Stanley
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2013
- Messages
- 194
All of the talk on other threads about conservative investing and inflation made me go back to Firecalc and look at what might happen to my success rate if the inflation rate was just 1% more a year - 4% versus 3%.
First, I ran Firecalc using the CPI index. Then, I changed the parameters to use first a 3% inflation rate and then a 4% inflation rate. I ran the simulation for a 35 year period. 50/50 asset allocation.
Using the historical CPI and the 3% inflation rate I had a 95% success rate. Very nice! When I changed the inflation rate to 4% the success rate dropped to 65%.
So, a 30% decrease in the success rate if inflation increases by just 1% a year!!
I realize we are all in different situations in regard to where our retirement income comes from, but I am wondering what others have found when the inflation rate is increased by 1% a year?
First, I ran Firecalc using the CPI index. Then, I changed the parameters to use first a 3% inflation rate and then a 4% inflation rate. I ran the simulation for a 35 year period. 50/50 asset allocation.
Using the historical CPI and the 3% inflation rate I had a 95% success rate. Very nice! When I changed the inflation rate to 4% the success rate dropped to 65%.
So, a 30% decrease in the success rate if inflation increases by just 1% a year!!
I realize we are all in different situations in regard to where our retirement income comes from, but I am wondering what others have found when the inflation rate is increased by 1% a year?
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