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Old 04-29-2013, 06:05 PM   #21
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...I am convinced that there's going to be a strong pullback in the equities market - just a "heads up" to the rest of you out there.
So how's that position working out for you?
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Old 04-29-2013, 07:30 PM   #22
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My take is that a correction is due, however it should be short in duration...weeks.

Companies remain flush with cash, fundamentals are strong in general, overall sentiment is that stocks are still cheap, lots of $$ on the sidelines; a correction would be a good time for many to jump back in.

JMHO, but what do I know...
+1, If a downturn never happens, I'm still happy with my current equity distribution. My guiding principle for investing is from a Joe Kennedy quote: "Only a fool holds out for the top dollar." [of course Joe Kennedy could afford to say that!]
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Old 04-29-2013, 07:38 PM   #23
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Yes, I agree (shorted in 2000), got out of real estate before bubble burst now due to QE infinty another market bubble in stocks. (Insiders have sold. Individual investors: if you think prices are low now (new bull) wait & you'll see how much lower they can go.) No inflation with 0% IR, it's deflation and has been for some time; depression on it's way. Cash is king then, watch out for custodial risk, e.g., bank should be at least A rated. Shorted Euro against $, ready to short markets. p.s. I do get some help with analysis, but final decision is always with me / you.
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Old 04-29-2013, 09:42 PM   #24
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I am buy & hold, not a market timer like some of you guys. That said, professional traders have a saying: "Don't fight the Fed." There is still a lot left in the punch bowl, so I don't expect there is going to be a major market sell off any time soon. Fed doesn't have much room to raise the rates and still have the gov't be able to finance the massive federal deficit. The federal deficit and associated deficit spending is the biggest problem facing our country.
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Old 04-30-2013, 12:11 AM   #25
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I'm astonished at how many experts there are here. And I thought this was a buy and hold index crowd.

Ha
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Old 04-30-2013, 01:24 AM   #26
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Nobody going away in May?
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Old 04-30-2013, 06:21 AM   #27
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Nobody going away in May?
Did you intend to post this on the travel thread?
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Old 04-30-2013, 06:38 AM   #28
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I'm astonished at how many experts there are here. And I thought this was a buy and hold index crowd.

Ha
I'm an expert. At nothing. A damn good one too.
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Old 04-30-2013, 07:05 AM   #29
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My portfolio is up 2.2% since the OP.

Yes, clearly time for a pull-back.
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Old 04-30-2013, 10:49 AM   #30
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Mine too...... and I take full credit for it by having posted my expectations that the opposite would happen

Of course, if that worked, now I'm going to post even MORE dire predictiions of doom and gloom!
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Old 04-30-2013, 11:29 AM   #31
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I am sitting at up 11.2% in my 401K....Got to love it but I am almost inclined to move a large portion to a safe fund and be happy with a 11.2% return for 2013. I always aim for double digit returns in my 401K, and have managed to hit that mark 9 of the last 10 years (well, hit 9.8% 1 year in there), so maybe it is time to walk out of the casino?

Heck, if I can just average 10% per year in return retirement in 11 years will be lots of fun (If only)
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Old 04-30-2013, 01:28 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
My portfolio is up 2.2% since the OP.

Yes, clearly time for a pull-back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EllisWyatt View Post
Mine too...... and I take full credit for it by having posted my expectations that the opposite would happen

Of course, if that worked, now I'm going to post even MORE dire predictiions of doom and gloom!
Mine is up only 1.4% over the past 10 days since this thread was begun, but please keep it up! I need to catch up with the rest of you. So, more gloomy predictions, please! Lots more. The results have been magnificent thus far. Much to my "whee-ful" pleasure, my portfolio value hit yet another lifetime high yesterday.
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:45 PM   #33
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I just looked...up about 9.4% so far this year, as of yesterday's close. I did move a little into MM funds yesterday, locking in some gains, and planning on throwing a big chunk at the mortgage this month.

And today, it looks like it's trending up again slightly. Whee!
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:53 PM   #34
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With bonds getting even more pricey, anyone care to venture when and if money market funds will break the buck?
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:04 PM   #35
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....Much to my "whee-ful" pleasure, my portfolio value hit yet another lifetime high yesterday.
We're DOOMED now. Wish you hadn't said that.
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Old 04-30-2013, 06:17 PM   #36
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Total investments up 12.30% annualized or 2.59% since 2/10/13 when I started weekly tracking. Or 19.35% annualized outside of cash/real estate accounts. I have my finger on the trigger if something smells fishy - I just don't know where to transfer to.
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Old 04-30-2013, 07:03 PM   #37
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I am selectively writing covered calls out to November through January 2014. I am expecting a sideways market for the balance of the year.
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Old 05-01-2013, 07:54 AM   #38
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I generally take a longer term perspective for market analysis / human species general economic trens (hunter /gather , etc.) than most: 80 years, 300 years, 5,000 years. One thing the data clearly shows in the markets (grafting British market to US in late 1700's). Is that in reality indivual investors are closet market timers, they buy high and when market drops so much they realize they can not recoup anything near price paid, they sell - not the geatest timing strategy, rather basic herding instinct. Sure buy & hold will work sometimes, if you bought in 1932 you broke even in 1964, re., stocks that go to zero are then excluded from index caclations. Bottomline: strategies must shift with the times. Diversified, index buy /hold is a killer right know unless you're going to wait it out 30-50 years. Individuals generally extrapulate the last trend into the future, disinflation in the 90's - it does not stop at zero and return to inflation, goes through x axis = deflation now. It's extremely evident. Peak oil: Bought a Hummer; Houses go up 16% per year, sold 2006 and rented, Dot.com Infinity / Dow 30,000 - shorted. Now: Cash & Cash eqivalents & shorted Euro (USD was dead) and soon will short major markets. (p.s. Not great cocktail party guest - lol)
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Old 05-01-2013, 08:00 AM   #39
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My guiding principle for investing is from a Joe Kennedy quote: "Only a fool holds out for the top dollar." [of course Joe Kennedy could afford to say that!]
...and how do you think Joe got to be able to afford to say that?
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Old 05-01-2013, 08:03 AM   #40
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As the old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent...
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