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Old 06-02-2016, 11:09 AM   #241
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I am a naysayer- because the math just doesn't work. I'm doubtful any couple can keep their spending consistently below a draw down of 4% on their $670k spendable portfolio for 40 to 50 years. Especially when market is projected to not return 7%!look at the historic market return since 2000... And Trinity was only for a 25 year time frame. They are not currently adding to assets.
+1

That kind of portfolio, budget and young age has no space for any kind of error.

Unless they start making ton of money of off their blog.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:13 AM   #242
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One of my favorite photo blogs: Van Life

Great ideas in there for building custom kitchens and other setups to make travel/camping easier.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:22 AM   #243
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I am a naysayer- because the math just doesn't work. I'm doubtful any couple can keep their spending consistently below a draw down of 4% on their $670k spendable portfolio for 40 to 50 years. Especially when market is projected to not return 7%!look at the historic market return since 2000... And Trinity was only for a 25 year time frame. They are not currently adding to assets.

These kids will grow up and figure it out. Either find a way to augment portfolio ( which is called work) or get really lucky. My bet is they go back to some form of work.
Except they have a $270k house in a great prime downtown location that has a separate basement apartment. Virtually zero chance they won't make a small mint renting that out (either airbnb like they mention or traditional long term lease).

And while they are traveling they might be able to rent out their whole house and more than cover the cost of their travels.

It's more like they have a $670k* portfolio where the asterisk contains a big footnote.

Sure, they may do something productive that pays at some point. It wouldn't take much effort to make an extra $10-12k per year and get them to $40k per year in spending (plus a paid off house). Whether that means renting their basement apartment and/or their primary residence while away or some extremely part time fun work (=blog?). If they work 3 hours per week and make $6k from the blog and $6k/yr from their rental efforts, did they unretire themselves?

I sent Travis the link to this thread. I hope they are laughing at the banality of the discussion.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:23 AM   #244
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One of my favorite photo blogs: Van Life

Great ideas in there for building custom kitchens and other setups to make travel/camping easier.
But you're still borderline homeless unless you're in a $500,000 Class A motorhome. Even if you do have a million dollars in productive assets backing your lifestyle.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:33 AM   #245
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Fun times with FIREcalc:

$25,000 annual withdrawals from a $670,000 portfolio for 35 years gives 96% success rate.

In 35 years they will probably get SS equal to $25,000 (possibly needing a few quarters here and there to qualify depending on whether their Canada earnings credits transfer).

$25k represents an amount 56% higher than the poverty line (ignoring the fact that they have a paid off house that will likely generate significant rental income). Our family of five lived quite well last year here in NC on $25k and a paid off home. Surely the FwB folks are as smart as me and can do more with just 2 of them.

96% chance of enjoying life significantly above the poverty line in perpetuity? First world problem.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:37 AM   #246
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2016 FPL for 2 people is 16K and goes up with inflation, so unless you increase that drawdown with inflation it will go below the FPL at some point - is the 25K inflation adjusted? I don't use firecalc, I have my own model.

https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:39 AM   #247
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2016 FPL for 2 people is 16K, not 12.5K


https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines
$25000 / $16000 = 1.56 = "$25000 is 56% higher than the poverty level"

Plus they have a paid off home that's a duplex in practice.
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:40 AM   #248
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$25000 / $16000 = 1.56 = "$25000 is 56% higher than the poverty level"

Plus they have a paid off home that's a duplex in practice.
hopefully they can rent that out for a few grand a month
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Old 06-02-2016, 11:59 AM   #249
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hopefully they can rent that out for a few grand a month
I have no clue what the rental market is like in Asheville, but the renturchase price is pretty high in North Carolina generally. I imagine a $270,000 property would bring $1500-2200/mo, especially if there really is a viable separate basement apartment ($600 basement apartment, $1000 main living space?).

Just my guess. But big rental revenue doesn't appear necessary for their fairly modest lifestyle and love of budget travel.

edit: cheapest 2 BR 4+ guest airbnb rental in downtown Asheville is ~$125/nt. Not hard to swing a net of $1000/mo with minimal effort (outsource the cleaning). The $125/nt place is booked 14 nights in June so far, so 50%+ occupancy rate is realistic at the right price. That would net $1500/mo.
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Old 06-02-2016, 12:02 PM   #250
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Fun times with FIREcalc:

$25,000 annual withdrawals from a $670,000 portfolio for 35 years gives 96% success rate.

In 35 years they will probably get SS equal to $25,000 (possibly needing a few quarters here and there to qualify depending on whether their Canada earnings credits transfer).

$25k represents an amount 56% higher than the poverty line (ignoring the fact that they have a paid off house that will likely generate significant rental income). Our family of five lived quite well last year here in NC on $25k and a paid off home. Surely the FwB folks are as smart as me and can do more with just 2 of them.

96% chance of enjoying life significantly above the poverty line in perpetuity? First world problem.
Hopefully they have a huge emergency fund.
Just in case a bear market comes along. Or a market crash.
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Old 06-02-2016, 12:08 PM   #251
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Just my guess. But big rental revenue doesn't appear necessary for their fairly modest lifestyle and love of budget travel.
sounds like they don't have to worry about getting stuck next to a fat guy on a plane

best wishes to them!
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Old 06-02-2016, 12:16 PM   #252
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Hopefully they have a huge emergency fund.
Just in case a bear market comes along. Or a market crash.
I think many people over-think this. There is no real need to work in the USA. When I was a Section 8 landlord, my renters worked for cash and made decent spending money.

