Commodity Prices and Fund Failures

[Alan]

Originally Posted by FUEGO

Nah, it is called rebalancing when I do it. I don't care what you call it when you do it! The time proved to be opportune only in hindsight, by the way.

I also "rebalanced" into international investments. That hasn't turned out so well. But it is about time to rebalance some more into international pretty soon.

Edited to add: I did "market time" into a financials ETF within a day of the low point. I will call that market timing since it does not fit into my asset allocation policy. Maybe 20% market timing and 80% dumb luck...

After you rebalanced was your asset allocation the same as before you rebalanced. It certainly doesn't sound like it, which means a shift in asset classes which means .....

If looks like it and smells like it then it probably is it

[huskerblue]

For those looking for someone calling oil going down to 60 bucks about the time it was at 130, read John Hussman's site.His HSGRX is the bright spot in my portfolio along with the GIC's and cash. You may not like his style but his weekly commentary on Monday morning is a good read.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I made about the same call on this very web site for free a couple of months ago.

Anyone want to buy my newsletter yet?

[FIREdreamer]

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

I made about the same call on this very web site for free a couple of months ago.

Anyone want to buy my newsletter yet?

me, me, me!
I have been waiting since last year to add some commodities to my low correlation portfolio so I sure would love to know when to finally get in! When will we reach the bottom oh wise one? The check's on its way...

[huskerblue]

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

I made about the same call on this very web site for free a couple of months ago.

Anyone want to buy my newsletter yet?

His commentary is free:

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook for Inflation and the Likelihood of $60 Oil - July 7, 2008

It's too bad we all can't be as smart as you.....and have the time to post 21,000 times.

[chinaco]

Originally Posted by huskerblue

His commentary is free:

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook for Inflation and the Likelihood of $60 Oil - July 7, 2008

It's too bad we all can't be as smart as you.....and have the time to post 21,000 times.

Bunny is a charter member of the forum.

That's what ER does... provides one with free time to do as they choose.


As far as the prediction on oil prices (and some other commodities)... It was over done. The net result was predictable. We will see if prices go down to $60. I hope they do. And I hope they settle in at that price or lower. But that may be too much to hope for.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Originally Posted by huskerblue

It's too bad we all can't be as smart as you.....and have the time to post 21,000 times.

You could always take up one of the religions that believes in reincarnation and hope for a better result next time!

[2B]

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

You could always take up one of the religions that believes in reincarnation and hope for a better result next time!

Or comment on every thread multiple times for a few years.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Hate the game, dont hate the playah...

Besides, I only comment on maybe 10-15% of the threads here, and quite often only once!

[2B]

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

Hate the game, dont hate the playah...

Besides, I only comment on maybe 10-15% of the threads here, and quite often only once!

You could have fooled me. The only time I think I comment on a thread before you do is when I start it.

[windsurf]

As to oil, the games will go on but the flow will eventually become much more expensive with gradual and sudden fluctuations in the graph. Next year or five years is not the point for a long view. My bet is that energy funds are a very vital albeit minority aspect of a portfolio that is supposed to provide growth for the next 25 years.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Originally Posted by 2B

You could have fooled me. The only time I think I comment on a thread before you do is when I start it.

Thats because I dont comment on anything unless its interesting and other smart people will want to get involved

[FUEGO]

Originally Posted by Alan

After you rebalanced was your asset allocation the same as before you rebalanced. It certainly doesn't sound like it, which means a shift in asset classes which means .....

If looks like it and smells like it then it probably is it

Yes, my target asset allocation was the same before and after rebalancing. My actual holdings were (obviously) different after I rebalanced. I still didn't get to my target asset allocation when I rebalanced back in Feb/March 2008 though (due to tax strategies, where I choose to hold what, and available fund choices in different accounts and IRA's, 401k's etc).

[headingout]

Follow up: It's a good thing I wrote that post a week ago about my commodity position. (Another benefit of posting in this great forum is that it makes you really think about your situation.) I've been so focused on buy-and-hold and my stock/bond AA that I wasn't checking my other allocations carefully enough. Turns out my commodity position was way too high. Decided the capital gains tax was the lesser of evils vs. being seriously overweighted in commodities. I sold about 1/3 of it (my first sale of an equity position in 12 months), realizing a 15% annualized gain over the past 5 years. Would have been quite a bit higher had I noticed this 2 months ago. Live and learn. I have a new spreadsheet tab now to watch my returns/AA even closer. So I have some new cash to DCA into the market. I'm still buying stocks. They are what's (relatively) cheap, and I have a ways yet to go get my stock/bond AA back to target, with the decline in stocks.