Calling the bottom! - Page 7

cute fuzzy bunny · 10-10-2008, 06:18 PM

Okay, you called my bluff. But this is the LAST TIME. I MEAN IT. And you better cuddle us for a while afterwards!

Nords · 10-11-2008, 01:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg54

I don't care where the market finishes. I just want that bottom.

Oh, c'mon, I can't be the only guy here thinking "Nice board, but I wonder if she really surfs..."

whitestick · 10-11-2008, 03:25 AM

board? surf?
Oh, I see, she's at a beach. Didn't even notice that the first five times, I looked at her picture.

chinaco · 10-11-2008, 03:42 AM

I am not sure if we are at the bottom or not... but If I had long-term money to invest... I would be moving it into the stock market in stages spread over a series of months (average it).

But all I am investing is my normal investments in the 401k.

Of course, my allocation now close to 52/48 where is was about 70/30 last year. My target was 60/40... which I was intending to rebalance to over the next couple of years.

But since I intend to ER in 3 years... I am not going to sell bonds and buy stocks... we could be looking at a longer recovery time.

What I intend to do is rebalance some of my stock allocations into areas that are beat down. For example, I want to get a little more international exposure. I will probably do that now or very soon.

BunsGettingFirm · 10-18-2008, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cube_rat

Gosh, I come back to this site looking for hope and investment advice during this turbulent time, open this thread and see butts! Don't make me post a naked Kathy Bates picture!

You can post all the naked Kathy Bates pictures you want as long as you post one picture of yourself while you were a dancer in SF.

al_bundy · 10-18-2008, 09:09 AM

the bottom isn't going to come until everyone who has a crazy idea like mortgaging their house to "invest" will lose their money and get stomped out

gqlefty · 10-18-2008, 09:17 AM

I'm going to put in 1/2 now and DCA the rest... That way I have a little satisfaction I did the right thing with at least 1/2 of it !!!

ls99 · 10-18-2008, 09:32 AM

Just looking.

charlie · 10-23-2008, 09:54 AM

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

Happy Haloween everybody!!!

Cheers,

Charlie

NW-Bound · 10-23-2008, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlie

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday ... ?

It's way below 5-year low...

Heading towards 10-year low!

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

**ziggy29** · 10-23-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlie

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

Actually, the intraday low was hit on October 10.

**REWahoo** · 10-23-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlie

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

?? Yahoo says the 52 week range low is a low of 839.80 and a high of 1,552.76. That would show it 45.92% lower than the 52 week high, right?

What am I missing?

NW-Bound · 10-23-2008, 10:10 AM

At market open this morning, just bought 1000 XLKs, 1000 XLUs, and 500 XLPs.

Wish me luck.

Well, if I lose money, I still find solace in reading about people who bought at the "earlier bottoms", before I did.

NW-Bound · 10-23-2008, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

?? Yahoo says the 52 week range low is a low of 839.80 and a high of 1,552.76. That would show it 45.92% lower than the 52 week high, right?

What am I missing?

Your range includes the intraday high/low. Some people only look at market close.

Orchidflower · 10-23-2008, 10:14 AM

If the bottom and capitulation is reached when the public can no longer hack one more show or bit of news on the falling stock market...well, it must be at bottom or near then. I've reached that point this morning, and am sick of being sick to my stomach about all this. Enough! Call the freaking bottom today...

**REWahoo** · 10-23-2008, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Your range includes the intraday high/low. Some people only look at market close.

OK, but my point is the low is more like 46% off the 52 week high, not 72%....

NW-Bound · 10-23-2008, 10:16 AM

Oops...

Since I bought this morning, it cannot be the bottom, by definition.

Excuse me, as I rush off to sell...

retire@40 · 10-23-2008, 10:27 AM

I think we are at the bottom as well.

There is too much bouncing up and down in this range for it not to be the bottom.

You can actually time the market here since we can see the bottom edge of 8500 for the DOW. There may be lots more up and down bouncing so buy in at 8500 and hold, or sell at 9000 if you want to speculate or day trade.

Canadian Grunt · 10-23-2008, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Oops...

Since I bought this morning, it cannot be the bottom, by definition.

Excuse me, as I rush off to sell...

You don't need a market bottom to make money. I have been doing a fair bit of research on Buffet's previous stock buys...He never gets the bottom of the stock price. Often he buys good companies at a premium. When he buys into a tanking market he often buys a fair bit above the bottom.

