Calling the bottom!

[al_bundy]

the bottom isn't going to come until everyone who has a crazy idea like mortgaging their house to "invest" will lose their money and get stomped out

 

[gqlefty]

Bottom

I'm going to put in 1/2 now and DCA the rest... That way I have a little satisfaction I did the right thing with at least 1/2 of it !!!

 

[ls99]

Bottom? Top?

Just looking.

 

[charlie]

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

Happy Haloween everybody!!!

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[NW-Bound]

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday ... ?

It's way below 5-year low...

Heading towards 10-year low!

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

 

[ziggy29]

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

Actually, the intraday low was hit on October 10.

 

[REWahoo]

Did you realize that the S&P500 hit a 52 week low yesterday and is now 72.77% lower than the 52 week high?

?? Yahoo says the 52 week range low is a low of 839.80 and a high of 1,552.76. That would show it 45.92% lower than the 52 week high, right?

What am I missing?

 

[NW-Bound]

At market open this morning, just bought 1000 XLKs, 1000 XLUs, and 500 XLPs.

Wish me luck.

Well, if I lose money, I still find solace in reading about people who bought at the "earlier bottoms", before I did.

 

[NW-Bound]

?? Yahoo says the 52 week range low is a low of 839.80 and a high of 1,552.76. That would show it 45.92% lower than the 52 week high, right?

What am I missing?

Your range includes the intraday high/low. Some people only look at market close.

 

[Orchidflower]

If the bottom and capitulation is reached when the public can no longer hack one more show or bit of news on the falling stock market...well, it must be at bottom or near then. I've reached that point this morning, and am sick of being sick to my stomach about all this. Enough! Call the freaking bottom today...

 

[REWahoo]

Your range includes the intraday high/low. Some people only look at market close.

OK, but my point is the low is more like 46% off the 52 week high, not 72%....

 

[NW-Bound]

Oops...

Since I bought this morning, it cannot be the bottom, by definition.

Excuse me, as I rush off to sell...

 

[retire@40]

I think we are at the bottom as well.

There is too much bouncing up and down in this range for it not to be the bottom.

You can actually time the market here since we can see the bottom edge of 8500 for the DOW. There may be lots more up and down bouncing so buy in at 8500 and hold, or sell at 9000 if you want to speculate or day trade.

 

[Canadian Grunt]

Oops...

Since I bought this morning, it cannot be the bottom, by definition.

Excuse me, as I rush off to sell...

You don't need a market bottom to make money. I have been doing a fair bit of research on Buffet's previous stock buys...He never gets the bottom of the stock price. Often he buys good companies at a premium. When he buys into a tanking market he often buys a fair bit above the bottom.

He has the foresight and belief that the market and stock will eventually rise above his purchase price. As he states quite a bit, he doesn't care where the market is on a purchase...he just looks at the metrics of the stock and buys at a discount or when the stock is undervalued relative to its expected value in the future. He uses the dividend discount model to evaluate purchases, which anyone who is decent with numbers can employ.

His record stands alone, and he is buying into this market.

 

[NW-Bound]

R40,

I am not usually a technician or chartist, but agree with you that the volatility must die down, before we can start crawling ourselves out of this hole. Since I have a lot of cash (stop-loss tripping like crazy on the way down), I am attempting a bit of day trading. Didn't work for me before, but being stubborn as I am, keep telling myself I will get the hang of it someday... Sigh...

Never care to gamble in casinos, but this kind of market brings out the gambler in yourself, I am telling ya...

 

[TromboneAl]

Actually, the intraday low was hit on October 10.

Just call me the Oracle.

Ah... Ignore this post.

 

[NW-Bound]

CG,

In general I agree with WB, and yourself. But this down market is quite a bit different than any we have been through.

Saw an interview on CNBC with a panel of 3 veteran MF managers (age: 70+). After the interview, a commentator (in his 40s) said "I have respect for these managers who have long tenure in their work. But they all conceded that this is no bear market like they have seen. Then, how can they predict that the recovery will be like they have seen in the past?" Other reporters did not have much to say after that...

 

[FinanceDude]

CG,

In general I agree with WB, and yourself. But this down market is quite a bit different than any we have been through.

Saw an interview on CNBC with a panel of 3 veteran MF managers (age: 70+). After the interview, a commentator (in his 40s) said "I have respect for these managers who have long tenure in their work. But they all conceded that this is no bear market like they have seen. Then, how can they predict that the recovery will be like they have seen in the past?" Other reporters did not have much to say after that...

Great point......which is the VERY REASON we need more folks in their 40's IN THE SENATE.....too many folks over 70 and 80 in there..........

 

[charlie]

My bad!

According to Vanguard, the "range" from 52 week high to 52 week low
was reached yesterday at 72.77%. The actual high was $142.83 and
the low reached yesterday was $82.67. The drop from high to low was
42.1%. The "range" is the percentage needed to recover from the 52 week low to the 52 week high. Both numbers are scary.

Next time I will do the math myself before posting.

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[ziggy29]

Gee, what a surprise. Another rally fizzled.

 

[Gotadimple]

We've hit bottom

Well, at least according to the Washington Post, and if they've implied it, shouldn't it be true?

From the 10/22/08 edition, the article describes bottom-feeding with interviews from experts. Any time I see interviews from 'experts', including denegration of Jim Cramer, I figure the worst is over.

bargains galore search results on washingtonpost.com&

 

[al_bundy]

we might just end in the green today

 

[OAG]

93 Down as I write this - Have to wait until the bewitching hour (3 - 4 pm).

 

[ziggy29]

93 Down as I write this - Have to wait until the bewitching hour (3 - 4 pm).

That's just the Dow. Most everything else is a *lot* worse than that on a percentage basis. REITs are down 8%. MDY (midcaps) down 6%. Russ 2K down nearly 5%.

 

[al_bundy]

maybe not