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Old 11-18-2008, 06:36 PM   #321
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I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once we they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.

This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
Yep, there are a lot of people who have gotten out in fear and panic convinced that it will keep going down eternally (depression talk all around us), so when it starts to go up many of those people will start feeling just the opposite, afraid to miss out on the gains. It'll take quite a bit of upward movement before they're convinced though. And there will be some rallies and dips that will shake some out. But history shows that strong initial recoveries are launched from these kinds of levels.

Look at '74. Things looked terrible back then after a long bear, with high inflation, oil crisis, etc. The market roared back up about 73% in a year a a half before flattening out and moving sideways for a long time until the big BULL started in '82.

So it's my contention that the money will be made in a short period of time, and if you're out down here and try to move in after it's moved up convincingly you're going to be disappointed again. Hopefully we don't have significantly more down side from here, but I'm keeping some cash ready in case we do. I just have to keep myself from moving it in too soon!
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Old 11-18-2008, 06:57 PM   #322
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Look at '74. Things looked terrible back then after a long bear, with high inflation, oil crisis, etc. The market roared back up about 73% in a year a a half before flattening out and moving sideways for a long time until the big bear started in '82.
The BULL started in 1982.
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:10 PM   #323
Recycles dryer sheets
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The BULL started in 1982.
Oops, sorry. Meant to say Bull!
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:35 PM   #324
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Come on guys, the bottom is near, the only good option is to grind it out. Betting on a loss may guarantee it for your portfolio. Plenty of folks on this board that were buying 2000 to 2008 and did well.
Yeah I moved my plan to increase bonds by 2% a year instead of 1%, but at 45 with probably 10yrs to ER following the AA and buying at prices that may be the buy of the century is the plan I'm executing. You folks pointed me at Four Pillars and a bear market for an accumulator should be a dream come true, what a waste if I am too frightened to buy. So I am buying.
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Well, DOW down 400 plus points...
Old 11-19-2008, 03:05 PM   #325
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Well, DOW down 400 plus points...

Looks like that ahole Roubini is going to get his wish. DOW 6,000 coming up. But that's ok, I'm Mr. Happy.

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Old 11-19-2008, 03:10 PM   #326
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:11 PM   #327
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Dawg, it's nice to see you stopped banging your head in to the wall, looks like you are cheering up.
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:24 PM   #328
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I believe the BUY signal will be roughly a DOW 4175 and or S&P 457, it still may go lower but it will be a better buy than right now at those levels.
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:45 PM   #329
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S&P in the 600s is what I am planning for but we may get a rally before that happens. The hedge funds will keep selling through Q1 I bet.

Seems we would need to see at least 1 or 2 full earning season reports to make some kind of guess as to how bad the damage is in the economy. Earnings are just going to be awful for most companies I would think.
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