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Old 10-30-2008, 05:02 PM   #1
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Well, I truly hope this crap doesn't fall apart again. I'm back a little over $100,000 from the trough. I would hate to tell you how much more I need to be where I was, so I won't.

But I did wake up and look around, invested what little cash I had, avoided the siren of margin, traded some OK stocks for better ones and grabbed a tax loss, etc. etc.

Overall, I think I would be more upset at not having bought what I consider to be huge bargains than I was about getting the crap kicked out of me.

But all bets are off if it happens all over again.

In some individual issues, we saw absolute panic a few Fridays ago.

Anybody else have reports to share?

Ha
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Old 10-30-2008, 05:59 PM   #2
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I'm back a little over $100,000 from the trough. I would hate to tell you how much more I need to be where I was..
I am glad for you. You must be 100% invested.

Where was where? Can't be last October high. We've got a long way to go. You must be talking about where you were recently, like in Aug or Sep.

Now I wish I bought more the last few days. Yeah, so many good stocks on sale. But I waited for some more drops...

Don't want to jinx it for you, but I want some nice entry points, which I might have missed. We'll see what tomorrow brings...
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Old 10-30-2008, 05:59 PM   #3
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I did a little buying this week to move my asset allocation back where it belongs in core US Stock funds and International funds. I think we'll be unsettled through November, so I'll slowly rebalance to my planned asset allocation by year-end.

Right now, the extra in bonds is stablilizing but I want to adjust the stocks to take advantage of growth, when it happens.

-- Rita
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Old 10-30-2008, 06:22 PM   #4
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I am glad for you. You must be 100% invested.
Yes, except for a cash cushion that I won't invade.

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Where was where? Can't be last October high. We've got a long way to go. You must be talking about where you were recently, like in Aug or Sep.
No, it is from the October 07 high. Oddly, my own high was in July 08.

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Now I wish I bought more the last few days. Yeah, so many good stocks on sale. But I waited for some more drops...
And they may come...

Ha
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Old 10-30-2008, 06:25 PM   #5
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Right now, the extra in bonds is stablilizing but I want to adjust the stocks to take advantage of growth, when it happens.-- Rita
Right or wrong, my idea is that the huge September drop had nothing to do with overextended values in most cases, but rather with forced liquidation and panic. So these issues could come back 50% without any growth entering the picture. We just need to avoid problems with debt covenants and gotchas of that sort.

Ha
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Old 10-30-2008, 06:53 PM   #6
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Ha, I agree re the forced liquidation and panic. I'm glad you've recovered a chunk and hope you see more.
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Old 10-30-2008, 07:35 PM   #7
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My story is similar to ha's and some of yours.

I have also clawed back $100k or so. I am just as disturbed by how far there is still to go to break even.

I dumped a considerable amount of cash into the markets during its week or two at their recent lows. That has already started to pay off, marginally, but of course it remains to be seen if the clawing-back continues or if the collapse resumes.

I have yet to do major tax-loss harvesting. I may have to wait out another few weeks to do so, due to the recent buying. Otherwise, I'd have to sell out entire funds.

I still have ~10+ years in cash and cash-like funds, which I'm refusing to use to raise my stock allocation, or even for rebalancing.

I am guarded but hopeful that the worst has passed. Yet, I'm also sure that the road ahead will be quite rough.

Cheers.
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Old 10-30-2008, 08:32 PM   #8
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I was at the point of seriously considering part time work now I'm back to my normal life . I lost a lot but I had a lot of padding in my budget so life goes on.
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:14 PM   #9
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...I'm back a little over $100,000 from the trough. I would hate to tell you how much more I need to be where I was, so I won't...
Based on my $75K upswing from my lows, if I had to guess, you still need 4 to 5 more increases like the one you got just to get to break-even.
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:21 PM   #10
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Since Monday we have recovered about 19% of what we had lost between 10/9/07 (our personal high) and 10/27/2008 (our personal low). All the stuff I bought between 10/10 and 10/24 is doing really good (no surprise there). I just hope this rally holds... Best performer: my wife's company stock which had been severely depressed while the market was going up in 2006 and 2007 is now the life of the party, up 75% since 10/10/08. We got a lot of options riding on this puppy so go baby go! Now, if that stock were to go back to where it was only 2 years ago, we could be FIREd by the time we're 40... just dreaming:
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:24 PM   #11
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At my low point I was down 24% for the year. Now down 19%. Long way to go and I'm not getting too excited. Some idiot will appear on CNBC and start talking about the government going bankrupt or something.
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Old 10-31-2008, 12:33 AM   #12
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No, it is from the October 07 high. Oddly, my own high was in July 08.

Ha
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Laid back [with my mind on my money and my money on my mind]
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Old 10-31-2008, 04:26 AM   #13
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Some idiot will appear on CNBC and start talking about the government going bankrupt or something.
or, speaking of idiots...

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US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
October 26, 2008, 11:29 AM (GMT+02:00)

US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
There's always something lurking that can affect the market but I do wonder what affect a strike on Iran might have of the markets:confused:
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Old 10-31-2008, 07:51 AM   #14
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If we bounced quickly back to my Oct 07 high I would buy an SPIA with 1/3 I was tempted to switch some of our bond holdings to equities last week but instead just sat on my newly market adjusted AA which is more like what I have been thinking I should aim for.
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Old 10-31-2008, 08:32 AM   #15
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or, speaking of idiots...



There's always something lurking that can affect the market but I do wonder what affect a strike on Iran might have of the markets:confused:
Maybe this will be the "test" Joe Biden spoke of for barack if he's President.........
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Old 10-31-2008, 01:19 PM   #16
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I cheated and bought a few ETF's early that ended up with even lower prices when my buy target (S&P500 + MSCI EAFE level) was actually hit. So I sold them all for a 5% gain, missing some of this run-up but paying the HELOC interest for the next year. Now I'm waiting for the prices to go back down. I have one ETF that I hit correctly and retained, so not a total screw-up.

This is HELOC money, so while I'd like to get it in at the bottom I wouldn't feel too bad just giving it all back to the bank. I've put plenty of cash back in already this year.
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Old 10-31-2008, 02:10 PM   #17
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We need to remember that over time, results tend to return to the mean. Over the five years prior to 2008, we had substantial increases in equities above the historical averages, and so, we will have some years that are below the average.
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Old 10-31-2008, 02:23 PM   #18
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We need to remember that over time, results tend to return to the mean. Over the five years prior to 2008, we had substantial increases in equities above the historical averages, and so, we will have some years that are below the average.
I beleive that values are what counts. There is no reason that we must have a prolonged period of bad results from here. The bear has already torn up the camp.

Ha
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Old 10-31-2008, 02:39 PM   #19
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Moved some bonds over to SPY on Oct 10, with SPY @ ~$90, it's at $97 now, so feeling a bit better. Also, with all this volatility back, I'm selling calls against my SPY, and also short term trading some options. I've made some nice little trades in the course of a day or two, sometimes the same day.

Too early to tell if the winners > losers though. One clunker in there.

-ERD50
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Old 10-31-2008, 07:11 PM   #20
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I beleive that values are what counts. There is no reason that we must have a prolonged period of bad results from here. The bear has already torn up the camp.

Ha
I think the market had been speculated up, and the prices we see now reflect the correct values, for the most part. Obviously, it's different for each company. I don't think we need to have a prolonged period of bad results (minus more panic), but I think prices will start a long slow climb again, with normal up and downs. I don't think things will necessarily jump right back up to previous prices.
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