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Old 11-14-2008, 08:52 PM   #281
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So tell, tell--is the bottom a V shape or a W?

Its going to hell shaped and we are all DOOOMED!
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New Closing Low on DJI
Old 11-17-2008, 03:56 PM   #282
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New Closing Low on DJI

I see the board has pretty much moved on past sad topics like the stock market, but nevertheless it continues to do its dirty business.

Today the DOW made a new low on a closing basis, though the old intraday low from 10/10 still stands.

My own portfolio has also made a new low, and currently stands just short of a 1/3 off sale, relative to Oct 07 high.

This is really getting to be annoying.

Ha
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:03 PM   #283
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Yep.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:10 PM   #284
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On target for DOW 0. Looks like I better brush up on my whistling because I'm going to be on the back of a trash truck pretty soon.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:41 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
I see the board has pretty much moved on past sad topics like the stock market, but nevertheless it continues to do its dirty business.

Today the DOW made a new low on a closing basis, though the old intraday low from 10/10 still stands.

My own portfolio has also made a new low, and currently stands just short of a 1/3 off sale, relative to Oct 07 high.

This is really getting to be annoying.

Ha
I am off close 40% from the highs. I still religiously check my portfolio values, but I only pay attention to dividend changes. I got a couple of increases in the last few weeks from MLP as well as one big cut. I remain convinced that we will see capitulation by exhaustion and we have entered that phase.

I suspect we will see the market bottom and it will barely merit a 1 minute news story.

Today the DOW hit another low, its 6th this year. Now for todays top story. Madonna and Brittney announce that tickets for their new "The Kiss Show and Tell" Tour, go on sale next week fans are eagerly lining up now.
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:29 PM   #286
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:31 PM   #287
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But look at the bright side: It essentially hasn't gone lower for over a month.
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:33 PM   #288
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Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?

I promise I will never call a bottom ever again. The same day I do it begins it's latest slide.
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:45 PM   #289
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Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?

I promise I will never call a bottom ever again. The same day I do it begins it's latest slide.
Please - by all means, call a bottom. Just let us know one day in advance so we can short the market.

'Course, with my great sense of timing, it'd do the opposite regardless...
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:48 PM   #290
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Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?
Yes, but essentially we haven't lost ground over the last month.
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Old 11-17-2008, 05:48 PM   #291
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I couldn't stand it. I looked. Now down 23% for the year. More than that from last years high. I'm pissed. Talking heads are back on DOW going to 6,000.
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Old 11-17-2008, 10:59 PM   #292
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I hope not I went in with $250K today
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Old 11-18-2008, 12:15 AM   #293
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I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicat or=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0 ;logscale=on;source=undefined

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
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Old 11-18-2008, 12:18 AM   #294
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I have stopped focusing too much on my investment balance for now (it's too depressing). I focus instead on slowly growing my longer-term investment income. Since October 1st, I have used money that was parked in money market funds to buy loads of shares of dividend-paying stocks, REITs and specific bond funds (corporate, TIPS and munis) to increase my annual investment income by roughly 20% so far. I am not done yet, but it's great to see at least one number go up in Quicken!
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Old 11-18-2008, 12:26 AM   #295
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I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
Hussman uses a price to peak earnings metric. The bottoms in 1982 and 1974 were both reached when price to peak earnings (S&P 500) had reached 7. If this were to happen again, the S&P would be a little above 600, or the Dow about 6000.

I think it is a very long shot that we would reach this low level, as both 1974 and 1982 were accompanied by high risk-free interest rates and inflation, as well as considerably worse unemployment than what we have today.

My bet is that we are very close to the bottom as to points, if not necessarily as to time.

This isn't just a bullsh*t bet either; I am up to my eyeballs in stock. Of course, I have been for a while.

As an aside, one meaning of this decline may be that the people who are putting their hopes into Mr. B.O. may not have much money to put into the stock market. Those with money to invest may not be quite as pumped with hope.

Ha
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Old 11-18-2008, 01:59 AM   #296
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As an aside, one meaning of this decline may be that the people who are putting their hopes into Mr. B.O. may not have much money to put into the stock market. Those with money to invest may not be quite as pumped with hope.
Uhhhhh...... I thought the idea for BO worshippers fanatics was that they would do their investing with other peoples money.......
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Old 11-18-2008, 02:06 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by Geoffrey View Post
I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicat or=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0 ;logscale=on;source=undefined

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
Stocks too generous for too long?
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:14 AM   #298
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I hope not I went in with $250K today
This guy implies you may be a little early.

We'll be in Great Depression 2 by 2011 -- here are 30 reasons why - MarketWatch
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:19 AM   #299
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This guy implies you may be a little early.
Paul Farrell makes a living using black paint. According to him, the world ended 20 years ago.
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:56 AM   #300
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Paul Farrell makes a living using black paint. According to him, the world ended 20 years ago.
Yeah, I've read his negative stuff before. But just for the sake of argument, what would one do right now? Buy gold? I would assume cd's wouldn't be worth anything if the government goes belly up. Don't get me wrong, I haven't blown a fuse yet. In fact I'm planning on going down with the ship as is. Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
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