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California-style real estate appreciation in brush country
Old 05-31-2018, 10:10 AM   #1
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California-style real estate appreciation in brush country

I know for many of you experiencing a rapid increase in home prices is nothing new, but for some of us living in flyover country, it is a rare occurrence. In my case, it is a once in a lifetime event.

We live in one of several semi-rural “build on your own lot” subdivisions located a dozen or so miles outside the city limits of San Antonio. Lots in these subdivisions are a minimum of two acres, most are five or more. Restrictions require a septic system and, with the exception of only two subdivisions in the area that have central water systems, each lot owner has to drill their own well. A five acre lot sells for around $50k, slightly more if it has a nice view. Lots in subdivisions with central water (and underground utilities) are considerably more expensive, $120k for two acres.

Home prices have been stable for years, dropping substantially during the 2008 - 2009 market unpleasantness, then steadily recovering. I'm not sure what triggered it, but in the past few months the local housing market caught fire and values have gone up 40% (along with my tax appraisal ). Realtor.com usually had a couple of dozen houses listed for sale in our zip code, asking in the $125/sf range. Most of the houses were on the market for months, several for well over a year. Within the past few months the number of houses listed has increased and the number of sales has gone up dramatically - along with prices.

Listings for houses in the 2500 - 3000 sf range are now asking $180/sf and apparently getting it. Our closest neighbor had a contract on his house within 3 days of listing it at $183/sf. Another house just sold for a similar amount after being on the market for well over a year at what I thought was an outrageous asking price. The owner stuck to his listing price the entire time and it looks like his patience finally paid off.

Too bad we don't want to move...
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:16 AM   #2
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have the tax assessments increased as well or are they lagging a bit?

i wouldn't exactly call wimberly "fly over" but okay
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:26 AM   #3
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Thankfully our taxes are capped with only a small increase allowed because housing prices are skyrocketing. We pay 702/year on house worth 350k.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:27 AM   #4
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have the tax assessments increased as well or are they lagging a bit?
My assessment just increased 40%. Thankfully exemptions and over 65 caps limited the tax increase to about 7%.

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i wouldn't exactly call wimberly "fly over" but okay
Take another look at the map...

Quote:
...located a dozen or so miles outside the city limits of San Antonio...
...and you'll see Wimberly is about 50 miles.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:31 AM   #5
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Full employment at the higher income levels, investment purchases at the lower price points, and overseas money, especially in the most desirable coastal locations, are all driving real estate prices higher.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:31 AM   #6
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Well I'm seeing lots of ads for tapping into home equity. Looks like 2007 all over.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:32 AM   #7
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Probably a good thing for you and your heirs.
In Central NY price rises don't even meet overall inflation. The 08 crash didn't really happen here either though. Guess it's a low Beta market.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:55 AM   #8
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Maybe your area is being taken over by a cult. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajneeshpuram
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Old 05-31-2018, 11:22 AM   #9
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REWahoo, I bought my house 3 years ago and paid the going rate or a few thousand more. It seemed like I was overpaying a little bit at the time.

But amazingly the selling prices of comparable homes in my neighborhood have gone up 150% since then!! This was not the case in all of New Orleans, but just in my neighborhood due to some very local neighborhood upgrades. Apparently this is now the trendy neighborhood to live in. Anyway, most of the appreciation occurred during the year after I bought my house and houses were selling before they even hit realtor dot com. By now, real estate prices here have stabilized at the new, higher level and it takes a few months to sell a house.

Like you, I do not plan to move! I wouldn't move for anything because I love this house so much, love the neighborhood, and it is right next door to Frank's house. Tax assessments have not gone up; they usually don't bother to do that here except when the individual house is sold for a higher price.

Still, it is fun to watch our home values go up on paper.

