Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 12-16-2014, 07:11 PM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,904
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
We are definitely not looking at WW3, unless Putin attacks the USA in some sort. Even if the entire EU is overtaken by Russia, it is not worth risking one American life. They have enough people in those countries to fight their own wars.
Yes, well, unfortunately we happen to be a member of this obscure organization called NATO and they were foolish enough to make a pact that if you attack a member, you attack the whole family. Lots of little former Russian goodies are now members of this club now.
__________________

__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-16-2014, 07:44 PM   #22
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 4,929
WW3 would be one of the portfolio failure modes described in The Retirement Calculator From Hell, Part III, where William J Bernstein describes the external risks that make any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% meaningless.

Quote:
Let’s examine a small sampling of possible political, economic, and military failure modes:
  • The mildest scenario is that of catastrophic inflation, as experienced in Germany and Hungary in the 1920s or, more recently, in much of the developing world.
  • Political failures are slightly worse, since these threaten the basic human motivation to work and produce. The state, for whatever reason, can decide to confiscate your assets or, worse, society’s means of production. Anyone who judges this unlikely should turn on CNN during any G-8 or WTO conference.
  • Local military action. Probably the lowest-probability item on this list, but something to think about on other continents.
  • The Big One: Some deranged prime minister or colonel in central Russia, Pyongyang, or South Asia could let loose the four horsemen upon the planet.
So, think about what a 97% 40-year success rate means: the absence of all of the above for approximately the next 1,200 years. (A 97% success rate means a 3% failure rate; those 40 years divided by 0.03 is 1,200 years.) Ignore for a minute the uncertainties of the less-developed world and think only about the winners: Germany—in this century alone, three episodes of military and/or economic disaster, the first two associated with mass starvation. Japan—wartime devastation even worse than Germany’s. England—near brushes with disaster in 1812-1814 and in both world wars. And even the United States—repeated banking failures, civil war, and the near-bankruptcy of the Treasury in the 19th century. The near collapse of the capitalist economy in the 1930s. And oh yes, I almost forgot—the entire globe barely missed mass incineration in October 1962.
History’s best-case scenario was the Roman Empire, which survived more or less intact for about seven centuries (if you ignore the odd sackings of the capital after 200 A.D.).
A wildly optimistic historian might give us another few centuries of economic, political, and military continuity. Back-of-the-envelope, that’s about an 80% survival rate over the next 40 years. Thus, any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless.
__________________

__________________
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:23 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,256
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
I'm worried about what Russia will do. These very low oil prices have put Putin in a bad spot. He's no doubt feeling domestic pressure, and will be tempted to do something to rouse the public behind the Motherland and forget about their inflation, commodity shortages, and falling standard of living. He'll have internal scapegoats, but will need external ones, too. A geopolitical/military flare-up of some kind is exactly what the doctor ordered, and by the time it's on TV in Moscow, it won't matter who really started it because they'll say whatever needs to be said, and the public will believe it (because they want to).
Those dancing in glee because Putin is in a pickle are ignoring history.

You would be wrong in him feeling domestic pressure... his approval rating is over 80%..... so far the drop in the ruble has not filtered down to the person on the street.... now, the big businesses are feeling the pinch, but not the masses yet...
__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:29 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
We are definitely not looking at WW3, unless Putin attacks the USA in some sort. Even if the entire EU is overtaken by Russia, it is not worth risking one American life. They have enough people in those countries to fight their own wars.

My personal thought is this. If a war starts anywhere, and we are not ready to use nuclear weapons from the get-go, it's not bad enough to get in.
But we have that pesky NATO treaty saying we will protect all of those countries if attacked.... most likely to start in the Balkins...


