Can we colaborate, e.g, build model portfolio?

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 Brewer, yes alluded too it before. Completely legal just get the IRS paperwork right. Yes, stacks of 100 FRN in a private vault in Switzerland - secure enough. Just kidding, but most people don't know or won't go through the hassle. That $ stays outside US now.

Would not ever consider doing so. You are letting yourself in for a world of hurt and headaches as a US citizen.

[rjohnla]

Brewer, You are right. I have had this out since 1998. There's 1% excise tax, and you have to file with IRS in Detroit annually and now IRS DC annually. What people don't realize fully is if your assets are all in US they are subject to banking holidays, market closings, withdrawal limits, (possibly converted to USG 30 year bonds (talk about in 401k's to help people, basically confiscated) and the excise tax is low, if they want to stem flow they can easily increase to 80% excise tax, party over. The USG has put those punitive barriers in place before. Also, you get great liability protection "You write: "I was in car accident, at fault, please send all USD so I can settle claim". Swiss: 'no way, you are not doing this based on free will.' Have the US Person(s) and their Lawyer file in Swiss court. (I hope they have a lot of money.) Need a Swiss lawyer as well. In past couple of years wealthy people have been doing this more & more & the USG does not like it. But it's legal, so someday they'll just change the law. Repatriate USD, sorry I only have Singapore dollars, repatriate gold, sorry only have Swiss Francs. Because you can change it anytime. And, I have advisors watching if this needs to be done. Again completely legal, as well as what you do with it outside the US without breaking any laws of course; there really is no need for that. That's what I consider real int'l diversification and safety. Plus can move it to an overseas broker and buy investments not allowed in US by SEC. Blah, blah...but would recommend it with that rainy day money.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 Blah, blah...but would recommend it with that rainy day money.

My rainy day money is in shotshells and MREs.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 Brewer, this is what I mean about portfolio. A lot of advisors will recommend trades they got into in 2011 and already made the big money. You think there is significant growth left, think so? Fyi, there's Federal Law that prohibits the export of natural gas. Something needs to done there or, heck I don't know...

The ER forum in general is not wild about trade idea like this, so we generally do not discuss, or at least I do not.

I just took profits on the first bit of my exposure to this sector today. I am still 95% in of my original position, but this stuff has run far and fast lately. I think there is still significant upside, but the very easiest money has likely been made.

[rjohnla]

Brewer, yep. Cover all bases.

[rjohnla]

Brewer - ok, on "ER forum in general is not wild about trade idea like this"

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Some time last year it was clear natural gas was at unsustainably low prices. Gluts have a way of being used up and no producer was committing new capital to gas production while every large user of gas you can imagine was opening new plants in the US. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what would happen, but the equities were priced as if $2 gas would last forever. It did not and the higher price levels are being priced into the equities. Yee-ha!

Hey Brewer..have you seen this analyst meeting recap? I'm about both gas and crude...


Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) news: Key Takeaways From Enterprise Products Partners LP's Recent Analyst Day - Seeking Alpha

[rjohnla]

Brewer, sorry for jumping in. But my guess is you'll have something to say about what I write: Fracking - maybe. Oil & Gas: No. Look at the Baltic Dry Index, indicator of trade and oil/gas use to move things BDIY Quote - Baltic Dry Index - Bloomberg
Does not look so good. Why? Demand is falling.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Hey Brewer..have you seen this analyst meeting recap? I'm about both gas and crude... Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) news: Key Takeaways From Enterprise Products Partners LP's Recent Analyst Day - Seeking Alpha

Interesting, thanks. I think they are still too down on natural gas, personally.

I am guessing CHK's spin-off oilfield services company will be really, really cheap if the spin actually happens. What do you think?

[rjohnla]

Brewer, I heard these Fracking companies are many and small. You heard that?

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 Brewer, sorry for jumping in. But my guess is you'll have something to say about what I write: Fracking - maybe. Oil & Gas: No. Look at the Baltic Dry Index, indicator of trade and oil/gas use to move things BDIY Quote - Baltic Dry Index - Bloomberg Does not look so good. Why? Demand is falling.

1) The BDI is the Baltic DRY Index. It has nothing to do with oil. These are ships that move dry commodities, like coal, iron ore, grain, etc.

2) The BDI is spot rates and can be a misleading indicator. I have seen a 3 year charter of a capsize dry bulk ship for 30k/day in the last week as the spot rates were falling below 20k/day. The people inking 3 year charters aren't stupid.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 Brewer, I heard these Fracking companies are many and small. You heard that?

You mean like Chesapeake Energy, the second largest US producer of natural gas behind Exxon?

[rjohnla]

B-yes, but they need oil to run. If BDI is falling, they won't be using as many ships, hence less oil, less demand, prices down. Thoughts?

[rjohnla]

B-Ok, the big boys, I don't recall where I heard 'many & small' that's why I asked.

[Animorph]

Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 (VTTSX), or your choice of dates to get bonds where you want.

Or the equivalent in Total Stock Market (VTSMX), Total International Stock (VGTSX), Total Bond Market (VTBIX), and Total International Bond (VTIBX). Follow the TR 2060 proportions or roll your own. This would be my preferred approach.

I'd have a hard time recommending anything more complex to a beginner. A slice and dice portfolio has so many choices we'd never agree on it.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 B-yes, but they need oil to run. If BDI is falling, they won't be using as many ships, hence less oil, less demand, prices down. Thoughts?

The ships will still run, they will just get paid less. Rounding error to total oil demand anyway.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 I am guessing CHK's spin-off oilfield services company will be really, really cheap if the spin actually happens. What do you think?

Well, a lot of my contacts and some friends are at Chesapeake (Oklahoma City + WV) and word is the company has gone nuts with firing personnel (they needed that anyway). All of Aubry's hand picked Lieutenants are gone and there is a new "A" team n place. I don't know if that's good or bad.

With respect to the services spin off as a shareholder deal, they are going to be late to the party as there are lots of firms trenched in doing drilling, fracturing, tool rental, rig moving, etc. and how the hell did they come up with a name like Seventy Seven Energy, Inc for the new firm?

I can't speculate if the stock will be cheap since it's technically a start up (with a big debt load?) and very few are drilling for new gas which may be the main expertise of this new company. Plus, its biggest customer has been the parent. It's going to be too hot for me as CHK has been. Too many other opportunities in the oil patch these days than to jump into SSE when it becomes available.

[brewer12345]

I expect SSE to be very cheap, since spin-offs usually trade at a discount plus everything CHK has hair on it. I will take a loser look if and when the spin happens.

As for CHK itself, I think the replacement management team has a limited amount of time to light the fuse on the rocket. After that, Mr. Icahn will likely try to push for a sale of the company. Firing people works either way.

[rjohnla]

B - what are you writing about. It's me just don't understand it?

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WAVE3 B - what are you writing about. It's me just don't understand it?

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and their planned spin-off SSE, which is currently a wholly-owned oilfield services company.