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Calling the bottom!
Old 10-08-2008, 12:29 PM   #1
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Calling the bottom!

I think thats it. Not to say we wont still have a few red days, but I think the worst of it is over and things will start turning up before long.

At a minimum, aint it nice to read something positive?
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:44 PM   #2
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It probably is fairly near, whenever the banks stop de-leveraging themselves, there should be a significant correction in the market to reflect the actual earnings of the companies. The banks are having to sell regardless of the cost in order to meet all the debts being called in.
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:55 PM   #3
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60 days after crisis for the smoke to mostly clear. Since you could put the start of the real fire (the credit freeze) as somewhere between 9/17 and 9/29, by the end of Nov 08 we should have some settling down.

I forget exactly which date Lehman declared bankruptcy. That probably marks the start.

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Old 10-08-2008, 12:55 PM   #4
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I think thats it. Not to say we wont still have a few red days, but I think the worst of it is over and things will start turning up before long.

At a minimum, aint it nice to read something positive?
I'll drink to that!
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:56 PM   #5
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I'm going to abstain from proclaiming today as the bottom for a few days. Heck, I may even wait a few weeks. For safety.
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:57 PM   #6
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I'll drink to that!
Just put in 10K into VTI. I put my money where my mouth is (while crossing fingers).
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:58 PM   #7
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I'll drink to that!
I've been doing a lot of that lately...
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-08-2008, 01:06 PM   #8
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For some reason, this thread just doesnt seem right....A discussion of bottoms by CFB without a Vida pic?
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:08 PM   #9
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The bottom for the DOW is still a few months off. It's going down to 7,267

Remember, you heard it here first!!!

At this point I'm down 22% and holding steady. Good thing I decided to start a second career!!!
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:24 PM   #10
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I hope you are right CFB.....I am considering doing some rebalancing this week in my 401K/IRAs - I am holding on to my cash - if I threw in the cash and the market went down to 6000 - I would not be sleeping well. But if it was all up from here I would feel pretty darn good - I need to sit on my hands again......this fear/greed thing is very tough to deal with.
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:26 PM   #11
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If I had to guess it's near bottom. Or near enough I would feel no need to be greedy about waiting. Only problem is, I dont know how to take advantage of it really. I suppose throwing a bunch more money in my 401k index funds, but im already contributing max. or more in an IRA but most of my free money is already going to those two sources.

Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:28 PM   #12
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Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?
Sacrifice a virgin?
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:41 PM   #13
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I hope it's at the bottom. I'm getting tired of the pics showing the Wall Street guys wailing and rubbing their eyes. If it gets worse, we may see daggers and ropes.
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:51 PM   #14
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Just my humble opinion, but we aren't even at the lows of 2002(2003?), so I'm not convinced of a bottom. I'm waiting for the cover of TIME to say, "The death of equities" or something like that before I scream "BUY!"

Although Kramer did tell everyone to get out, so that's a good sign.
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:04 PM   #15
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You know what you get when you pick a bottom!
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:05 PM   #16
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Last hour of trading. Up 200 or down 400 in the last hour?
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:06 PM   #17
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doubt it, more likely a rally of 20% to 30% from here and then more downside. i'm thinking we'll go below 2002 another smaller rally, a final capitulation like in August - October 2002 and that would be the bottom.

i think the bottom will be between 768 and 600
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:10 PM   #18
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Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?
If you have any cash/bonds in your portfolio, you could put some of that in the market (but you have to call it "market timing" or tactical asset allocation).

You could add to some down-trodden asset classes (I've started a thread here pondering a few).
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:14 PM   #19
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If you have any cash/bonds in your portfolio, you could put some of that in the market (but you have to call it "market timing" or tactical asset allocation).
It wouldn't be what I'd consider "market timing" if there were some mechanical thresholds that kick in when you are a certain percentage out of whack with your target allocation. For example, if you have an asset class that you want to represent 20% of your portfolio, you may sell it if it hits 25% or buy it if it drops below 15%.

If you just rebalance on a gut feeling, yeah, that's market timing.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:32 PM   #20
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It wouldn't be what I'd consider "market timing" if there were some mechanical thresholds that kick in when you are a certain percentage out of whack with your target allocation. For example, if you have an asset class that you want to represent 20% of your portfolio, you may sell it if it hits 25% or buy it if it drops below 15%.

If you just rebalance on a gut feeling, yeah, that's market timing.
First Gramatica kicks the potential game winner wide right, then wide left - and the Saint's are the proud owner of the cellar in their league.

Technical bottom - don't know but I plan to start nibbling later this month.

Hope springs eternal - not sure what to chase. I know in 1974 I misread Ben Graham's 'middle way' for at least twenty years until Wellesley's top ten holdings brought it on home to me.

heh heh heh - you 'knew' I was gonna slip a little Psst Wellesley in there - right? .

Appdx 4. The New Speculation in Common Stocks, Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor.
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