Could we be nearing the end of the R/E crisis?

[sarahsays]

Also, some economists say the mortgage bailout plan in Congress will just make things worse.
Many Problems with Mortgage Bailouts

"Critics, including some in Congress, say the rescue plan rewards reckless behavior and transfers risk to homeowners and lenders who were responsible during the housing boom."

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by fmhealth In the past week, the following has happened: 1- My brother sold his home on LI after being on the market for 11 months. 2- My friend sold their home after 5 months on the market. 3- My daughter sold her home, now listen to this. In CLEVELAND ( the epicenter of real estate devastation !). House went up in August of '07. All went for prices far below the original asking price. But they all sold. Now this obviously is not a representative sample. Although I'd be hard-pressed to remember when three houses owned by folks I know have sold in rapid succession. Simply some andecdotal observations that may possibly be the harbinger of the easing in the R/E market. I certainly hope that this is the case! FMH

fmhealth I'll have to give you credit for calling the return of the RE market!! Goodtimes for everybody.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 22, 2008NEW U.S. MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX ESTIMATES 0.6 PERCENT PRICE INCREASE BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY


Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

[honobob]

In addition to the surf report:

The price of condominiums on Maui rose in the first quarter of 2008, according to a new report from Prudential Locations.
The median price of condominiums rose 6.2 percent to $587,000 in the first quarter of 2008, Prudential Locations said Monday. Most sales took place in the Wailea/Makena and Kihei areas. Prices in those communities appreciated 56.4 percent and 21.7 percent, respectively.
Condo sales were down 0.7 percent, with 276 sales in the first quarter of 2008, compared with 278 in the same period a year ago.

Sales down though, two less than last year. The horror!

Maybe we could have a benefit luau?

[tryan]

Quote:

The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels -- reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day --

The foreclosure rate should crest in about a year ... then the real fun begins. As bank REOs attempt to fetch what's left from very tired buyers in an economy with much less liquidity.

L.A. Land : Los Angeles Times : California foreclosure "surge": Up 327% from '07 levels

[Rambler]

At the peak in about spring of last year, the value of the home we will sell had grown at a CAGR of 8.25% for 13.5 years. As it stands today, the CAGR would be about 7% at 14.5 years. I don't expect the prices to drop much more, and we won't be selling for at least 4 more years. I paid it off about 3 years after purchase by LBYM lifestyle when I sold some other real estate. If I sold it today, it would still be a respectable if not fantastic return...and that is on an investment that you can also live in. So, I'm not in crisis mode.

The folks who are in crisis mode are those who bought in 2005-2006 (and perhaps as early as 2004) at inflated prices and subprime rates that are now inflating, and who must sell. Others in crisis mode may be those who bought earlier, but refi'd and pulled out equity with a subprime. Some of this is stupidity, and some of this is gullibility on the part of the homeowner, and some of this is what I would consider to be predatory business practices by some of our banks and lenders.

Best advice, I think for most people, would be to just hunker down and ride out the storm. Sunny skies will come again, but I hope our regulators don't allow stupidity in lending to prevail again.

R

[eridanus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 22, 2008NEW U.S. MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX ESTIMATES 0.6 PERCENT PRICE INCREASE BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

Read past the headline.

[deserat]

Well, our house is going on the market here in a couple of weeks to a month - we live in northern CA. However, I bought in 2000 and frankly even with the lower prices now, I will have made a nice, tidy profit if/when it sells. I'm not greedy and laughed at some of the prices around me last year and the year before. Rambler is right - if one bought in 2005-2007, they will be in a world of hurt.

[Bestwifeever]

I just heard last week on some radio talk show a university professor who teaches "emotional finance" discussing that in a sellers' market, houses are priced a few percentage points over what the sellers hope to make, because they know there could be a bidding war. But in a buyers' market, sellers tend to price their house much HIGHER to allow room to come down a lot. Then the houses sit on the market because buyers prefer not to bid as low as those houses are actually worth.

[growing_older]

Some real estate guys are trying to talk me into buying properties. Prices have dropped but are now stabilizing. That may be, but it looks to me that inventory is growing rapidly at these new stable prices. Either buyers start to come back since prices are holding or sellers are going to have to drop prices again if they want anything to move. I can drive down streets with for sale signs on every block (often multiples). I have no idea what might happen next, but I don't feel comfortable betting much on it.

[P.S.]

Housing Woes Force Some Families to Split Up : NPR
Foreclosures Keep Locksmiths in High Demand : NPR