash flow tighter for the rest of the year, but I want to plow as much new money into the market as I can. That should just about max me out by year's end.

Still not ready to catch the falling knife by finishing my rebalancing, though. I really should but I'm letting the fear emotion alter my decision-making (bad, I know)...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:52 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

Bob says we are in wave 5 and get ready for the SP to go to 784 - 812 before we rally. I checked the math and it's about right although you can use a higher target for the low.
Those numbers are close to the last low - several years ago. It would be a double bottom.

Take a look at Decisionpoint.com - Complete Market Research at a Glance also for other tools -
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 09:58 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
the wave 5 is just for the august downturn. looking at the entire October 2007 high till now we are only finishing up wave 3. wave 4 is a rally with the hypothetical top being 1200 - 1300 on the SP500 since that is where wave 1 ends. then wave 5 will start next year and the lows are anywhere from 400 - 600 on the SP500 depending on who you ask and how you read the last 100 years of data
\
very interesting, i'm reading about Elliott Wave and follow the daily prices every 30 minutes or so and the movements correspond pretty much how Elliott said they should back in the 1930's. what's more amazing is that the theory along with other technical indicators seems to hold true even on longterm movements over decades.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 11:17 AM   #14
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,031
If the DOW remains firmly below 9000 by the close, I will do some buying too.
__________________
FIREd is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 11:50 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,356
You're going to look like a genius in 10 years.

May look a little stupid for a year or two, though.

Now is the time to get rich.


Quote:
Originally Posted by armor99 View Post
Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....
__________________
Hamlet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 11:50 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Which may be further evidence we haven't seen the bottom yet.

"My guess is that, when that low does finally occur, we'll be witnessing, and experiencing ourselves, a lot more of the psychological traits associated with capitulation: Exhaustion, disgust, lack of interest, even apathy."

The difference between panic and capitulation - MarketWatch
I'm there...
__________________

__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Costs/cycle for expected replacement items samclem FIRE and Money 34 10-01-2008 10:59 PM
Interesting Life Cycle Paper ats5g FIRE and Money 27 07-28-2007 10:22 PM
Stock Market -- What stage of the business cycle and what is in demand? chinaco FIRE and Money 5 05-19-2007 08:17 PM
Nords! - We have good news and bad news!............ Cut-Throat Life after FIRE 16 09-13-2006 02:26 PM
TSP introduces Life Cycle Funds daystar FIRE and Money 13 08-04-2005 07:34 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:33 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.