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Old 04-23-2013, 05:55 PM   #81
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ChocoKitty,

Did your FireCalc runs include any Social Security that you may have accrued?

Seeing the value of my Social Security vs assuming 0 was the difference between me deciding to pull the plug now vs continuing to work another 7 years.


-gauss
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:03 PM   #82
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I assumed zero Social Security and I left out my tiny $250/month pension in my calculations.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:44 PM   #83
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I sometimes wonder if we in this forum worry a little too much about the possibility of having to reduce our spending at the end of our lives.

I see many elderly people living pretty well on very little money beyond Social Security. Once you downsize to a small apartment, how much money do you really need?

You're probably not going to be travelling much in your 80s/90s.
You may have to give up the car anyway.

As long as you have enough money to eat out a little, put a couple rolls of nickels into a slot machine, and get to the movies occasionally, how bad will it really be?

It's really not a nightmare worst-case scenario.
I love this post and talk to DW about this occasionally. Of course no one wants to run out of money. However, i think, the earlier part of retirement will be more expensive (general expenses wise).

Actually, I think the I-ORP calculator calculates this way.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:46 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by ChocoKitty View Post
I assumed zero Social Security and I left out my tiny $250/month pension in my calculations.
Why?
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:49 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by ChocoKitty View Post
I assumed zero Social Security and I left out my tiny $250/month pension in my calculations.
You may find it useful to check what you have accrued so far, assuming that you never work another day in your life. BTW they never publish this particular figure on the paper statements that they sent in the past.

The trick is to tell it that you had $0 in earnings last year -- thus future year earnings are also assumed to be $0.

step 1 - go to Retirement Estimator

step 2 - click blue "Estimate Your Retirement Benefits" near the bottom of the page.

step 3 - Fill in the personal information and accepts terms and conditions.

step 4 - enter 0 for last years earnings

step 5 - view accrued benefit starting at different ages.

Note these figures could be changed by future changes in the law, so I am only planning to receive 2/3 of what is shown. Still a significant amount of $ worth worrying about (~ $900,000 NPV in my case assuming I start drawing at 70 and live to 100)

-gauss
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Old 04-23-2013, 07:44 PM   #86
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Why?
I'd rather stay on the conservative side in my calculations. If I do get SS, it'll be a nice surprise.
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Old 04-23-2013, 08:08 PM   #87
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I'd rather stay on the conservative side in my calculations. If I do get SS, it'll be a nice surprise.
I can understand that. However, the fact you put SS at zero and didn't count your $250 a month pension probably means you aren't really short at all. Yes, the pension could go away and I guess SS could vanish entirely (although at your age it would seem more likely to perhaps be less rather than non-existent). I do think it is prudent to do runs of Firecalc without SS. However, I suspect that if you put in, say, half of your projected SS and put in your pension that you will find that you don't have a shortfall.
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Old 04-23-2013, 08:18 PM   #88
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I can understand that. However, the fact you put SS at zero and didn't count your $250 a month pension probably means you aren't really short at all. Yes, the pension could go away and I guess SS could vanish entirely (although at your age it would seem more likely to perhaps be less rather than non-existent). I do think it is prudent to do runs of Firecalc without SS. However, I suspect that if you put in, say, half of your projected SS and put in your pension that you will find that you don't have a shortfall.
This illustrates the problems with pinning your plans on a certain firecalc result. A couple hundred bucks one way or the other can give a large difference in survivability. Sensitivity testing is important, as are multiple contingency plans.
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Old 04-23-2013, 08:34 PM   #89
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ChocoKitty, have you set a date for ER yet? If not a specific date, a range?

Not pushing you, just curious.

Well, ok, maybe I'm pushing a little.
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Old 04-23-2013, 09:29 PM   #90
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I can understand that. However, the fact you put SS at zero and didn't count your $250 a month pension probably means you aren't really short at all. Yes, the pension could go away and I guess SS could vanish entirely (although at your age it would seem more likely to perhaps be less rather than non-existent). I do think it is prudent to do runs of Firecalc without SS. However, I suspect that if you put in, say, half of your projected SS and put in your pension that you will find that you don't have a shortfall.
+1 ! I use 67% of what SS says I will get. And I thought I was the ultraconservative one ! Go put SS in and see what happens.
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Old 04-23-2013, 10:32 PM   #91
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I assumed zero Social Security and I left out my tiny $250/month pension in my calculations.
If you check immediateannuities.com and see how much money it would take to buy a non-COLA annuity equivalent to your pension and Social Security monthly amounts, you might be surprised at the present value amount.

It isn't a figure I'd leave out of my SS planning! If you have been a high income earner most of your life, the SS value is pretty substantial. And it is worth even more than the immediate annuities site, because SS has an inflation index.

I don't have a budget that counts on SS being 100%, but I sure wouldn't leave it out altogether. I think we will start taking our at 62 based on the bird in the hand approach.
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Old 04-23-2013, 11:00 PM   #92
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You sound prepared to me. FWIW, I went through a very similar thought process when deciding to stay home with DD. I didn't like my job at all and attempts at finding something else did not pan out (might of had something to do with a really bad recession, LOL). It took me several years to finally pull the plug. Sometimes I have pangs of regret, but for the most part I do not, nor does DH. Our finances are structured so our expenses are low and even on one income we are able to save.

But, as someone told me too, it's not like I'll never be able to work again, right? I am realistic that I won't be returning to my former field though. Or course, I did all the calculations that said I could stay at my current job for five years and save up way more that what I could make at a PT job, or lower wage FT job down the road. That's what kept me on the fence. Is five years of misery and awful family life worth it? It's a tough decision though. It sounds like you've already reached the point of no return.
That's the situtation I'm in. Trying to stick it out for 5 more years at this life sucking job. I'll make more in 5 years at this job than I will if I worked part time for the next 30 years or full time at another job for another 10 to 15 years. My wife is tired of hearing me come home and complain about my job and being so tired that I just don't want to do anything else.

I just hope they whack me and make the decision for me. I WANT SERVANCE PAID!!!
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Old 04-24-2013, 05:03 AM   #93
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Wow, lots of excellent food for thought! I'll re-run the numbers with SS and see where it gets me. Although I've been working in this field for a long time, I'm only 43 years old (yes, I started when I was 19 as a co-op student and worked my way up -- talk about wasting my youth on w*rk!), which also accounts for my conservative approach. On the other hand, I'm seriously eyeing a June ER date. The last two weeks at the job confirmed that I'm ready to leave.

Edited to add: I signed up in the Class of 2013 thread. June 21, baby! It's time.
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Old 04-24-2013, 08:18 AM   #94
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Ah, I'm happy for you, that's excellent.
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Old 04-24-2013, 08:20 AM   #95
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Congratulations ! only 43 !!! I'm impressed
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Old 04-24-2013, 08:52 AM   #96
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Edited to add: I signed up in the Class of 2013 thread. June 21, baby! It's time.
That is what I was waiting for. Hooray for you!
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Old 04-24-2013, 04:28 PM   #97
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Have you given your notice yet? I've got to think that after 24 years in a career you hate, giving your notice has got to feel good.
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