Originally Posted by Bestwifeever
I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once
they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.
This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
Yep, there are a lot of people who have gotten out in fear and panic convinced that it will keep going down eternally (depression talk all around us), so when it starts to go up many of those people will start feeling just the opposite, afraid to miss out on the gains. It'll take quite a bit of upward movement before they're convinced though. And there will be some rallies and dips that will shake some out. But history shows that strong initial recoveries are launched from these kinds of levels.
Look at '74. Things looked terrible
back then after a long bear, with high inflation, oil crisis, etc. The market roared back up about 73% in a year a a half before flattening out and moving sideways for a long time until the big BULL started in '82.
So it's my contention that the money will be made in a short period of time, and if you're out down here and try to move in after it's moved up convincingly you're going to be disappointed again. Hopefully we don't have significantly more down side from here, but I'm keeping some cash ready in case we do. I just have to keep myself from moving it in too soon!