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Old 07-22-2015, 03:24 PM   #81
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No, I still cannot imagine it. Paris, London, Amsterdam, Brussels are more densely populated than my area, but none of them have rows of high-rise buildings like what they show in modern Chinese cities.

I look a bit deeper, and here's what I found. Paris has a density of 55,000/square mile (2.24 million over 40.7 square miles). Holy Moly! It did not feel that bad when I was there. The new Chinese supercity density will be 130 million over 82,000 square miles, so that is only 1600/square mile.

So, perhaps the Chinese will not put everyone in high-rises, or if they do, there's still plenty of space left for parks and open space. Maybe it will not be so bad.

PS. Manhattan has a population density of 72,000/sq.mi.
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Old 07-22-2015, 08:19 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by clifp View Post
More proof that the Chinese market is very different.

From the WSJ

Dont we have an automatic shutdown too when the market falls a certain amount? 500 points i think.


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Old 07-22-2015, 08:32 PM   #83
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China

Everyone in bei -tian-he will indeed be in high rises. Well...all except the extreme wealthy who could purchase a villa styled home. The average Beijing real estate cost is approximately 35000 -40000 rmb per sqm. That's average. High end is more like 60000 rmb per sqm. Converted to 'merikun that's about 600 dollars average per square foot!!!

And higher end is 1000 per square foot. That makes San Francisco real estate look cheap by comparison.

Oh. And that's a 70 year lease, not forever ownership. And no land ...


Of course, when the mega buildout happens, real estate could decline a little bit in price (not much) maybe as more units come online.

Having lived in "smaller" cities like Tokyo and Beijing, Mega-city living is convenient but has plenty of drawbacks too.

Yes. We have brief circuit breakers but they are not a daily down - limit as exits in china.
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Old 07-22-2015, 08:47 PM   #84
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Dont we have an automatic shutdown too when the market falls a certain amount? 500 points i think.
We do have the so called " Circuit Breakers ", however they were instituted, at least the supposed intent was to facilitate order flow, not damper panic. In the late 1980's crash, with the trading system at the time, orders pilled up and took over a day just to unwind the mess. The exchanges today could handle many times that volume without breaking a sweat.
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Old 07-23-2015, 09:51 AM   #85
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We do have the so called " Circuit Breakers ", however they were instituted, at least the supposed intent was to facilitate order flow, not damper panic. In the late 1980's crash, with the trading system at the time, orders pilled up and took over a day just to unwind the mess. The exchanges today could handle many times that volume without breaking a sweat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb
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Old 07-23-2015, 03:05 PM   #86
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In the late 1980's crash, with the trading system at the time, orders pilled up and took over a day just to unwind the mess. The exchanges today could handle many times that volume without breaking a sweat.
It happened in 1962 too. from a book about this (and other anecdotes):

Quote:
Because of the greater trading volume, tickers ticked and lights burned even farther into the night than they had on Monday; the Exchange tape did not print the day’s last transaction until 8:15—four and three-quarters hours after it had actually occurred.
and:

Quote:
At the same time, Exchange officials were necessarily pondering the problem of Monday’s and Tuesday’s scandalously laggard ticker, which everyone agreed had been at the very heart of—if not, indeed, the cause of—the most nearly catastrophic technical snarl in history.
Guess we have high frequency trading to thank for no more of that?
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Old 07-27-2015, 12:32 PM   #87
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I was thinking just a day ago, "Well, , the new trading restrictions in China are working " . Now it looks like when the dam has holes and cracks, nobody can plug the leaks with money forever.
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:40 AM   #88
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It seems to me, that the financial community is confused about the China economic situation. TV news networks... Fox, CNBC, Bloomberg, and CNN all present views that are conflicted and yes, confused.
The internet websites are not much better and the blogs range from blowing it off as a non-event, to those that predict the end of the world.

As many predictions as there are pundits. Hers is one that purports to detail the relationship of the banks, the government and the overall effect of the current situation.

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Old 07-28-2015, 12:49 PM   #89
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It seems to me, that the financial community is confused about the China economic situation.
If you really want to know about the Chinese economy you should spend some time with this blog. Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS | Global imbalances and the Chinese economy. Go back a year or two and look at his blog entries, you will probably learn a great deal more than all of the talking heads combined.

He has interesting commentary on Europe as well.
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Old 07-28-2015, 04:08 PM   #90
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Looking at the China Shanghai Index, it kind of reminds me of NASDAQ in 1999 and 2000. There is a HUGE run up between Feb and May of this year. And after this massive super fast run up there is a sell off - no surprise there. The market is still almost twice levels of a year ago. In fact, it's just coming back to where it took off on a parabolic move 6 months ago. I don't understand all the gnashing of teeth.
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Old 08-10-2015, 11:14 AM   #91
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If you really want to know about the Chinese economy you should spend some time with this blog. Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS | Global imbalances and the Chinese economy. Go back a year or two and look at his blog entries, you will probably learn a great deal more than all of the talking heads combined.

He has interesting commentary on Europe as well.
Yeah... I spent some time at the site... Interesting for sure...

Now I'm watching the recent "sale" of US Bonds... by China... a very significant amount, although they still own more than a trillion $$$.
I expect this is not easy to analyze. Who "buys"?

As the market goes up... (at this point) DJIA by 200+.... how does China figure in?... If at all?

