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Old 01-25-2013, 11:53 AM   #61
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I really am a stay the course type person. However that "whee" proclamation has me deeply concerned today. Not quite to my rebalance bands but maybe it's no time to be greedy.
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Old 01-25-2013, 11:59 AM   #62
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I really am a stay the course type person. However that "whee" proclamation has me deeply concerned today. Not quite to my rebalance bands but maybe it's no time to be greedy.
Or maybe it's no time to deviate from your AA plan - or why have it?
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:03 PM   #63
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Or maybe it's no time to deviate from your AA plan - or why have it?
Thanks for the voice of reason. You're right, stick to the plan. I guess maybe the boredom of a cold winter day got the best of me.
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:03 PM   #64
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2 different takes of the market rally

Dow Nears Record, but Is It Just Another Bubble? - Yahoo! Finance

Blankfein: Rally on Despite 'People Under-Invested' - Yahoo! Finance
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:21 PM   #65
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I really am a stay the course type person. However that "whee" proclamation has me deeply concerned today. Not quite to my rebalance bands but maybe it's no time to be greedy.
I think it's OK to be afraid. See below.

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If you think THIS was bad, just wait....



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Even if a guy holds 100% CD, he is still believing in something, and it just happens that I do not share that belief.
Talk about beliefs, a friend of mine was fond of saying "I believe I will have another beer".

And he always held true to that belief.


PS. Seriously, we may have different reasons for holding, but I am not selling nor buying nor rebalancing anything at this point.
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:43 PM   #66
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I think we are all exposed to way too much financial porn and some get bit by the analysis paralysis bug. Yea we may be hitting new highs but look at the trend since 1929, and we are always going to be hitting new highs. Isn't that the direction we should be going over the long term ? Barring an major international event I see slow steady growth at least for the short term. The big unknown is how the US government is going to address the growing debt issue. Just my two cents and I am a died in the wool indexer and after getting a 11% return last year, I'd be happy for a repeat.
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Old 01-25-2013, 04:37 PM   #67
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I think we are all exposed to way too much financial porn and some get bit by the analysis paralysis bug. Yea we may be hitting new highs but look at the trend since 1929, and we are always going to be hitting new highs. Isn't that the direction we should be going over the long term ? Barring an major international event I see slow steady growth at least for the short term. The big unknown is how the US government is going to address the growing debt issue. Just my two cents and I am a died in the wool indexer and after getting a 11% return last year, I'd be happy for a repeat.
+1 (And I might add that dips --read "bubble bursts" -- are also the "norm." At least it has been in my lifetime. If you are down to your final five years* and there is only a $25,000 balance in your Portfolio, then you may (repeat, may) have cause for some concern. Otherwise, just think of it as "business as usual."

*Say, for instance, you are 90-95 years old and no longer feel like you are in your fifties.
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Old 01-25-2013, 07:46 PM   #68
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[QUOTE=NW-Bound;1275685]I think the economy is improving, albeit at a slow pace that some people might say it does not justify the stock market rise.

That's my feeling......
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:08 PM   #69
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A great deal of uncertainty was removed from the US economy and market on Jan 1 and again this past week. The global macro outlook seems to be less uncertain as well. Don't underestimate the power of less uncertainty. Don't be surprised if animal spirits continue for a while. Animal spirits are rarely justified, yet they happen all the same.

Doesn't anyone remember how black things looked just a few weeks ago?
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Old 01-26-2013, 07:18 AM   #70
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Here we go again. Another pump and dump scheme, and the sheeple will get slaughtered.
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Old 01-26-2013, 07:35 AM   #71
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My guess (and only a guess) is that the next likely time of market turmoil will come when the sequestration issue needs to be addressed (or, more likely, kicked further down the road).

I'm enjoying my gains but don't expect them to grow like this for the rest of the year. I simply maintain my AA and have enough invested that I'm willing to continue to weather short term moves for long term gains.
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Old 01-26-2013, 07:51 AM   #72
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IMO people (and investors) were really depressed and expecting the worst last year - especially late in the year. We got past the end of the world, and things aren't looking quite so dark. IMO it'll take a while for investors to get used to this newer rosier outlook. Some folks are probably just now getting their 401K statements and realizing 2012 was actually a good year! That tends to turn people bullish. Once the good news and expectations are completely baked in, then you run out of ammo to move markets higher.

Not that we might not see the 2013 highs in Jan, but I think it takes longer for these kinds of collective emotions to shake out.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:00 AM   #73
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Not that we might not see the 2013 highs in Jan, but I think it takes longer for these kinds of collective emotions to shake out.
My experience is an upward market can continue to climb for many, many months beyond what you would expect - and the same holds true for a declining market.

Wouldn't surprise me to see an upward tend continue into 2014 or beyond* - not that there won't be some bumps along the way.

*My market predictions are 98.4% inaccurate.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:23 AM   #74
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I still remember my early days as an "investor" (for want of a better description) when I thought that markets continued going up, and never corrected.

I'm glad I learned that lesson early on
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:28 AM   #75
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My experience is an upward market can continue to climb for many, many months beyond what you would expect - and the same holds true for a declining market.

Wouldn't surprise me to see an upward tend continue into 2014 or beyond* - not that there won't be some bumps along the way.

*My market predictions are 98.4% inaccurate.
That bull started its run in March, 2009. Let's hope it is not thinking about ER anytime soon.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:45 AM   #76
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When one thinks about it, the S&P 500 bull run started back (recovery) in March 2009. Last year it had a gain of 16%, and YTD is over 4%. It is an aging bull, and has all the markings of the blow out at the market top. And it is at the 1500 psychological gut check level. But alternatives investments available are not looking any better, and if you are a mutual fund investor at Vanguard, it does not allow you to go in and out of funds to do market timing. I think Vanguard's rule is that when you sell a fund, you cannot buy back the same fund for 90 days.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:00 AM   #77
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I think of the sayings pigs get fed and hogs slottered. My portfolio finally recoved to my pre 2008 levels. I shifted it to a more conservative allocation this week.

This run may have more growth but I'm not gready.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:11 AM   #78
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I think it is healthy to look skeptically at any sustained run in the market, either up or down. I know the system is rigged, with the banksters having an unfair advantage. Unfortunately, it is the only game in town, so we are all forced to put our money in.

I decided after the dot com bubble not to ride the market down again. If I think that the market is correcting, I will put everything into the backyard fund (no interest/no income), and wait until I feel it has bottomed. Do I miss some runs...yes. Do I succeed in selling high and buying low every time...no. But I did manage to make 10+% in 2007/2008 by missing 15% of the drop.

I would love to get 5% return a month....hell, I could retire today if I knew I could get 5% a month:-) I think I could live well off the $40,000 investment gains this month.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:03 AM   #79
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I know the system is rigged, with the banksters having an unfair advantage.
Does that include bankers like JP Morgan who lost $6 billion last year? Or numerous others like Bear Stearns that got liquidated for $10/share, compared to the high price of $133/share prior to the credit crisis of 2007-2008?

I have been doing quite OK without their advantage, thank you.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Apologizes for ‘Whale’ Loss | FOX8.com

Bear Stearns - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:16 AM   #80
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I'm glad I learned that lesson early on
And now you are a dedicated, fully-committed "Market Timer"?
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