Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-26-2013, 08:01 PM   #121
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,525
Whenever I start taking the doomsters too seriously I remember what this fellow had to say during practically my entire adult life. Granville Says Dow Industrial May Drop Toward 8,000 in 2012 - Bloomberg

If I had paid attention to him I would still be working
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-26-2013, 08:01 PM   #122
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Brett_Cameron's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South Eastern USA
Posts: 1,068
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Are you suggesting my asteroid needs fixing?
The have some good surgeries available, methinks.
Brett_Cameron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:03 PM   #123
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
Ummm, that is why you want to hold other asset classes besides equities, hopefully relatively uncorrelated.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:06 PM   #124
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 61
Here, here!
rembrandt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:08 PM   #125
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Ummm, that is why you want to hold other asset classes besides equities, hopefully relatively uncorrelated.
My comment was not about asset allocation, but to address the point, previously, for some people in the accumulative phase, a bear market may be a buying opportunity, but that is not true for many who are in ER.
bondi688 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:15 PM   #126
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
My comment was not about asset allocation, but to address the point, previously, for some people in the accumulative phase, a bear market may be a buying opportunity, but that is not true for many who are in ER.
The hell it isn't true! Stocks plunge, other stuff in your portfolio stays flattish or actually goes up: buying opportunity! Sell the stuff that did better (on the margin at least) and buy more of what plunged. Voila, buying opportunity for the retired.

Of course, if you don't want to hold a well diversified portfolio you can always check out some of the squirrel recipes I have posted in the ER Forum Cookbook thread...
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:18 PM   #127
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,002
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
I was ER'd in 1999, which meant I got through the dot-com bust, (there was also a 2002 credit crisis which caused the worst of the 2002 bear), 9/11, the 2008 market meltdown and financial crisis, and the recent European panics. Cash is part of my asset allocation, and during those times that some of it was deployed to buy depressed assets. There is no reason that ER folks can't take advantage of buying opportunities.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:19 PM   #128
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
I also took advantage of the big corrections and bought at those times, but that was when I was working. For most people in ER, they do not have free cash waiting on the sideline to put in, and the bear roam is not longer a buying opportunity but a stress test of your reserve. ( Hence that thread of how much cash to hold is useful, so you can ride out the bear market instead of selling in that environment to a Gen Xer, who then boasts how he benefited by buying at a discount.)
I understand completely. I retired in 2005 and 'enjoyed' the stress test of 2008 from the no-longer-have-a-job side. It wasn't pleasant but those of us who had a couple of years of cash, who didn't panic and who didn't sell came through OK.

I'm expecting to hear 'next time will be different', and for all I know it could be. But I'm not willing to bet against history and I plan on maintaining my AA for the foreseeable future. I'm not smart enough to know whether I should zig or zag so I'll hold what I've got - and keep an eye out for asteroids.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:22 PM   #129
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 61
You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
rembrandt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:24 PM   #130
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by rembrandt View Post
You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
And that applies to this discussion...how?
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:26 PM   #131
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
The hell it isn't true! Stocks plunge, other stuff in your portfolio stays flattish or actually goes up: buying opportunity! Sell the stuff that did better (on the margin at least) and buy more of what plunged. Voila, buying opportunity for the retired.

Of course, if you don't want to hold a well diversified portfolio you can always check out some of the squirrel recipes I have posted in the ER Forum Cookbook thread...
I guess "catching a falling knife" must never be true. I admire your sense of omnipotence in stock picking.
bondi688 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:30 PM   #132
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,002
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
And that applies to this discussion...how?
Do you think it's one of those programs that randomly generate pithy sayings? Sayings that appear to be clever or profound on the surface but upon closer examination are found to be nonsensical? This one seems to have a definite financial spin.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:31 PM   #133
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 61
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of it's forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind, and greed - you mark my words - will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you. Gordon Gekko
rembrandt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:33 PM   #134
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by rembrandt View Post
You ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? Because they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.
Hahahaha! Good one! How about <insert cliche #1602>? Isn't that hysterical?
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:36 PM   #135
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,002
Quote:
Originally Posted by rembrandt View Post
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of it's forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind, and greed - you mark my words - will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you. Gordon Gekko
Hey, wow, generates speeches too! Impressive!

Oh, wait, I think that was lifted from a movie.....
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:37 PM   #136
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
I guess "catching a falling knife" must never be true. I admire your sense of omnipotence in stock picking.
Nope, I make mistakes with depressing regularity. I was actually talking about an index portfolio, however.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:41 PM   #137
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 61
Please get a grip. You are wound too tight. Don't take the world seriously, or you surely will get burned.
rembrandt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:47 PM   #138
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Nope, I make mistakes with depressing regularity. I was actually talking about an index portfolio, however.
I am not disagreeing with you at all. I am also for investing for the long term, I hold index funds and some active-managed funds like Wellington and Wellesley. I am not smart enough to be a market timer. My original point was " do not to take the latest bull run as the norm for the future ", there will be corrections and secular bear markets, asset allocation, flexibility and an adequate cushion to ride out the bad time are important.
bondi688 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2013, 08:56 PM   #139
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondi688 View Post
My original point was " do not to take the latest bull run as the norm for the future ", there will be corrections and secular bear markets, asset allocation, flexibility and an adequate cushion to ride out the bad time are important.
Sounds reasonable to me.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Program
Old 01-26-2013, 09:08 PM   #140
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 61
Program

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Hey, wow, generates speeches too! Impressive!

Oh, wait, I think that was lifted from a movie.....
This program generates quotes for people with no sense of humor.
rembrandt is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:32 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.