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Old 05-20-2015, 06:39 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
The LTCM problems were in the fall of 1998. There was a sharp downturn in August 1998 but no recession.

There is a pretty straight line from Bear to LTCM, and the bailout creating incentive for risk. Hell, bear was run by a LTCM investor. I could argue back to laws in the 80's setting it up, but why. My point was you don't always wait for the bridge to smack you in the face.

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Old 05-21-2015, 06:42 AM   #22
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The thing that would worry me in another Great Recession is state and local funding. There are a number of states that are only getting by because the market recovery. Another sharp drop before they can get their house in order could cause problems.

The federal government could always step in with a few trillion though.

This time I am going to buy gold early, even if it looks expensive when it goes up $300 in a few days. I will just get out of it near the top (around $3000 an ounce)

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Old 05-21-2015, 07:11 AM   #23
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But isn't the real question, we would go into another recession why I mean last time one of the biggest issues was the housing and credit crisis which is a different beast.. since most people are conned into thinking their house should be their biggest wealth thus they overleverage themselves into an asset that has no liquidity. The solution depends on the problem, a slowing of the economy has many options to fix.. a credit based problem is a different beast which lowering the interest rate is not an option and another crisis of that sort would be chaos.

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