Or maybe a non-event?
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:55 PM   #92
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Yeah... I spent some time at the site... Interesting for sure...

Now I'm watching the recent "sale" of US Bonds... by China... a very significant amount, although they still own more than a trillion $$$.
I expect this is not easy to analyze. Who "buys"?

As the market goes up... (at this point) DJIA by 200+.... how does China figure in?... If at all?

Or maybe a non-event?
When the Chinese market ran up over 100% in a year did THAT effect our markets? Not really. So if the Chinese market goes down, why would THAT have any more correlation than when it ran up?
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Old 08-10-2015, 02:12 PM   #93
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When the Chinese market ran up over 100% in a year did THAT effect our markets? Not really.
How could we know, unless we knew what the US market would have done with a flat China market--and we don't.

Overall, though, while the US and Chinese >economies< are interdependent, there's not much reason to believe our stock markets are.
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Old 08-11-2015, 10:58 PM   #94
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OK 2% currency devaluation before Tues market open in US. And now another one tonight?

I thought they said it was a one-shot deal. Maybe they meant one shot over many days?
China Roils Markets Second Day as Yuan Cut by 1.6%; Bonds Rally - Bloomberg Business
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Old 08-11-2015, 11:24 PM   #95
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OK 2% currency devaluation before Tues market open in US. And now another one tonight?

I thought they said it was a one-shot deal. Maybe they meant one shot over many days?
China Roils Markets Second Day as Yuan Cut by 1.6%; Bonds Rally - Bloomberg Business
You mean a "shot per day"! Thanks for the link.
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:58 AM   #96
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OK 2% currency devaluation before Tues market open in US. And now another one tonight?

I thought they said it was a one-shot deal. Maybe they meant one shot over many days?
China Roils Markets Second Day as Yuan Cut by 1.6%; Bonds Rally - Bloomberg Business
The rise in the US$ has hurt the Chinese economy. The pressure is now on the Fed to hold rates steady.

A modern version of The Guns of August, perhaps?
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Old 08-12-2015, 05:20 PM   #97
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The rise in the US$ has hurt the Chinese economy. The pressure is now on the Fed to hold rates steady.

A modern version of The Guns of August, perhaps?
Am guessing that the expected rise in September won't take place. Janet Yellen can do nothing either way to positively effect anything.

I have been following Charles Hugh Smith on the subject of China, and while some see him as a hack, there are many facts that are not explainable in terms of Western markets. Pulling from an earlier post:
Quote:
Many of the international news sources are going into great detail as to differences... and not all agree. Some of the major variances come in the way we interpret the same words and concepts. To one degree or another, here are some of the areas that can be confused.
Liquidity
Free Market
Government backing
Market manipulation
Margin
Financial entities versus individual investors
Leverage
Free Trade
Government regulated trade and timing standards
Trade suspension
It's a tedious task, but every one of these factors, looked at individually, speaks to the kind of action that is going on every day in the Chinese market. Each piece, comes as a big surprise... partially accounting for the current fluctuations in our own market. Like, who would expect two devaluations in two days? Whenever did US markets stop all trading in sectors for an extended period? Who can predict if China will dump a half trillion dollars in American bonds? How much can we buy back? What happened to the Chinese investors who bought on margin? How long will it take for the devalued currency to affect the actual production and import of Chinese good to the US? Immediately? Six months?, a Year? What happens to the US corporations that are heavily invested in China?

Does anyone here understand the relationship of the US and China management in the market economy? Inter or intra governmental involvement?

While we're learning about China as a country, and looking to the future, it's well to remember that China is second only to the US in GDP. with Japan , (the next in line) with a GDP of less than half that of China. Hardly to be ignored in dealing with our own US economy.

Again, so many questions... No wonder that as we look at the financial pundits, none has been right so far. The chartists have to be going crazy, trying to equate the jagged market with historical results. Never before so many world wide variables.

One piece at a time...
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A different perspective
Old 09-08-2015, 09:06 AM   #98
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A different perspective

A very different look at the world... placing China and other countries in a simple comparison map by the size of the stock markets.

The Real Threat from China's Stock Market Crash

The article takes a different look at countries like China, Greece and Russia, with respect to relative market size.
Attached Images
File Type: png 0915_IfCountriesWere_L.png (23.5 KB, 26 views)
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Old 09-08-2015, 08:05 PM   #99
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Perception

Bad News is Good News?

Below is todays Morningstar Mid Day Market

Midday Market Update
As of 09/08/2015 11:30 AM | US

U.S. Market
Stocks followed global markets higher this morning on Chinese stimulus hopes.

Chinese trade data showed a further slowing in the economy today. Exports were off a larger-than-excepted 5.5% while imports fell 13.8%. The weak data led to hopes that China would embark on a new round of stimulus measures.
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Old 01-06-2016, 10:27 PM   #100
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The Chinese stock market is down approx 7% today, and was shut down for the second time in a week.

I do wish Vanguard would reconsider their ongoing effort to add Chinese A-Shares equities to their emerging markets fund. These stocks, and the exchange they trade on, are subject to too much control and manipulation by central planners. It's just not a mature, open market, and it's not suitable for indexing because the prices don't reflect freely-acting buyers and sellers.

And then we have yesterday's unusual "seismic" activity. if Beijing doesn't do something soon to help their friends in Pyongyang to see things their way, the volatility will soon go way beyond the stock market.
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