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Could we be nearing the end of the R/E crisis?
Old 04-21-2008, 08:13 PM   #1
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Could we be nearing the end of the R/E crisis?

In the past week, the following has happened:

1- My brother sold his home on LI after being on the market for 11 months.

2- My friend sold their home after 5 months on the market.

3- My daughter sold her home, now listen to this. In CLEVELAND ( the epicenter of real estate devastation !). House went up in August of '07.

All went for prices far below the original asking price. But they all sold. Now this obviously is not a representative sample. Although I'd be hard-pressed to remember when three houses owned by folks I know have sold in rapid succession. Simply some andecdotal observations that may possibly be the harbinger of the easing in the R/E market.

I certainly hope that this is the case!

FMH
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Old 04-21-2008, 08:25 PM   #2
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Everything sells at a price.

I sold my house on LI, Nov. of 06. I started at 725K and sold for 570K, just wanted out and that's what it took to do it.
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Old 04-21-2008, 08:30 PM   #3
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I don't think it is the end of the real estate crisis, but it is nice to know that some houses are selling! The house next door to me sold, too, after being on the market over a year. Got a higher price than I thought they would, too. The others for sale on my block are still sitting there as they have been for some time.
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Old 04-21-2008, 08:33 PM   #4
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There's a real estate crisis?
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Old 04-21-2008, 08:51 PM   #5
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Just for the sellers.
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Old 04-21-2008, 09:31 PM   #6
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The fire sales will gradually go away. Then you'll have a lot of people (like me) sitting in their houses who would like to sell and have lowered their price expectations somewhat , but don't absolutely have to sell & aren't going to take a bath either.

This is why I'm opposed to the idea I've heard proposed of giving a 7K tax-credit for people buying "new homes" - (this was originally targeted to be only for homes in foreclosure - but "somebody" is trying to slip new homes into the program also)

This will esentially give the developers/builders an advantage over existing home sellers & further depresses the prices of existing homes.
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Old 04-21-2008, 09:43 PM   #7
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There's a real estate crisis?
Exactly. From even a 5 year perspective in most all areas, real estate has been a tremendous investment.
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Old 04-21-2008, 10:27 PM   #8
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There's a real estate crisis?

OK... when I say the thread title.... I already KNEW what I was going to put down...

"Real estate crisis, what real estate crisis.... just ask Hono"....

BUT>>> he beat me to it!!!!

Way to go Hono
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Old 04-21-2008, 10:38 PM   #9
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Any property will sell in any market at the market price. There is no crisis. Those sellers who think there is a crisis are simply asking too much.
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Old 04-21-2008, 10:52 PM   #10
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How long did the last real estate bust last, from '89 to '95? Then real estate was considered a safe but boring investment compared to stocks from '95 to '01, so those who bought before the boom are still on sitting on some sizable gains. It's only builders who built in the last bit of frenzy and the people who bought near the top that are having problems, and nothing sells as well as bad news. No, hobnob didn't hijack my account, but eventually people will have to move for jobs, start new families, or just upgrade to something better than a crappy apartment. The problem is that eventually could still be a couple of years away.
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Old 04-21-2008, 11:01 PM   #11
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Any property will sell in any market at the market price. There is no crisis. Those sellers who think there is a crisis are simply asking too much.
But it's YOUR HOUSE!

Hee hee... just kidding. But there does seem to be something more painful about selling your house for less than expected than selling equities at a loss. Based on the asking price of a similar home to mine currently on the market (and not selling), I'm guessing my house is down roughly $25k from peak. That just kills me. Yet I've lost $25k on stocks or funds numerous times and just shrugged it off and lived to play on.

Some special karma about YOUR HOUSE I guess.......
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Old 04-21-2008, 11:07 PM   #12
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Houses always are selling. They did during the last dump, and even though this one is orders of magnitude larger, yes, houses still sell! How else do you think the prices are going down? Not by magic, it takes transactions to set the new (lower) prices. Same as for the stock market.

Beyond that, I think there's a little blip here. Many seem to be happy to catch a falling knife and are buying this spring. But if you look at the macro numbers it's worse than dismal.

And Cleveland center of the RE bubble? Pleeze ...
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Old 04-21-2008, 11:13 PM   #13
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Just for the sellers.
...and the real estate brokers and agents.
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Old 04-21-2008, 11:22 PM   #14
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OK... when I say the thread title.... I already KNEW what I was going to put down...

"Real estate crisis, what real estate crisis.... just ask Hono"....

BUT>>> he beat me to it!!!!

Way to go Hono
But Texas, you want to base your crisis on asking price vs. no sales price yet and office sub-leases that can't be identified because you believe that there are $85 leases that are being whored out at $20 but no one knows the location except YOU. All my resales have been based on 16% increases on addresses I've supplied that are verified online. I've offered reports of Utah, Colorado, CA. HI etc. of +++gains and studies that have said SF has earned compounded appreciation rates of at least 2.1% over any city in the US over the last 60 years.

[vulgarity deleted]?
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Old 04-21-2008, 11:23 PM   #15
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Any property will sell in any market at the market price. There is no crisis. Those sellers who think there is a crisis are simply asking too much.
[expletive deleted by moderators]!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:14 AM   #16
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But Texas, you want to base your crisis on asking price vs. no sales price yet and office sub-leases that can't be identified because you believe that there are $85 leases that are being whored out at $20 but no one knows the location except YOU. All my resales have been based on 16% increases on addresses I've supplied that are verified online. I've offered reports of Utah, Colorado, CA. HI etc. of +++gains and studies that have said SF has earned compounded appreciation rates of at least 2.1% over any city in the US over the last 60 years.

[expletive deleted]

4!!!!

yep.... only I know where it is... not a problem... but just to clarify the 'all in' is $85... we do have to pay the OPEX... the actually 'lease rate' was (IIRC) in the mid $60s.... the leases were as low as $17 when you considered the free rent period... the 'stated' rate was higher... and we also had to do some TI payments... but if you are not paying for a year.... well.... cheap rent...

SOOOO, what was SF office space leasing for before the dot com bust? What were some of the last buildings built there? (before bust)... heck, I don't know that market well, but I do know that only one of the locations we exited that we did not need a reserve...

This does not give home prices... this is commercial....

But home prices are coming down... how many signs do I see with 'price reduced' etc.... and them on the market for many many months (and one was on for over a year and has been taken off... but sits empty)...

As someone said.... location location location.... but I would say (and this is from thin air), about 90% of homes have 'lost value' over the last year... so for the MAJORITY of the country.... it is bad...

But if you wish to be like Bush and say everything is GREAT... go right ahead... keep playing while the ship sinks...
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Old 04-22-2008, 02:26 AM   #17
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It is not the end of the crisis, nor the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning. -WC
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Old 04-22-2008, 07:14 AM   #18
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It is all very local. DW and I went to a bunch of open houses on Capitol Hill a week ago and were surprised at how high the prices were. Doesn't mean much to us since we won't be selling for decades, if ever. But my son is itching to upgrade so he is interested.
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Old 04-22-2008, 08:31 AM   #19
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Could easily be a seasonal thing. Lots of people buy in the spring/summer, not so many in the winter.
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Old 04-22-2008, 08:57 AM   #20
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It is all very local. DW and I went to a bunch of open houses on Capitol Hill a week ago and were surprised at how high the prices were. Doesn't mean much to us since we won't be selling for decades, if ever. But my son is itching to upgrade so he is interested.
Agreed, condos in my neighborhood (Dupont/Adams Morgan) are still selling at high prices, even higher than what I paid when I bought in July '06!

It's all about where you live and managing expectations.
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