Chart of Withdrawal Rate - Success Rate - Yrs Retired

[Lsbcal]

Midpack, that is a nice chart. Is it done with Excel or something else?

That chart brings up another thought. I usually run my FIRECalc runs with just 20 years. But I put a floor on the allowed decline of about 50% of the starting portfolio so that is the "failure". The logic is that if I got down to that 50% level it would already be really scary to me and might require drastic action ... like moving into smaller digs. Also I'd be in my 80's after 20 years. That is a point we might easily see selling the big house. So at least in our case, 35 years is a possibility but the withdrawal rates and major actions might be out there in only 20 years. At 20 years markets and health issues might easily make all this planning quite different. I'm sure what I'm saying in this paragraph is well known to many reading here. Just thought I'd reiterate it.

[Options]

I hope I'm not one of those people who "(temporarily) lose perspective with retirement calculators/planning"...although it wouldn't be the first time I've lost perspective...

What I've done to overcome FIRECALC's not including fees or taxes is use the off chart spending in the Other Income/Spending tab. For taxes, however, I could think of no way to guesstimate yearly taxes other than take the avg of all taxes FRIP estimates for the duration of my retirement. Don't like taking the avg of anything, but could think of no better way. Any suggestions?

BTW, rerunning these new numbers in FRIP, I-ORP, and FIRECALC results in FIRECALC and I-ORP roughly equal in results with FRIP much more conservative.

[Ken11]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack Some people can (temporarily) lose perspective with retirement calculators/planning, but if you look at the underlying result from FIRECALC, is there any doubt? Calculators planners can suggest where to aim the shotgun, but you still get a shotgun blast scatter no matter where you aim...

Yeah.. That was a bit of a rhetorical question.

Today I had my first meet with my Vanguard CFP.
I explained that neither the best or worse case would ever come to pass.
If the best case trajectory is in progress I'm probably buying some Ferrari's.
In a worse case scenario I'll be enjoying mac and cheese during my annual home vacations. LOL

[NanoSour]

Although I use all the online calculators that most here use, I put most of my faith in ESPlanner which does include the tax part of the equation; federal, state, medicare, etc. Cost me $199 for the plus version, but was money well spent as I don't believe I would have left cush Megacorp gig without its smooth consumption scenarios.

Over the past couple days I've taken the Total Spending figure from ESP and used Arizona Salary Paycheck Calculator | Payroll Calculator | Paycheck City to calculate an equivalent salary. It was enlightening to see how much tax I'm not paying.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Options BTW, rerunning these new numbers in FRIP, I-ORP, and FIRECALC results in FIRECALC and I-ORP roughly equal in results with FRIP much more conservative.

Two observations, only you can decide if they are related:
1) Compared to I-ORP and FIRECalc, the tool supplied by Fidelity Investments indicates you'd need to save/invest more money.
2) Fidelty Investments makes more money when people invest more money.

Taxes: Don't overthink it. No calculator in the world is going to be able to tell you what tax policies will be in 30 years. I'd use the current rate structure and policies, maybe add a few percent at the higher levels. If your portfolio takes off and puts your annual income into the very high tax brackets when you are 80, is it really a concern? You'll be happy to pay it, right?

Midpack,
Thanks for the groovy chart. I used to be able to make really great charts and graphs with Excel, then they "improved" it and got rid of the chart wizard. Too bad, as it worked really well. Down the Microsoft Memory Hole, along with File Manager.

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem ...(snip)... Midpack, Thanks for the groovy chart. I used to be able to make really great charts and graphs with Excel, then they "improved" it and got rid of the chart wizard. Too bad, as it worked really well. Down the Microsoft Memory Hole, along with File Manager.

I'm still using Excel Chart Wizard. Guess it's 2007. Now I have no incentive to go into the newer versions unless there is something in the new versions that does it better.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal I'm still using Excel Chart Wizard. Guess it's 2007. Now I have no incentive to go into the newer versions unless there is something in the new versions that does it better.

No, stick with what you've got. Excel got worse after that 2007 release (IMO).

This MS Excel Blog talks about the elimination of Chart Wizard and how much "better" things are in Excel 2010 with everything located on the "ribbon". Looking at the chart below--sure doesn't look better to me. Idiots.

[IMG]http://blogs.office.com/***-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer-Blogs-Components-WeblogFiles/00-00-00-00-44/0181.Chart-Wizard-Table.jpg[/IMG]

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem No, stick with what you've got. Excel got worse after that 2007 release (IMO). ...

FYI, I just got curious, and LibreOffice can do a 3D chart like the one in the OP, very easily through its 'Chart Wizard'.

Fortunately, they don't seem to blindly follow what seems to be the MS motto of 'let's make the new release different, not better'.

-ERD50

[Dreamer]

Thanks for the easy to read chart!