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Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'
Old 08-27-2012, 11:59 AM   #1
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Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'

Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral' - Money Morning


An interesting article.... but to me it is striking about the last quote:

"People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald.


SOOO, if civilization will not survive, who needs to save for retirement Investments would be wiped out, money would be worthless, many people would die of starvation.... what is there to plan for with investments?
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Old 08-27-2012, 12:02 PM   #2
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I suspect their recommendations for "making preparations" includes taking all that money and sinking it into guns, gold, ammo and tinfoil.
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Old 08-27-2012, 12:08 PM   #3
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Every year there is someone predicting chaos and the end of the world. Eventually our sun will burn out and the world will end so they will be proven right, even though it likely won't happen for another billion years or so. On the bright side, think about the size of your nest egg if you calculate the compounded interest over a billion years!
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Old 08-27-2012, 01:11 PM   #4
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He's right, of course. Best take immediate action and get in on the right investment choices while you still can.

In the opinion of all the professional financial advisers I've spoken to, as well as my barber, that means this incredible, limited-time opportunity I just heard about.

It's a deferred, variable, equity-indexed, highly diversified, contrarian, commodity balanced, hedge fund alternative annuity that is structured in such a way that even TEOTWAWKI would have no effect on its ability to earn completely safe, regular dividends for you, providing an effective yield of over 43% per month.

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Old 08-27-2012, 01:16 PM   #5
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Let's really get into some doom and gloom stuff.

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Old 08-27-2012, 01:24 PM   #6
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If civilization is in a death spiral I wonder what personal adjustments would even be effective. However, this is an interesting career path:

Quote:
Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company....
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Old 08-27-2012, 06:13 PM   #7
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It's gonna be like this . . .

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Old 08-27-2012, 09:18 PM   #8
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"What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.
What would be the recommended Safe Withdrawal Rate under these circumstances? Should I consider changing from 3.4% to a SWR of 3.2% as a prudent first step?
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:24 PM   #9
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No. It's 100% WR.

You've got to take all that money out when it's still worth something. The problem is what to do with it other than to buy gold and lead. Everything else is perishable goods, which will not keep.
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:36 PM   #10
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No. It's 100% WR.

You've got to take all that money out when it's still worth something. The problem is what to do with it other than to buy gold and lead. Everything else is perishable goods, which will not keep.
So, it's really an asset allocation problem? I'm thinking about going with 45% lead, 55% gold. What is the best way to set this up in FireCalc, with the goal of determining how fast I can go through my lead and gold with a 95% survival rate or better?
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:58 PM   #11
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The AA is a big problem to solve, after you have agreed with the prediction in the article.

One is used as a means to induce, the other to coerce, though they are both heavy metal. It seems that one would need both for survival, but what is the correct ratio? How to best deploy one or the other under a circumstance?

You start with asking, what would be the relative benefits of the two AA components, and the future exchange rate between Au and Pb (voluntary and involuntary)? The transportation costs? The volume and weight that each component would be?

You want to run this in FIRECalc? Hah! It's not sufficiently advanced. In fact, I don't think anyone has worked this out.

Whoever solves this problem will get the Nobel in Economics, I am sure. The prize will of course be paid in the optimal Au/Pb ratio that the laureate has computed.
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Old 08-27-2012, 10:07 PM   #12
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Guns and gold may be helpful in short term survival, but your best defense is really to maximize your human capital - think of it as an enabler to move somewhere else and start over.

STEM and medicine are examples of career fields which are sufficiently in demand worldwide that they are likely to enable lawful international migration.
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Old 08-27-2012, 10:18 PM   #13
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OMG

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This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well.
So the problem is that things go up before they go down. And many things are currently going up. I don't think I understand how energy, food and water are exponentially rising, but I have a hard time taking this seriously. If things were going down, would the pattern be: Things are dropping just before they drop a lot more. Seems like this prediction system cannot lose.
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Old 08-27-2012, 10:34 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post

SOOO, if civilization will not survive, who needs to save for retirement Investments would be wiped out, money would be worthless, many people would die of starvation.... what is there to plan for with investments?
I'm planning for a reversion to the time of the Pharaohs when material goods were considered a necessity for the afterlife: Ancient Egyptian burial customs - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Must remember to pay my estate taxes on the way out.
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Old 08-27-2012, 11:31 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by FinanceGeek View Post
Guns and gold may be helpful in short term survival, but your best defense is really to maximize your human capital - think of it as an enabler to move somewhere else and start over.

STEM and medicine are examples of career fields which are sufficiently in demand worldwide that they are likely to enable lawful international migration.


I know of someone else who had the doom and gloom thinking...... and as I have said, if we go down, everybody else is going down... that is, the non third world nations....

What some do not believe is that even if we lost 80% we would still be better off than most people in Africa or other places.... and a lot better than North Korea....
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Old 08-28-2012, 12:21 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by FinanceGeek View Post
Guns and gold may be helpful in short term survival, but your best defense is really to maximize your human capital - think of it as an enabler to move somewhere else and start over.

STEM and medicine are examples of career fields which are sufficiently in demand worldwide that they are likely to enable lawful international migration.
Kind of conflicts with the early retirement theme, though. If your highest ambition is to quit work, not likely that you are looking for new worlds in which to take up work.

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Old 08-28-2012, 12:34 AM   #17
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No. It's 100% WR.

You've got to take all that money out when it's still worth something. The problem is what to do with it other than to buy gold and lead. Everything else is perishable goods, which will not keep.
MRE's last for a very long time. I also hear a lot of ads for emergency/survival food that is suppose to a last for a decade.

To me one of the most important things to stock up on would be gasoline, but I have no idea how long gasoline can be stored in a tank, and obviously the fire hazard is substantial.

Alternatively a solar array and an electric car would be a useful investment. Of course all you nuke engineers could just find yourself a reactor and be set for generations.

Guard dogs, livestock, fertilizer, and farm equipment would also be pretty useful.

I think I have read and watched too many after the Zombie Apocalypse shows.
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Old 08-28-2012, 12:47 AM   #18
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MREs lasting for a mere decade? I do not expect to live to 100 like many posters here, but I would like to have enough for longer than a decade, I think.

If it means the end of life as we know it, it is best to have some packages of seeds to grow my own food. Back to living off the earth instead of dividends and interests. The problem is neither of my home lots is suitable to grow food. I am also too old and tired to work that hard.

I am doomed. When my Pb runs out, I am done.
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Old 08-28-2012, 02:08 AM   #19
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He's right, of course. Best take immediate action and get in on the right investment choices while you still can.

In the opinion of all the professional financial advisers I've spoken to, as well as my barber, that means this incredible, limited-time opportunity I just heard about.

It's a deferred, variable, equity-indexed, highly diversified, contrarian, commodity balanced, hedge fund alternative annuity that is structured in such a way that even TEOTWAWKI would have no effect on its ability to earn completely safe, regular dividends for you, providing an effective yield of over 43% per month.

Don't delay! Act now! Operators are standing by!
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Old 08-28-2012, 05:18 AM   #20
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We are not Greece, we can print money, look to Zimbabwe for better example :-)
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