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Old 01-26-2013, 09:01 PM   #121
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Whenever I start taking the doomsters too seriously I remember what this fellow had to say during practically my entire adult life. Granville Says Dow Industrial May Drop Toward 8,000 in 2012 - Bloomberg

If I had paid attention to him I would still be working
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:01 PM   #122
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Are you suggesting my asteroid needs fixing?
The have some good surgeries available, methinks.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:03 PM   #123
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I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
Ummm, that is why you want to hold other asset classes besides equities, hopefully relatively uncorrelated.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:06 PM   #124
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Here, here!
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:08 PM   #125
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Ummm, that is why you want to hold other asset classes besides equities, hopefully relatively uncorrelated.
My comment was not about asset allocation, but to address the point, previously, for some people in the accumulative phase, a bear market may be a buying opportunity, but that is not true for many who are in ER.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:15 PM   #126
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My comment was not about asset allocation, but to address the point, previously, for some people in the accumulative phase, a bear market may be a buying opportunity, but that is not true for many who are in ER.
The hell it isn't true! Stocks plunge, other stuff in your portfolio stays flattish or actually goes up: buying opportunity! Sell the stuff that did better (on the margin at least) and buy more of what plunged. Voila, buying opportunity for the retired.

Of course, if you don't want to hold a well diversified portfolio you can always check out some of the squirrel recipes I have posted in the ER Forum Cookbook thread...
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:18 PM   #127
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I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
I was ER'd in 1999, which meant I got through the dot-com bust, (there was also a 2002 credit crisis which caused the worst of the 2002 bear), 9/11, the 2008 market meltdown and financial crisis, and the recent European panics. Cash is part of my asset allocation, and during those times that some of it was deployed to buy depressed assets. There is no reason that ER folks can't take advantage of buying opportunities.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:19 PM   #128
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I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
I understand completely. I retired in 2005 and 'enjoyed' the stress test of 2008 from the no-longer-have-a-job side. It wasn't pleasant but those of us who had a couple of years of cash, who didn't panic and who didn't sell came through OK.

I'm expecting to hear 'next time will be different', and for all I know it could be. But I'm not willing to bet against history and I plan on maintaining my AA for the foreseeable future. I'm not smart enough to know whether I should zig or zag so I'll hold what I've got - and keep an eye out for asteroids.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:22 PM   #129
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You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:24 PM   #130
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You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
And that applies to this discussion...how?
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:26 PM   #131
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The hell it isn't true! Stocks plunge, other stuff in your portfolio stays flattish or actually goes up: buying opportunity! Sell the stuff that did better (on the margin at least) and buy more of what plunged. Voila, buying opportunity for the retired.

Of course, if you don't want to hold a well diversified portfolio you can always check out some of the squirrel recipes I have posted in the ER Forum Cookbook thread...
I guess "catching a falling knife" must never be true. I admire your sense of omnipotence in stock picking.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:30 PM   #132
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And that applies to this discussion...how?
Do you think it's one of those programs that randomly generate pithy sayings? Sayings that appear to be clever or profound on the surface but upon closer examination are found to be nonsensical? This one seems to have a definite financial spin.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:31 PM   #133
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The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of it's forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind, and greed - you mark my words - will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you. Gordon Gekko
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:33 PM   #134
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You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
Hahahaha! Good one! How about <insert cliche #1602>? Isn't that hysterical?
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:36 PM   #135
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The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of it's forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind, and greed - you mark my words - will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you. Gordon Gekko
Hey, wow, generates speeches too! Impressive!

Oh, wait, I think that was lifted from a movie.....
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:37 PM   #136
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I guess "catching a falling knife" must never be true. I admire your sense of omnipotence in stock picking.
Nope, I make mistakes with depressing regularity. I was actually talking about an index portfolio, however.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:41 PM   #137
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Please get a grip. You are wound too tight. Don't take the world seriously, or you surely will get burned.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:47 PM   #138
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Nope, I make mistakes with depressing regularity. I was actually talking about an index portfolio, however.
I am not disagreeing with you at all. I am also for investing for the long term, I hold index funds and some active-managed funds like Wellington and Wellesley. I am not smart enough to be a market timer. My original point was " do not to take the latest bull run as the norm for the future ", there will be corrections and secular bear markets, asset allocation, flexibility and an adequate cushion to ride out the bad time are important.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:56 PM   #139
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My original point was " do not to take the latest bull run as the norm for the future ", there will be corrections and secular bear markets, asset allocation, flexibility and an adequate cushion to ride out the bad time are important.
Sounds reasonable to me.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:08 PM   #140
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Hey, wow, generates speeches too! Impressive!

Oh, wait, I think that was lifted from a movie.....
This program generates quotes for people with no sense of humor.
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