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Comparing Bear Markets from 1929 to Early 2009
02-25-2009, 02:00 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 170
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Comparing Bear Markets from 1929 to Early 2009
As of Feb 24th:
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02-25-2009, 02:01 PM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 170
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2000-2002 Tech Bubble does not look so bad now.
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02-25-2009, 02:06 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
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No, I'm not calling a bottom, but if one considers this the second major down leg of a secular bear market that started in 2000, that would have mapped to about 1938 in Depression-era bear market and in late 1974 in the 1966-82 secular bear market. And note that the sharp declines ending in 1938 and 1974 were of about the same magnitude, nearly a 50% haircut.
Not significant, perhaps, but I find it a little interesting in a can't-take-my-eyes-off-the-train-wreck sort of way.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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02-25-2009, 02:17 PM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
No, I'm not calling a bottom, but if one considers this the second major down leg of a secular bear market that started in 2000,
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I am looking at it in terms of weeks. The average is about 90 weeks.
Based on that I am thinking another 12-15% down and another 15-20 weeks.
Lower forward earnings = price contractions in share prices.
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02-25-2009, 03:54 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Nice chart there! It would be interesting to see the same thing done for bull markets that started at the end of those periods.
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02-25-2009, 03:58 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lsbcal
Nice chart there! It would be interesting to see the same thing done for bull markets that started at the end of those periods.
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Well, the single best calendar year on record for U.S. stocks was 1933, so...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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02-25-2009, 05:02 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Well, the single best calendar year on record for U.S. stocks was 1933, so...
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Yes, a very good year. Here is a link to a brighter-side-of-the-Depression story:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Finding-a-silver-lining-Great/story.aspx?guid={08E3BCA1-506B-4A66-839C-C128CFEA6546}
Excerpt:
Quote:
Furthermore, over the five years beginning at the end of 1930, the stock market, on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis, produced a 7% annualized return -- notwithstanding the 60% drop in the first five months of that five-year period.
In other words, even if you had been so unlucky as to buy stocks right before a six-month decline of 60%, you would have been whole again within just two years and would have earned a 7% real return over the next five years.
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02-25-2009, 06:51 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Using technical analysis, I integrated the product of the cosine of the asymtote, then divided by the number of ice cream cones it takes to cover a dog house, and concluded the we're about at the median length-wise, but percentage decline is a different story...
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02-25-2009, 07:06 PM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
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The current line is the closest in slope to that of the great depression! Eerie!
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02-25-2009, 07:12 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Only steeper...
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Have Funds, Will Retire
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02-25-2009, 07:13 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
Only steeper...
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And, unless we are lucky, it isn't over yet!
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