Opps... see that Fermion beat me to it....
__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:46 PM   #25
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
You would be wrong in him feeling domestic pressure... his approval rating is over 80%..... so far the drop in the ruble has not filtered down to the person on the street.... now, the big businesses are feeling the pinch, but not the masses yet...
Just give it a time. Cost of everything is quickly rising.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:46 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
You would be wrong in him feeling domestic pressure... his approval rating is over 80%..... so far the drop in the ruble has not filtered down to the person on the street.... now, the big businesses are feeling the pinch, but not the masses yet...
But his oligarch pals are "domestic pressure" too.
I wonder if today's Russian populace is really going to be as docile and patient as their long-suffering Soviet forebears. And even they finally got fed up with corruption and an obviously broken system.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:50 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,553
The American fracking industry did this. They should have been Time's people of the year.

Thank you, frackers!
__________________
gerntz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:51 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette View Post
WW3 would be one of the portfolio failure modes described in The Retirement Calculator From Hell, Part III, where William J Bernstein describes the external risks that make any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% meaningless.
With man-made calamities like what we have seen in the past, who needs asteroids?

And Bernstein pointed out that 97% success rate for a 40-year retirement means no major upheavals for 1200 years. So, why people keep bothering with 100% FIRECalc runs?

Party on, people! You don't have as much control of your future as you think. You certainly influence its course, but the outcome is never 100% certain as you hope for and plan. Party on!
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:54 PM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Maybe there will be new "elections" and the oligarchy will find a new "candidate" to win.

In other news, I bought five figures of international value fund just a day too early. Catching falling knives can leave the occasional gash in your hands.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (5, 11, and 12).
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 08:56 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I heard Stuart Varney say today on his show that the current oil glut and drop in crude prices (and the Collapse of the Ruble) was due in large part to "fracking". I'm not sure how true that is but I thought it was an interesting comment.
That's a bit convoluted. The oil price drop is due to speculators dumping oil since Saudi Arabia said they wouldn't cut production. Some have speculated that Saudi Arabia did this to shut down the US fracking industry, although why they wouldn't have taken up such a step a year or two ago is a big question in my mind. It's just as likely they did it to hurt Russia directly, IMO. Only they know what their strategy is.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:05 PM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
That's a bit convoluted. The oil price drop is due to speculators dumping oil since Saudi Arabia said they wouldn't cut production. Some have speculated that Saudi Arabia did this to shut down the US fracking industry, although why they wouldn't have taken up such a step a year or two ago is a big question in my mind. It's just as likely they did it to hurt Russia directly, IMO. Only they know what their strategy is.
That's totally convoluted. The Saudis didn't do it before because the price of oil wasn't dropping. Duh.

Of course speculators are dumping oil (Dumping rubles is the same thing. It's all Russia produces.). What else are they going to do with it?

There's too much for the demand due to the frackers' production increasing & Saudis not cutting production. While they're hurting the frackers, the Saudis also hurting themselves & most importantly, hurting Russia even more. No love lost there with their cozy relationships with Iran & Syria.

As I said above, praise to the American frackers!! We should give them a tax credit for their production.
__________________
gerntz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:14 PM   #32
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I heard Stuart Varney say today on his show that the current oil glut and drop in crude prices (and the Collapse of the Ruble) was due in large part to "fracking". I'm not sure how true that is but I thought it was an interesting comment.
This made me laugh! Stuart Varney showing he knows nothing about the oil industry.

We have been fraccing wells in the U.S. since the 1940's....how else do you think oil drillers break up the oil-rich rock formations to get the oil and gas out?
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:18 PM   #33
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerntz View Post
That's totally convoluted. The Saudis didn't do it before because the price of oil wasn't dropping. Duh.

Of course speculators are dumping oil (Dumping rubles is the same thing. It's all Russia produces.). What else are they going to do with it?

There's too much for the demand due to the frackers' production increasing & Saudis not cutting production. While they're hurting the frackers, the Saudis also hurting themselves & most importantly, hurting Russia even more. No love lost there with their cozy relationships with Iran & Syria.

