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Old 11-18-2008, 08:05 AM   #301
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Yeah, I've read his negative stuff before. But just for the sake of argument, what would one do right now?
Buy a gun and two bullets. Use the second one if you miss your head with the first.
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:27 AM   #302
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Buy a gun and two bullets. Use the second one if you miss your head with the first.
So I take it you don't think another depression occur?
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:34 AM   #303
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So I take it you don't think another depression occur?
Shoot, me?

No, I don't.
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:44 AM   #304
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....Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
For starters, realize the difference between economics and emotion. Dawg, you have so much going for you to save you from the street. Secondly, know the difference between Wall Street and the street. Anyone care to add to this nonsense, "direct your feet to the sunny side of the street"?

This is what I will try to do whether I think a Depression is coming or not. Realize that a portfolio will fluctuate as it is being drawn down. Take another look at FIRE CALC that many of us accepted when the DOW was at 13,000. I accept that this year I may lose my cushion, next year I may be into the main number I retired on. That was part of the deal I made. When I ran the numbers, I could have retired on a number 20% less, so I tell myself, I will still be okay for a long time.

And as a practical matter, I won't look at the numbers too often.
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Old 11-18-2008, 09:08 AM   #305
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Shoot, me?
Ok, better you than me.

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Old 11-18-2008, 09:28 AM   #306
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just do the opposite of what this guy says and you should be OK. i've been watching him on CNBC for over a year and he's been wrong every time.

Charts Predict: Dow to 6,700 in 'Accelerated' Slump - Companies * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average could sink as low as 6,700 before the year is out, in another accelerated down move similar to October's slump, Roelof van den Akker, chartist from ING Wholesale Banking, told CNBC.

"The price target for this year is still 6,700, so that's a lot of downside potential," Akker told "Squawk Box Europe."
Charts of the Dow show the "completion of a bearish pattern," which is "suggesting the same accelerated down move as back in October," Akker said.
The Dow lost over 13 percent of its value in October. It closed at 8,273.58 on Monday, which is over 1,500 points higher than Akker's prediction for the year.
If the Dow closes below 8,175 then the next level of support for the index will be between 7,450 and 7,200, which were the October lows of 2002 and 2003, Akker said.
"The picture is bearish and we expect lower prices within the coming days and also weeks," he added.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:25 AM   #307
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Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
I'd ask Paul Farrell if he's hiring.

Oh, wait, depression and not Depression? In the case of the little "d" then I'd consult a doctor. The submarine force has been testing out these amazing anti-depressants...
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:39 AM   #308
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I'd ask Paul Farrell if he's hiring.

Oh, wait, depression and not Depression? In the case of the little "d" then I'd consult a doctor. The submarine force has been testing out these amazing anti-depressants...
That's my backup plan. I'm hoarding codeine.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:44 AM   #309
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I'd ask Paul Farrell if he's hiring.

Oh, wait, depression and not Depression? In the case of the little "d" then I'd consult a doctor. The submarine force has been testing out these amazing anti-depressants...
Excuse me for posting.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:52 AM   #310
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Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
Stock up on beans, baloney, and bullets.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:57 AM   #311
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Hang in there - bundle up for a long winter. There was a guy on the news giving away his season tickets to the Chiefs after last Sundays loss to the Saint's and there were tv interviews of scalpers out front with unsold tickets. Plus Monday I had to get his 13 yr old from school - head cold from the game - he was working.

Sometimes these things take longer to sort out than we can watch and worry.

Pssst Wellesley - 5.84% SEC yield and the Norwegian widow owns 5/10 of their top ten dividend stocks.

heh heh heh - we gotta be close. Unfortunately we could bump along for a while.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:59 AM   #312
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Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.


All those things our Depression-era parents told us to do (Young Dreamers, we are probably talking about your grandparents). Here are some that I recall:
  • Pay off the mortgage and all debt.
  • Save money any way you can.
  • Develop a lot of varied skills to make money off the books, rather than from a job.
  • Grow vegetables
  • Learn to can.
  • Use a clothesline rather than paying for a dryer
  • Use space heaters or a wood stove, not central HVAC
  • Pray a lot (I'm going to skip this one! )
  • Be kind to others in need, because you might need them to be kind to you one day.
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Old 11-18-2008, 11:01 AM   #313
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this thread is deliciously ironic
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Old 11-18-2008, 11:03 AM   #314
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heh heh heh - we gotta be close. Unfortunately we could bump along for a while.
I hope you are right about being close! I just have no idea at all of what to expect in the next few years. Guess we can play it by ear.
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Old 11-18-2008, 11:30 AM   #315
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I hope you are right about being close! I just have no idea at all of what to expect in the next few years. Guess we can play it by ear.
I would expect a long slog back up. There will be selling at all rally levels as investors continue to get out of equities. Many people (myself included) have readjusted their risk level and that means less equities going forward. So if I plan to lighten on a substantial rally I would expect many others to do the same. I think many people have soured on equities (and Wall st. in general) and it will take some time to bring them back. Just my .02 worth.

BTW I'm not glum about it and plan to live my life to the fullest possible.
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Old 11-18-2008, 01:40 PM   #316
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Excuse me for posting.
Hey, no offense intended. In a thread full of other jokers I thought you were yukking it up with the rest of the crowd. Or perhaps I was misled when you posted that photo of a smoking gun.

Whether it was a Depression or a depression, I think you'd draw the line at giving up golf.
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Old 11-18-2008, 01:44 PM   #317
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Hey, no offense intended. In a thread full of other jokers I thought you were yukking it up with the rest of the crowd. Or perhaps I was misled when you posted that photo of a smoking gun.

Whether it was a Depression or a depression, I think you'd draw the line at giving up golf.
No problem. I probably am depressed. Think I will go bang my head for a while.
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Old 11-18-2008, 02:40 PM   #318
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No problem. I probably am depressed. Think I will go bang my head for a while.

I think I may join you . The constant downward market is getting to me .
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Old 11-18-2008, 02:57 PM   #319
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I would expect a long slog back up. There will be selling at all rally levels as investors continue to get out of equities. Many people (myself included) have readjusted their risk level and that means less equities going forward. So if I plan to lighten on a substantial rally I would expect many others to do the same. I think many people have soured on equities (and Wall st. in general) and it will take some time to bring them back. Just my .02 worth.
I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once we they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.

This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
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Old 11-18-2008, 04:17 PM   #320
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I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once we they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.

This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
I like your opinion more than mine.
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