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View Poll Results: What do you believe the chances are for another Depression
Unavoidable 8 6.06%
Likely 15 11.36%
Somewhat likely 23 17.42%
Somewhat unlikely 33 25.00%
Unlikely 51 38.64%
Impossible 2 1.52%
Voters: 132. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-09-2010, 09:40 AM   #41
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Like Nancy Pelosi says: "People losing jobs are creating jobs"..........
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Old 07-09-2010, 10:02 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
DEX!

I have pointed out several times, that the NBER often takes over a year to pinpoint the exact end of a recession. Don't interpret what they say to mean we are still in one! We are not. They aren't claiming we are in one either. They are just saying they haven't enough data to pin point the exact "trough" date and the beginning of the current expansion yet.

They likely will select early summer 2009 as the end of the Dec 2007 recession as most economists have already. That means it was a 1.5 year recession, and we have already had a year of expansion.

Audrey
I got that, however that press release was issued April 12, 2010 so they had the summer 2009 info. I don't know were we stand as to a trough but if we are in a recovery it is a weak one. It is good to have an organization like that to keep us all honest.
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Old 07-09-2010, 10:05 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Like Nancy Pelosi says: "People losing jobs are creating jobs"..........
Let's not go there.
Nancy Pelosi Quotes
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Old 07-09-2010, 10:06 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
SURE, we COULD have another Depression, but also:
1)The world could end in 2012 if you believe the Mayan Calendar
Um... pet peeve. NASA - 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?

I don't think we'll see a depression, though I know I'll see great economic change in my lifetime. Maybe this is the beginning of that. No country can have its citizens going on and on spending money they don't have. Our living habits may have to come back in line with reality; if we refuse to do so we'll keep pushing the credit and then I'll be wrong. New cell phone every 18 months? New TV every 24 months? New car every 3 years? New Computer every year? Depression.

I have a lot to learn though.
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Old 07-09-2010, 11:34 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by dex View Post
I got that, however that press release was issued April 12, 2010 so they had the summer 2009 info. I don't know were we stand as to a trough but if we are in a recovery it is a weak one. It is good to have an organization like that to keep us all honest.
A weak recovery is still a recovery, which means you are out of recession. What does "honest" have to do with it? - it's just super delayed information making sure every possible revision is in. I suspect it also takes them a while to pin point an exact month which they seem to like to do. Totally backward looking with no use in evaluating the present situation.

As you can see, it took them over 18 months to announce the last two troughs. So it could easily be the end of this year before they have the results for this one.

Quote:
The December 2007 peak was announced December 1, 2008.
The November 2001 trough was announced July 17, 2003.
The March 2001 peak was announced November 26, 2001.
The March 1991 trough was announced December 22, 1992.
The July 1990 peak was announced April 25, 1991.
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Old 07-10-2010, 10:11 AM   #46
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Trying to describe something so complex like our economic situation with one word is impossible. Humans love to do it. I guess it helps us deal with it or understand it. Perhaps it’s because our language has so few different words to describe it. Maybe we just have a need to relate what’s happening now to something we learned in the past.

What we’re experiencing today economically is very different than what we experienced during the depression. Aside from food lines and such, we were an incredible producer and saver nation that suffered a temporary jolt to our economy. Today we’re a bunch of borrowers and consumers. 70% of our economy is buying stuff.

My feeling is this won’t be temporary, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned. No matter how much stimulus you give, there is no sustainable wealth creation in borrowing and buying. I think we’ll have to come up with a new word. My vote is for permacession.
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