I generally take a longer term perspective for market analysis / human species general economic trens (hunter /gather , etc.) than most: 80 years, 300 years, 5,000 years. One thing the data clearly shows in the markets (grafting British market to US in late 1700's). Is that in reality indivual investors are closet market timers, they buy high and when market drops so much they realize they can not recoup anything near price paid, they sell - not the geatest timing strategy, rather basic herding instinct. Sure buy & hold will work sometimes, if you bought in 1932 you broke even in 1964, re., stocks that go to zero are then excluded from index caclations. Bottomline: strategies must shift with the times. Diversified, index buy /hold is a killer right know unless you're going to wait it out 30-50 years. Individuals generally extrapulate the last trend into the future, disinflation in the 90's - it does not stop at zero and return to inflation, goes through x axis = deflation now. It's extremely evident. Peak oil: Bought a Hummer; Houses go up 16% per year, sold 2006 and rented, Dot.com Infinity / Dow 30,000 - shorted. Now: Cash & Cash eqivalents & shorted Euro (USD was dead) and soon will short major markets. (p.s. Not great cocktail party guest - lol)