Plus, they had a 3BR house to live in , all utilities paid. Money to buy groceries. And some pocket money deposited every month. At Christmas, they got toys from various groups. Great medical care.

And they were effectively 'retired' at 18 years old.

This couple seems to want to be more self-sufficient, but there are plenty of ways to do the same thing at an even younger age.
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Old 06-02-2016, 12:24 PM   #253
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Hey everyone, I just got an update from them 50 years in the future from fNet (future internet - don't ask how it works).*

Outliving our retirement funds
"At 88 and 87, I'm glad my wife and I are alive, but scared we'll live much longer. We're out of money."

Outliving our retirement funds - Baltimore Sun





*Actually, I just happened on a relevant op-ed today from a failed retirement I thought I'd share. Lesson: don't count on income streams always being there.

Unfortunately for them, at that age, working is likely out of the question especially with one of them having dementia/Alzheimer. Though I wonder why they don't try a reverse mortgage or something. Sad story, but a reminder of why some folks on here have plans A-F to fall back on.
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Old 06-02-2016, 12:57 PM   #254
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You mean the ones that equate homelessness and sleeping in one's car with camping in an upfitted 4x4 on a multi-month overland trip while you have a million bucks in the bank?

Or were there other naysayers with more reasonable objections?

If Bill Gates decided to sleep on the beach on Richard Branson's private island because the weather was perfect (and because he could!), I imagine some here would say "not the lifestyle for me / no way would I retire to a life of deprivation like that! / shoulda saved more, Bill!".
Lol yep because no matter how much lipstick you put on a pig its still a pig. Sleeping in the trunk of a car is still the trunk of a car. You can slap all the hydraulics you want, still the back seat.

So yes, no way would I retire to that nor was I overly impressed.
That's all

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Old 06-02-2016, 01:00 PM   #255
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Hey everyone, I just got an update from them 50 years in the future from fNet (future internet - don't ask how it works).*
Good article. I live in a neighborhood with a lot of elderly retirees who were once white collar professionals and unfortunately this does not seem to be an uncommon problem. Most people in the general population just aren't good at long term planning or have the ability to plan for worst case scenarios, which are not unusual over decades of retirement.

Our neighbors are part of the reason we still follow a LBYMs lifestyle. We don't want to end up like some of them. We're leaving a cushion for the "unknown unknowns".
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Old 06-02-2016, 01:53 PM   #256
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Lol yep because no matter how much lipstick you put on a pig its still a pig. Sleeping in the trunk of a car is still the trunk of a car. You can slap all the hydraulics you want, still the back seat.

So yes, no way would I retire to that nor was I overly impressed.
That's all
Totally agree. $500k class A diesel motorhome or homelessness. That's all.
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Old 06-02-2016, 02:11 PM   #257
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Interesting the controversy that this article generated on an Early retirement forum. Certainly this young couple doesn't have the gold plated, belt and suspenders plan espoused by many members of this forum, but I am surprised by the vitriol of some of the responses here. Yes, they may end up going back to work after a few years, but I give them credit for at least trying to follow their dreams. This thread did inspire me to check out their blog. Their numbers and plans don't seem quite as solid as I would choose, but they are young and optimistic and hopefully flexible enough to make it work. I wish them well.


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Old 06-02-2016, 02:13 PM   #258
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I wish them well.


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me too. at least they are giving it a shot
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Old 06-02-2016, 02:18 PM   #259
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According to the logic displayed in this thread by some, there is no substantial difference between a hippie with no assets other than a beat up VW van and a half cashed bong and the same hippie with a million dollars in income producing assets (plus the van and bong).
I just wanted to go on record as saying that having a million dollars, a van, and a bong sounds like great fun

This has been an interesting thread. Having taken the time to stand back and view it from a distance, so to speak, I realized that I can see all the points of view expressed here and can, at least partially, agree with them all. The thing that put my hackles up though, was the abrupt, opinionated and frankly, curmudgeonly way in which some of the dissenting opinions were expressed, and not the actual content of those opinions.

We all communicate differently, I suppose.

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I think many people over-think this.
Hangonasec. Are you saying that in this forum, people are actually overthinking things?

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One of my favorite photo blogs: Van Life
I just briefly checked out his Instagram, and love the photos. The big Lewbowski quote on his Instagram profile is great too! As a bit of a square, I really appreciate the presence of creative spirits. They knock off my corners and prevent me from disappearing down the rabbit hole of eternal squaredom
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Old 06-02-2016, 02:29 PM   #260
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I'm going to make it my goal this year to earn $50k writing about travel and retirement. Except that sounds way too much like work. And might interfere with, you know, actual travel and retirement pursuits. I bet Travis and Amanda at FreedomwithBruno would agree with me.



You should write about it. $50k easy money, no problem, no skills required. Show those millennials what a little effort, hard work and dedication can do.
well for my honey that would be retirement.. he loves writing, blogs all the time but not for money..and is never ever going to stop podcasting and yacking whether people listen or pay him or not...thats what he wants Financial independence for.. to be free to write/talk about anything he wants rather than be restricted to what a publisher/boss wants. Each to their own... its not work when its your passion and you can stop at any moment because you don't need to get paid.. if you happen to, bonus.
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