Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
COLA anyone?
Old 06-18-2011, 01:49 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W
Posts: 5,884
COLA anyone?

In a recent email from MOAA they speculated on next years COLA...

Quote:
Inflation climbed 0.5% in May, marking the ninth consecutive month the Consumer Price Index has risen. With four months left in the fiscal year, cumulative inflation stands at 3.4%. If that trend continues, retirees will be in line for a fairly substantial 2012 COLA.
__________________

__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-18-2011, 02:21 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,384
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
In a recent email from MOAA they speculated on next years COLA...
My retirement system fiscal year is July to June. Looking like a 3% plus cola for me, that is payable in January.
__________________

__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 03:43 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
arebelspy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 625
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan

My retirement system fiscal year is July to June. Looking like a 3% plus cola for me, that is payable in January.
From their fourth months left comment, it seems theirs runs oct-sept?

And since their cumulative is 3.4 and your is only 3, does that mean we had negative .4 inflation (or rather .4% deflation) from last July to oct?
__________________
arebelspy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 04:42 PM   #4
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
I'm sure the fed's will be happy since after a two year frozen SS increase will trigger an increased Medicare Part B deduction, which was frozen with SS adjustments the last two years.

Only those that filed for SS in the last two years had to pay the increase, but those on SS before that time did not have to pay the increased rate.

Depending on the possible SS COLA, along with the increase in Part B the increase may look like folks will be getting a small SS increase - if that.

Something else AARP can "make news" on ...
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:01 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,384
Quote:
Originally Posted by arebelspy

From their fourth months left comment, it seems theirs runs oct-sept?

And since their cumulative is 3.4 and your is only 3, does that mean we had negative .4 inflation (or rather .4% deflation) from last July to oct?
I was doing a little "guesstimating" on mine. if memory serves me the CPI was pretty low July to Sept. CPI has really only started to heat up the past 6 months or so. Our system does not have to give the full amount. By law they have to give at least 2%, if CPI is at 2% or above. If it reaches 5% they have to give the full 5% but no more than 5%.
__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:03 PM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
arebelspy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 625
Gotcha. Was just curious. Thanks.
__________________
arebelspy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:10 PM   #7
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,934
Here we have had drastically falling gas prices during the past month. If that is true all over the country, wouldn't that affect the CPI and lower the COLA?

I'm not expecting much of a FERS diet-COLA this year, and if I get one I would be pleased as punch. I have never seen one before. It might even cover part of the increase in my health insurance, which is subtracted out before I ever get my FERS deposit.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:15 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Here we have had drastically falling gas prices during the past month.
"Drastically?" Our gas prices here have fallen 12%, welcome, but far from drastic...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:26 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Northern Kentucky
Posts: 8,620
Quote:
Originally Posted by arebelspy View Post
From their fourth months left comment, it seems theirs runs oct-sept?

And since their cumulative is 3.4 and your is only 3, does that mean we had negative .4 inflation (or rather .4% deflation) from last July to oct?
Yes. The federal government's fiscal year is 1 Oct to 30 Sep. Long ago, it was 1 Jul to 30 Jun, but they moved it by a quarter in 1976.

The figures mickeyd referenced are shown here:

MOAA: COLA Watch

As the chart shows, inflation crossed over to positive around the end of last calendar year.
__________________
Pas de lieu Rhône que nous.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:28 PM   #10
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,934
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
"Drastically?" Our gas prices here have fallen 12%, welcome, but far from drastic...
So if you are paying $4.00/gallon then that brings it down to $3.52. OK, ours has dropped less than that, so maybe not dreadfully drastic but depending on how they weight it, well, gosh....

I still think the RV'ers on the board ought to be in 7th heaven.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:33 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Northern Kentucky
Posts: 8,620
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
depending on how they weight it ...
No, gasoline weighs a little over six pounds per gallon, no matter where you live.


Seriously, it dropped over 18% where I live, which I consider really significant.
__________________
Pas de lieu Rhône que nous.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:44 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,384
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
Here we have had drastically falling gas prices during the past month. If that is true all over the country, wouldn't that affect the CPI and lower the COLA?

I'm not expecting much of a FERS diet-COLA this year, and if I get one I would be pleased as punch. I have never seen one before. It might even cover part of the increase in my health insurance, which is subtracted out before I ever get my FERS deposit.
W2R- From what I've read (because I'm no expert), the CPI is projected to move upward modestly despite the recent reduction in gas prices. The producer price index had a lot of build up from previous months that are still being pushed through despite lower gas prices. Maybe it will be like it was a few years ago when inflation spiked the cola then inflation will recede after we get them. While I'm at it, I might as well hope for the perfect trifecta of 1) Nice cola 2) Receding gas prices 3) No healthcare premium increases on my healthcare premium!
__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:49 PM   #13
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,934
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan View Post
While I'm at it, I might as well hope for the perfect trifecta of 1) Nice cola
Possibly!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan
2) Receding gas prices
Probably! For a while, anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan
3) No healthcare premium increases on my healthcare premium!
What, are you out of your mind? No way! Not gonna happen in our lifetimes IMO.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:52 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
I still think the RV'ers on the board ought to be in 7th heaven.
Due to the fact diesel has declined only 8% here, more like 2nd heaven...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2011, 05:54 PM   #15
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,934
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Due to the fact diesel has declined only 8% here, more like 2nd heaven...
Oh drat, I didn't know they use diesel. Oh well, I guess 2nd heaven isn't bad for the time being...
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-19-2011, 08:14 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,646
The Feds calculate the COLA August to August for some strange reason. I haven't felt the impact of inflation so it will be nice to get a raise.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-19-2011, 08:39 AM   #17
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 16,571
We have already received the letter, 2.5% COLA effective July 1. But the copay for prescriptions has gone up drastically to it's probably a net decrease.

But at least we have prescription coverage so to us the glass is half full. One aunt just went on a new drug for leukemia. Cost is $10k per month! How can anyone of even close to normal income afford that?
__________________
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-19-2011, 03:45 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 152
This Fairmark Forum entry describes the overall impact of a potential 3.5% SS cola coupled with a predicted Medicare premium increase.

Fairmark Forum :: Retirement Savings and Benefits :: SS COLA Projection and Part B Premium for 2012
__________________
FurBall is offline   Reply With Quote
Another COLA analysis
Old 09-18-2011, 06:48 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 5,899
Another COLA analysis

I thought this was interesting -

Amethyst

SSA Cola Watch – September Report (Updated Monthly) | Social Security Potluck
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2011, 07:11 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,646
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
The summary is that if current trends continue thru Sept the SSA COLA will be about 3.5%. I think I heard a news report last week that inflation had stalled this month so maybe a bit less. Still looking like 3%+.
__________________

__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
COLA mickeyd FIRE and Money 11 04-25-2011 05:42 PM
COLA Watch...No COLA in 2011? mickeyd FIRE and Money 6 09-23-2010 08:48 AM
COLA fading? mickeyd FIRE and Money 5 07-24-2010 08:01 PM
COLA, anyone? mickeyd FIRE and Money 1 04-29-2007 11:48 AM
COLA mickeyd Other topics 0 09-17-2006 06:15 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:24 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.