On the other hand, if I were you, I'd sell immediately and buy a different home, this time one with city water and sewage..... Just joking because I know you like your setup.
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Old 05-31-2018, 11:35 AM   #10
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1. The population of the USA is increasing.
2. The population of Texas is increasing.
3. Builders are building fewer houses than expected.
4. Builders are typically building houses at the higher (more profits) end of the market.
5. The greater Austin market has been and still is going crazy.
6. Everyone has jobs.
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Old 05-31-2018, 11:43 AM   #11
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Take another look at the map...


okay I just did and it still isn't flyover country

challis, idaho is what I would call flyover country

do you fly a lot?
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:00 PM   #12
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Any place where you have to have a septic system and a well , is flyover country to this city girl. They probably don't even have high speed internet out there.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:04 PM   #13
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I know for many of you experiencing a rapid increase in home prices is nothing new, but for some of us living in flyover country, it is a rare occurrence. In my case, it is a once in a lifetime event.


Home prices have been stable for years, dropping substantially during the 2008 - 2009 market unpleasantness, then steadily recovering. I'm not sure what triggered it, but in the past few months the local housing market caught fire and values have gone up 40% (along with my tax appraisal ). ..
Conservative Californians leaving this state?

A former Riverside County, CA resident facilitates moves to the Dallas area. I’ve seen a few articles like this one:

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/27/54639...ike-california

Maybe that trend has extended to your area. The Hill Country is very appealing to this Texas-born Californian.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:24 PM   #14
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One of my sfh rentals was reassessed 2 years ago +40% due to reclassification from residential to medical. It is located within 200 feet of a hospital; I can literally do anything with it, including raising livestock.. The price on Zillow increased $85k to $125k, it isn't real until I sell, and someone buys. The reassessment was ordered county wide by a court order, since the last assessment was 1980.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:28 PM   #15
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As someone who lives in a completely overpriced (but paid for) home in pricey CA I was laughing a bit at your price per square foot... In my particular hood the $/sf for a 40-55 year old home is over $400/foot. I have no idea how people afford this stuff. There are 3 houses a block over from me that are similar size to ours (without the granny flat) for over $1M. Ridiculous... these are older tract homes. Sure we're in a good school area, and pretty close to the beach (10-15 minute drive)... but over a Million for 2200 sf? obscene.

Like you, I don't plan to sell, so it's not an issue.

I expect a correction here in San Diego soon because Qualcomm is laying off engineers... That is a big pool of high paid tech workers.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:33 PM   #16
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Conservative Californians leaving this state?
many are leaving cali and moving to idaho - we are the fastest growing state now I believe
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:42 PM   #17
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I'm curious if the price appreciation will make it's way to South Padre Island. I've owned a condo there for about 7 years and prices don't seem like they've changed at all. I can see why the prices are going up in the Hill Country though, very nice place!

It's a stark contrast to my hometown of Bend, OR where land, house, and rents have all skyrocketed in the past few years...
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:42 PM   #18
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Any place where you have to have a septic system and a well , is flyover country to this city girl. They probably don't even have high speed internet out there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flyover_country
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:42 PM   #19
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It's a stark contrast to my hometown of Bend, OR where land, house, and rents have all skyrocketed in the past few years...
indeed - bend is awesome
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:54 PM   #20
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REWahoo,
I live on the fringe of a desirable inner city neighborhood. Well kept 1920 era homes, easy public transportation or short car commute into downtown, near a beautiful lake, and walking distance to little shops etc. It isn't perfect, we get airplane noise, and the taxes are very high.

The home values have been very steady around here since about 2010, with most homes selling in the $325K to $375K range.


Out of the blue this spring four different homes on my block went up for sale, and immediately sold for >$500K. It is amazing. Note: My home is the smallest, and I suspect lowest valued home, but it has obviously gone up in value over the last year.


The local newspaper prints a story almost monthly about the shortage of homes, and the market being very hot. They interview local realtors etc. It is basically a plea to sell your home, and a reminder that it isn't a fun process if you are trying to buy something.
PS: I'm not going anywhere.


Take care, JP
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