Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-14-2008, 07:52 PM   #281
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever View Post
So tell, tell--is the bottom a V shape or a W?

Its going to hell shaped and we are all DOOOMED!
Notmuchlonger is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

New Closing Low on DJI
Old 11-17-2008, 02:56 PM   #282
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
New Closing Low on DJI

I see the board has pretty much moved on past sad topics like the stock market, but nevertheless it continues to do its dirty business.

Today the DOW made a new low on a closing basis, though the old intraday low from 10/10 still stands.

My own portfolio has also made a new low, and currently stands just short of a 1/3 off sale, relative to Oct 07 high.

This is really getting to be annoying.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 03:03 PM   #283
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustward's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,684
Yep.
Rustward is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 03:10 PM   #284
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
On target for DOW 0. Looks like I better brush up on my whistling because I'm going to be on the back of a trash truck pretty soon.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 03:41 PM   #285
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I see the board has pretty much moved on past sad topics like the stock market, but nevertheless it continues to do its dirty business.

Today the DOW made a new low on a closing basis, though the old intraday low from 10/10 still stands.

My own portfolio has also made a new low, and currently stands just short of a 1/3 off sale, relative to Oct 07 high.

This is really getting to be annoying.

Ha
I am off close 40% from the highs. I still religiously check my portfolio values, but I only pay attention to dividend changes. I got a couple of increases in the last few weeks from MLP as well as one big cut. I remain convinced that we will see capitulation by exhaustion and we have entered that phase.

I suspect we will see the market bottom and it will barely merit a 1 minute news story.

Today the DOW hit another low, its 6th this year. Now for todays top story. Madonna and Brittney announce that tickets for their new "The Kiss Show and Tell" Tour, go on sale next week fans are eagerly lining up now.
clifp is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:29 PM   #286
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
Dawg's New Avatar:


__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:31 PM   #287
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
But look at the bright side: It essentially hasn't gone lower for over a month.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:33 PM   #288
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?

I promise I will never call a bottom ever again. The same day I do it begins it's latest slide.
laurence is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:45 PM   #289
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,591
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence View Post
Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?

I promise I will never call a bottom ever again. The same day I do it begins it's latest slide.
Please - by all means, call a bottom. Just let us know one day in advance so we can short the market.

'Course, with my great sense of timing, it'd do the opposite regardless...
MichaelB is online now  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:48 PM   #290
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
Quote:
Isn't it at an all time low closing today like Ha said?
Yes, but essentially we haven't lost ground over the last month.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 04:48 PM   #291
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
I couldn't stand it. I looked. Now down 23% for the year. More than that from last years high. I'm pissed. Talking heads are back on DOW going to 6,000.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 09:59 PM   #292
Recycles dryer sheets
Steve O's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
I hope not I went in with $250K today
Steve O is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 11:15 PM   #293
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 118
I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicat or=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0 ;logscale=on;source=undefined

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
Geoffrey is offline  
Old 11-17-2008, 11:18 PM   #294
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,895
I have stopped focusing too much on my investment balance for now (it's too depressing). I focus instead on slowly growing my longer-term investment income. Since October 1st, I have used money that was parked in money market funds to buy loads of shares of dividend-paying stocks, REITs and specific bond funds (corporate, TIPS and munis) to increase my annual investment income by roughly 20% so far. I am not done yet, but it's great to see at least one number go up in Quicken!
FIREd is online now  
Old 11-17-2008, 11:26 PM   #295
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geoffrey View Post
I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
Hussman uses a price to peak earnings metric. The bottoms in 1982 and 1974 were both reached when price to peak earnings (S&P 500) had reached 7. If this were to happen again, the S&P would be a little above 600, or the Dow about 6000.

I think it is a very long shot that we would reach this low level, as both 1974 and 1982 were accompanied by high risk-free interest rates and inflation, as well as considerably worse unemployment than what we have today.

My bet is that we are very close to the bottom as to points, if not necessarily as to time.

This isn't just a bullsh*t bet either; I am up to my eyeballs in stock. Of course, I have been for a while.

As an aside, one meaning of this decline may be that the people who are putting their hopes into Mr. B.O. may not have much money to put into the stock market. Those with money to invest may not be quite as pumped with hope.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline  
Old 11-18-2008, 12:59 AM   #296
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,151
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
As an aside, one meaning of this decline may be that the people who are putting their hopes into Mr. B.O. may not have much money to put into the stock market. Those with money to invest may not be quite as pumped with hope.
Uhhhhh...... I thought the idea for BO worshippers fanatics was that they would do their investing with other peoples money.......
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline  
Old 11-18-2008, 01:06 AM   #297
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geoffrey View Post
I tend to have a lot of respect for historical trends, especially when they are of L-O-N-G duration. And, I am a great believer in "reversion to the mean." Thus, I find the following long term chart of the DOW interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicat or=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0 ;logscale=on;source=undefined

Eyeballing the chart, it seems to me that the DOW ought to be at about 7500 today if it had followed what appears to be the basic trend established between 1930 and 1985. And, because markets tend to overshoot both on the way up, and on the way down, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if the DOW overshoot the trend line on the way down bottomed at around 6000. That's just my guess -- everyone is entitled to one.
http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...81&postcount=8
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline  
Old 11-18-2008, 06:14 AM   #298
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve O View Post
I hope not I went in with $250K today
This guy implies you may be a little early.

We'll be in Great Depression 2 by 2011 -- here are 30 reasons why - MarketWatch
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline  
Old 11-18-2008, 06:19 AM   #299
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg54 View Post
This guy implies you may be a little early.
Paul Farrell makes a living using black paint. According to him, the world ended 20 years ago.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline  
Old 11-18-2008, 06:56 AM   #300
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Paul Farrell makes a living using black paint. According to him, the world ended 20 years ago.
Yeah, I've read his negative stuff before. But just for the sake of argument, what would one do right now? Buy gold? I would assume cd's wouldn't be worth anything if the government goes belly up. Don't get me wrong, I haven't blown a fuse yet. In fact I'm planning on going down with the ship as is. Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The day the bottom comes Florida Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 20 09-20-2008 09:34 AM
signs of seeing bottom? lazygood4nothinbum FIRE and Money 28 07-24-2008 06:10 PM
What do these links at bottom mean ? Delawaredave5 Forum Admin 4 05-28-2007 10:18 AM
Stocks At Bottom Arc FIRE and Money 7 09-16-2006 10:16 AM
Gold Bottom? johnlw FIRE and Money 16 06-17-2006 08:54 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:19 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.