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Old 10-24-2008, 12:17 PM   #161
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And maybe call another bottom.
So that would be the New! and Improved! Bottom? ? ? ?

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Old 10-24-2008, 01:51 PM   #162
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still a chance we'll close up for the day
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:56 PM   #163
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So that would be the New! and Improved! Bottom? ? ? ?

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Some market liposuction...
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:18 PM   #164
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we might have a rally going
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:19 PM   #165
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Rally = Dow drops 200 or less?
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:36 PM   #166
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we're above the upper limit of the 5 day trendline and still staying above it. and the average price has been trending up since wednesday morning
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Old 10-24-2008, 03:20 PM   #167
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Looks like we dipped a little bit below T-Al's October 10th bottom. But did anyone notice? There isn't as much panic. I wonder if this means we are closer to a true market bottom.
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Old 10-24-2008, 05:58 PM   #168
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i thought only the nasdaq dipped under the intraday oct 10th bottom?

Bob Prechter's newsletter comes out at 5:30pm and he's still calling for a final wave down. i'm very careful with that prediction because in 1987 it didn't happen that way and we are very close to 1987 as far as the price pattern
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Old 10-24-2008, 06:09 PM   #169
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TV talkingheads predicted Monday would also be "grim" (so then I switched to Martha Stewart to see her touching the bottom of some puppies as she used the Furminator on them, as noted in thefed's dog vs. wife thread).
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Old 10-24-2008, 07:42 PM   #170
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TV talkingheads predicted Monday would also be "grim" (so then I switched to Martha Stewart to see her touching the bottom of some puppies as she used the Furminator on them, as noted in thefed's dog vs. wife thread).
The talking heads hope every day is a grim day. **** them.
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Old 10-24-2008, 08:04 PM   #171
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i thought only the nasdaq dipped under the intraday oct 10th bottom?
October 10, 2008
Dow: 8451.19
S&P 500: 899.22

October 24, 2008 (Today)
Dow: 8378.95
S&P 500: 876.77

(Yahoo Finance, historical adj. closing prices)
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Old 10-24-2008, 08:19 PM   #172
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got to be close to a bottom because all I want to do now is go the the bathroom, close the door, and puke. and thats before i even look at portfolio.
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Old 10-24-2008, 08:39 PM   #173
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R40,

I am not usually a technician or chartist, but agree with you that the volatility must die down, before we can start crawling ourselves out of this hole. Since I have a lot of cash (stop-loss tripping like crazy on the way down), I am attempting a bit of day trading. Didn't work for me before, but being stubborn as I am, keep telling myself I will get the hang of it someday... Sigh...

Never care to gamble in casinos, but this kind of market brings out the gambler in yourself, I am telling ya...
I reccomend "EEV" for gambling it enjoys down markets and I have been lucky...but it really moves so you need to watch it using only "play money".
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Old 10-25-2008, 08:23 AM   #174
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October 10, 2008
Dow: 8451.19
S&P 500: 899.22

October 24, 2008 (Today)
Dow: 8378.95
S&P 500: 876.77

(Yahoo Finance, historical adj. closing prices)

meant the intraday bottom

SP500 hit 839 on the 10th
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Old 10-25-2008, 09:23 AM   #175
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meant the intraday bottom

SP500 hit 839 on the 10th
I believe if the past postings were checked I called the 10th the bottom. It may not have been on this thread. Since I am never wrong, , it's all upside from here.

This whole mess is just wearing me out. I was in the market in the early 1970's, in 1987, in 2001/2 and I've never seen such gut wrenching moves day after day after day.......

It's like all the computers in the world have their "sell" buttons pushed at the same time with an occasional "buy" button thrown in to mix it up a little.
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Old 10-25-2008, 09:35 AM   #176
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i was very close to going long around 3pm yesterday but didn't. read my newsletters today, looked at charts and i'll probably go short on monday. i think there is another 10% downside from here. plus or minus 2 points

of course this can change at any time during the day depending on how the market works itself out. wouldn't be surprised if we pop to 910 - 920 SP500 first thing Monday and down from there
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:26 AM   #177
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of course this can change at any time during the day depending on how the market works itself out. wouldn't be surprised if we pop to 910 - 920 SP500 first thing Monday and down from there
I don't think the market can do anything that would really surprise me anymore. It could go limit down and close for the day or go up 20%. This thing has no logical force driving it at this time. It's overwhelmed with panic and emotion.

On the plus side the basic "cause" of the mess, the credit crunch, is getting taken care of with what appears to be an endless supply of money from governments. They will recapitalize the banks come hell or high water. Whether the banks loan to anyone remains to be seen. I expect a round of interest rate cuts by various central banks that will be greeted with a giant yawn by the markets.

The impact of lower oil and other commodities remains to be seen. Two months ago the price of commodities was "threatening" the market and economy. Now, it's the other way around. All this and we haven't even officially been declared to be in a recession.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:36 AM   #178
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Still do not believe it is time to get into stocks. there is no positive driving force right now.

Media keeps talking of a potential "Depression" which sends us hoarding money and not buying consumer goods, Election is coming up and the impact of a Dem majority is not understood, IRAQ/IRAN/Afgan etc..

Just see more chance for it to go down than up..... I thought 9000 was the bottom a month ago now who knows...3000?

Oh and happy Holidays!
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Old 10-25-2008, 12:16 PM   #179
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The bottom is most likely going to be the range we are in now, give or take 5%. The US has bought into or otherwise made all the main banks quasi-federal financial agncies. IMHO we should not expect to be able to benchmark the bottom. If you bail out now you have zero chance of recovering the losses from this down spiral on your mutual funds when the market goes back to its upper mean line, which it will eventually do. (If it does not then we are back to living in caves!)

My real concern is that this federal intervention has the potential for unintended consequences, such as undue creation of new money supply (from the open FED money window and the so called bail out funding) resulting in massive dollar devaluation and inflation. There are real bargains in this market, so long as one can last as long as a decade it will take for this market to unwind and for the new market to form a rational basis for trade and value. That will take at 20-40 months to mature, in my opinion.

The ironic side of this is that there will be so much new regulatory intervention in this new market risk/reward ratios will narrow and the better investments will likely be private investments in specific projects or ventures, which have much more unregulated risk, more outright fraud, as well as potential upside if one gets into the right deal. If you regulate the downside of risk, you also cut off much of the upside.
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:15 PM   #180
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Just see more chance for it to go down than up..... I thought 9000 was the bottom a month ago now who knows...3000?

Oh and happy Holidays!
Let's just take all the suspense out of it and call for a -0- DOW. Can't go any lower than that, can it?
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