As I said above, praise to the American frackers!! We should give them a tax credit for their production.
DEF: frackers = oil producing companies...AKA...all oil companies that explore, lease acreage and drill wells looking for oil. This would include Exxon Mobil, Anadarko, Conoco Phillips, Marathon, EOG Resources, Chevron, etc, etc...

Blaming "The Frackers" sounds like a reality TV show or similar.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:22 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,456
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerntz View Post
That's totally convoluted. The Saudis didn't do it before because the price of oil wasn't dropping. Duh.
So the Saudis waited until the price of oil started dropping a little before they made it drop a whole lot further by refusing to cut production?
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:26 PM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,913
Recent years "fracked" oil production is piddling compared to other traditional extraction practices.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 09:34 PM   #36
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
Recent years "fracked" oil production is piddling compared to other traditional extraction practices.
Yes, what's being done now is very controlled and precise, kind of like taking out an enemy tank with a laser guided bomb instead of like the old days when you would try to blow up the whole town and hope to get the tank.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 10:05 PM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,904
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
With man-made calamities like what we have seen in the past, who needs asteroids?

And Bernstein pointed out that 97% success rate for a 40-year retirement means no major upheavals for 1200 years. So, why people keep bothering with 100% FIRECalc runs?

Party on, people! You don't have as much control of your future as you think. You certainly influence its course, but the outcome is never 100% certain as you hope for and plan. Party on!
I would beg of some one who is not mathophobic as I am to explain to me why the calculation of a 97% success rate for a 40 year retirement means no mayor upheval for 1,200 years and how what happens over 1200 years affects my measly remaining few decades (at best) on this earth. Oh, by the way 40/.03 =1333.33
__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 10:36 PM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,904
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejman View Post
I would beg of some one who is not mathophobic as I am to explain to me why the calculation of a 97% success rate for a 40 year retirement means no mayor upheval for 1,200 years and how what happens over 1200 years affects my measly remaining few decades (at best) on this earth. Oh, by the way 40/.03 =1333.33
If you have a major upheaval every 40 years then you have a 100% chance of failure in your 40 year retirement plan. In order to only have a 3% chance of failure (assuming everything else was perfect in your investments and SWR) you would need a major upheaval to only happen an average of once every 1200 years.

Reminds me for some reason of the guy who carries a bomb with him when he flies because what are the odds of two people having a bomb on an airplane.
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2014, 10:58 PM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,904
Got it. Anybody contemplating a 40 year retirement is doomed to 100% failure. Whew! its a good thing I'm 65 so at best I got a maximum of 35 years - just under the wire!
__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2014, 12:03 AM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
No, not 100% failure over 40 years. But it is impossible to say that it will be 0. In the history of the US since 1776 till 2014, there have been big events like the American Revolution itself, the Civil War, the two World Wars, the Great Depression, etc... Quite a few big events in 238 years. So, how can we say that there's 0% chance of anything big happening in the next 40 years, that won't affect us in a bad way?

I again will say that I am more worried about something happens to me personally, the main thing being health deterioration. Something bad already happened to me while I least expected it, and I recovered but have "nice" surgical scars to show for it. Many Most of us will not be posting here in 40 years. Anybody cares to make a guess how many will be left? Definitely not 97%. I am not sure of the age composition of posters here, but I think much less than 50%, maybe even 25% 10%, will be left standing, er breathing, as quite a few will be alive but bedridden.

And Bernstein was just rounding off 1333 years to a nice number of 1200. When we talk about probability and randomness, a rough order of magnitude is sufficient to make a point.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Yen, Ruble, Dollar imoldernu FIRE and Money 3 11-02-2014 05:41 AM
Hedge Fund Collapse.......... FinanceDude Young Dreamers 7 09-27-2006 01:14 PM
Finite Resources - investment or collapse? veritasophia FIRE and Money 36 07-07-2006 08:38 AM
The Coming Economic Collapse Hydroman Other topics 105 04-23-2006 06:20 PM
Reading 'Collapse' got me thinking Nicholas Other topics 8 06-20-2005 11:13 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:52 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.