He has the foresight and belief that the market and stock will eventually rise above his purchase price. As he states quite a bit, he doesn't care where the market is on a purchase...he just looks at the metrics of the stock and buys at a discount or when the stock is undervalued relative to its expected value in the future. He uses the dividend discount model to evaluate purchases, which anyone who is decent with numbers can employ.

His record stands alone, and he is buying into this market.

NW-Bound · 10-23-2008, 10:32 AM

R40,

I am not usually a technician or chartist, but agree with you that the volatility must die down, before we can start crawling ourselves out of this hole. Since I have a lot of cash (stop-loss tripping like crazy on the way down), I am attempting a bit of day trading. Didn't work for me before, but being stubborn as I am, keep telling myself I will get the hang of it someday... Sigh...

Never care to gamble in casinos, but this kind of market brings out the gambler in yourself, I am telling ya...

10-10-2008, 06:18 PM	#121
cute fuzzy bunny Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Losing my whump Posts: 22,527	Okay, you called my bluff. But this is the LAST TIME. I MEAN IT. And you better cuddle us for a while afterwards! __________________ Many an optimist has become rich by buying out a pessimist

10-11-2008, 03:25 AM	#123
whitestick Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 368	board? surf? Oh, I see, she's at a beach. Didn't even notice that the first five times, I looked at her picture. __________________ Mens ability to see the future is limited by their horizons of today! Unknown!

10-11-2008, 03:42 AM	#124
chinaco Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,949	I am not sure if we are at the bottom or not... but If I had long-term money to invest... I would be moving it into the stock market in stages spread over a series of months (average it). But all I am investing is my normal investments in the 401k. Of course, my allocation now close to 52/48 where is was about 70/30 last year. My target was 60/40... which I was intending to rebalance to over the next couple of years. But since I intend to ER in 3 years... I am not going to sell bonds and buy stocks... we could be looking at a longer recovery time. What I intend to do is rebalance some of my stock allocations into areas that are beat down. For example, I want to get a little more international exposure. I will probably do that now or very soon. __________________ Disclaimer: I make no warranty or guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of this information. I am not a financial planner, my comments only represent my opinion.

10-18-2008, 09:17 AM	#127
gqlefty Dryer sheet wannabe Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 13	Bottom??? I'm going to put in 1/2 now and DCA the rest... That way I have a little satisfaction I did the right thing with at least 1/2 of it !!!

10-18-2008, 09:32 AM	#128
ls99 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 429	Bottom? Top? Just looking. __________________ There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.

10-18-2008, 09:09 AM	#126
al_bundy Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,413	the bottom isn't going to come until everyone who has a crazy idea like mortgaging their house to "invest" will lose their money and get stomped out

10-23-2008, 09:54 AM	#129
charlie Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Dallas Posts: 1,069	Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high? Happy Haloween everybody!!! Cheers, Charlie

10-23-2008, 10:10 AM	#133
NW-Bound Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 575	At market open this morning, just bought 1000 XLKs, 1000 XLUs, and 500 XLPs. Wish me luck. Well, if I lose money, I still find solace in reading about people who bought at the "earlier bottoms", before I did.

10-23-2008, 10:14 AM	#135
Orchidflower Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Il-Ia. border Posts: 1,005	If the bottom and capitulation is reached when the public can no longer hack one more show or bit of news on the falling stock market...well, it must be at bottom or near then. I've reached that point this morning, and am sick of being sick to my stomach about all this. Enough! Call the freaking bottom today... __________________ "Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -- Confucius

10-23-2008, 10:16 AM	#137
NW-Bound Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 575	Oops... Since I bought this morning, it cannot be the bottom, by definition. Excuse me, as I rush off to sell...

10-23-2008, 10:27 AM	#138
retire@40 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 2,583	I think we are at the bottom as well. There is too much bouncing up and down in this range for it not to be the bottom. You can actually time the market here since we can see the bottom edge of 8500 for the DOW. There may be lots more up and down bouncing so buy in at 8500 and hold, or sell at 9000 if you want to speculate or day trade. __________________ No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo

10-23-2008, 10:32 AM	#140
NW-Bound Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 575	R40, I am not usually a technician or chartist, but agree with you that the volatility must die down, before we can start crawling ourselves out of this hole. Since I have a lot of cash (stop-loss tripping like crazy on the way down), I am attempting a bit of day trading. Didn't work for me before, but being stubborn as I am, keep telling myself I will get the hang of it someday... Sigh... Never care to gamble in casinos, but this kind of market brings out the gambler in yourself, I am telling ya...

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: