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Old 08-07-2019, 01:45 PM   #121
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Thanks for the link. I think what they mean is that at one time in the period between post war and early 80’s, Hawaii was the largest producer of canned pineapple. The world leader in canning technology, also agricultural productivity. When Hawaii lost it’s competitive edge in canning, that business went elsewhere. Pineapple production around the world has always been strong.
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My point is that we import a lot of food already. A tariff will not kill agriculture any more than the other myriad of issues that Ag faces. And just like as in manufacturing, it is cheaper to import than grow. More and more Ag will also be outsourced in due time, if not for the farm subsidies and exemption from many labor laws.

Sugar would be nearly 100% imported if not for tariffs. We will likely import more and more food and Ag products. I would guess that in time, and maybe already, it is cheaper to produce corn and soybeans from somewhere else. Especially if they somewhere else have a government subsidy.

Everyone makes a big deal about the current tariffs, but if we had a tariff reciprocity, the tariffs would be a lot higher.
Tariffs don’t kill agriculture, but they are very disruptive and are a big deal. A tariff on manufactured goods, like cell phones, can lead the producer, like Apple, to announce it will absorb them while it works out a new supply chain. Commodity products, like most agriculture, can be substituted immediately, so when a tariff is announced on one product, the buyer sources elsewhere. It creates short term stress on prices and supply around the world, but the producer that was hit with the tariff is clearly hurt the most. Potentially out of business.
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Old 08-07-2019, 02:53 PM   #122
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Pineapples, bananas, tomatoes, etc. Hawaii used to be the #1 producer of pineapples. You can barely find one grown there now.
Fun fact - pineapples are not native to Hawaii.

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Shrimp was a product of the Gulf. Now shrimp are raised overseas.
You think you cannot buy gulf shrimp? You are mistaken.
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Old 08-07-2019, 02:58 PM   #123
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Fun fact - pineapples are not native to Hawaii.


You think you cannot buy gulf shrimp? You are mistaken.
You can buy gulf shrimp, they are the best. Go to Red Lobster, see if they sell Gulf Shrimp...
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Old 08-07-2019, 03:00 PM   #124
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Yup, you can get them and they are the best.

You can get anything on the internet!
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Old 08-07-2019, 03:10 PM   #125
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Looks like my news feed on the market. OMG its crashing!!! Whew its recovered early losses. OMG its crashing!!!~!~ Ending the day having recovered all losses for the day. Rinse repeat next day.

Yup. My run-of-the-mill 55/45 portfolio is down a whopping 2.25% from its all time high of two weeks ago. Not seeing the hair on fire excitement at USG's place.

Some traders and options folks are making/losing big money though.
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Old 08-07-2019, 03:10 PM   #126
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I've noticed wild-caught Patagonian shrimp showing up in the grocery stores. They're big and tasty but seem kind of beaten up.
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Old 08-08-2019, 10:20 AM   #127
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Gulf shrimp? WHICH gulf?
Here in south Louisiana they better be from the Gulf of Mexico, northern central gulf that is. Otherwise they're NOT what we consider fresh. And there is a huge difference between fresh and "previously frozen".
BTW here in Alaska for the summer and bought 18 frozen "fresh" shrimp for $28.
Wow! we pay about $4/pound for same size back home.
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Old 08-08-2019, 10:38 AM   #128
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Many North American companies that sell products in China have to agree to build their products there. Buick and Volkswagen come to mind. So they don't actually import.
Didn't know VW moved to NA. Thanks.
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Old 08-08-2019, 10:45 AM   #129
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The FI part of FIRE means I don't have to eat at Red Lobster.

Wild Gulf shrimp have a flavor and texture farm raised can't touch.

Confounding farming soy and corn with pineapples is very misleading. Soy and corn are the basis for most of the modern worlds diet. A market thousands of times larger than a specialty fruit market.
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You can buy gulf shrimp, they are the best. Go to Red Lobster, see if they sell Gulf Shrimp...
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Old 08-08-2019, 10:50 AM   #130
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Didn't know VW moved to NA. Thanks.
Oops, I was gonna say Joy Global, but they have turned into Komatsu (but still headquartered in Wisconsin). Then I second-guessed myself and messed up. Of course Volkswagen is based in Wolfsburg, Germany.
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Old 08-08-2019, 11:17 AM   #131
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Thoughts on the farm economy? Not much said recently about the Chinese switch from the US to Brazil on soy beans among other commodities. The seasonal market is a moving proposition, and not just resolved by temporary storage.

So far, the national news is discussing the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P. Whatever happens in the coming days, the longer term effects will come from individual stocks, and the place in the world economy. Were I in the market, my time would be spent in understanding the most volatile stocks. Going with the flow, would be last on my list.

When the dust initially settles, a look a the individual rates that exceed the standard deviation as a guideline.
Hand grenade and horse shoe wise - the average age of the American farmer is/is going north of 60, over 50% of American farms may change hands in the next 15 years, and over 80% filing Schedule F (farming) filed are less than $15,000.

So add in China, upper Missouri flooding this year and glycophosphate (no till) lawsuits - we are in for 'interesting times' as the old Chinese proverb says.

heh heh heh - Still full auto - Target Retirement has me(in 'old' age) down to 50/50 with re balancing. 25 years of ER and staying the course. Was pretty much 60/40 from 1966 to 2006.

P.S. Mailbox Shopper' at the farm yesterday - $ 15 for the Tractor Pull and I don't remember $ for the Demolition Derby at 103rd Northwest Missouri State Fair in Bethany.
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Old 08-08-2019, 11:49 AM   #132
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Did the markets drop earlier this week?
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Old 08-08-2019, 11:57 AM   #133
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Didn't know VW moved to NA. Thanks.
VW built a big assembly plant in Chattanooga, TN several years ago. They also have a couple of plants in Mexico.
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Old 08-08-2019, 12:10 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by GravitySucks View Post
The FI part of FIRE means I don't have to eat at Red Lobster.

Wild Gulf shrimp have a flavor and texture farm raised can't touch.

Confounding farming soy and corn with pineapples is very misleading. Soy and corn are the basis for most of the modern worlds diet. A market thousands of times larger than a specialty fruit market.
Back in the 90ís we had a batch of visitors at megacorp from China. They had our equipment and were here to checkout an important repair job we were performing for them. First night they went to Red Lobster for dinner since it was right by their hotel. They loved it so much they wanted to eat there every night! We offered much better options but they loved the Red Lobster!

Fast forward 20 years and the business from China went to almost zero. They buy o-rings and gaskets. They figured out how to do all the parts themselves. Thatís what the companies moving there may find. They copy the tech and then you get nothing.
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Old 08-08-2019, 01:37 PM   #135
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Back in the 90ís we had a batch of visitors at megacorp from China. They had our equipment and were here to checkout an important repair job we were performing for them. First night they went to Red Lobster for dinner since it was right by their hotel. They loved it so much they wanted to eat there every night! We offered much better options but they loved the Red Lobster!

Fast forward 20 years and the business from China went to almost zero. They buy o-rings and gaskets. They figured out how to do all the parts themselves. Thatís what the companies moving there may find. They copy the tech and then you get nothing.
Yes, this happens in spades. To do business in China typically requires technology sharing agreements which are then used to copycat the technology. Another game played is to use the US court system to dislodge secrets. Here's how it works: The foreign company sues the US company in US court. Part of that process requires disclosure of the technology in question. The foreign company loses the suit, but doesn't really care as they now have information on the technology in question, produce it at home. The US company is out of luck because they can't sue the foreigner in their home country.
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Old 08-08-2019, 01:44 PM   #136
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Did the markets drop earlier this week?
It surely did, and wiped out all of the covered call options I sold earlier. Yes, all of them. I have been buying them back for pennies or a dime on the dollar, even though I did not have to.

They are going to expire worthless next Friday, but I buy them back to free up my stocks, so that I can sell new options on them if the opportunity arises.
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Old 08-13-2019, 05:14 PM   #137
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The US farms sell soybeans to Brazil. The Brazilian's sell soybeans to China. Problem solved.
Not sure if you were just being flippant? Won't work that way. The Brazilians are simply burning more Amazon forestland and planting soybeans. No need to buy anything from the US with scarce Brazilian cash.
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Old 08-13-2019, 07:44 PM   #138
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Eek!!! Well gee, here we go again, folks.

Oh well, it's been nice.

That said, just six months ago the Dow was hundreds of points lower than it is now.

I would like to tweak MichaelB's cowbell response just slightly, because I think the perfect response for today is "More BLUEBELL!" Plus I plan to watch, wait, and do nothing. I'll diet later (yet again). Here is what you gotta get:
Love it! - More BlueBell!!!

Unfortunately, ice cream is off limits for me right now. If I found some with no sugar added I could eat it......

P.S. Tired of the news driven volatile markets and have pretty much ignored them.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:14 AM   #139
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more cowbell?
i got a fever!
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Old 08-18-2019, 05:21 PM   #140
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Not sure if you were just being flippant? Won't work that way. The Brazilians are simply burning more Amazon forestland and planting soybeans. No need to buy anything from the US with scarce Brazilian cash.
Not at all. Whether it is better to burn forestland and plant and grow soybeans vs. import from USA and relabel the shipments to send to China is simply a question of prices of the import vs. grow your own.

It doesn't even require (much) scarce (as you put it) Brazilian cash, the only financing required is enough to do the float (i.e. when the US producer must be paid vs when the Chinese buyer pays - both in US $).

You say it won't work that way, my degree in Economics says it will. It might take a while, but arbitrage opportunities are usually fulfilled.
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