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Counterpoint to gloom & doom
Old 07-13-2010, 04:48 PM   #1
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Counterpoint to gloom & doom

You pessimists might not want to read this.

Quote:
The U.S. economy is experiencing "a slowdown, not a meltdown" and won't suffer a ‘double-dip' recession, according to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.
She acknowledges a long list of negatives facing the economy but says there are
Quote:
...a number of positive trends that aren't getting enough attention and suggest GDP will remain in positive territory, even if growth is muted.
See this link for a list of 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'

One more thing:
Quote:
...it's worth noting that Sonders called the start of the recession in late 2007 and its end in June 2009; both calls went against the grain of prevailing conventional wisdom at the time and (surprise surprise), both proved prescient.
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:08 PM   #2
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Didn't read it. All I need to know is that Intel stock is up more than 7% in after-hours trading after their earnings announcement. It's 1999 all over again!
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:09 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You pessimists might not want to read this.

She acknowledges a long list of negatives facing the economy but says there are See this link for a list of 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'

One more thing:
I don't know what she said, but I sure liked the way that she said it...
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:15 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You pessimists might not want to read this.

She acknowledges a long list of negatives facing the economy but says there are See this link for a list of 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'

One more thing:
Whatthellareyoudoinganyway, ReW, trying to cheer us up? What's wrong with you?
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:17 PM   #5
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Whatthellareyoudoinganyway, ReW, trying to cheer us up? What's wrong with you?
Trolling? Me?
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:47 PM   #6
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Here's some more counterpoint:

Nygren: Bears Need More Imagination

Quote:
The S&P 500 fell 11% in the quarter, despite the continuing recovery in corporate earnings. The S&P now stands at about 11 times next year’s $93 consensus estimate of net income from operations, and it yields 2.2%. At the Morningstar conference last month, I kept telling skeptical attendees that I was bullish because it is so rare to be able to buy the S&P at three-quarters of its long-term average P/E and with a yield that is more than a five-year government bond.
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:05 PM   #7
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For what it's worth the WSJ is quoting S&P 500 Forward estimated PE at 13.11 as of July 9th. Trailing PE is quoted at 18.07. The S&P 500 dividend yield is 2.05%.

It goes without saying that those PE stats will change as the markets advance/correct and as companies boost or cut dividends/earnings.
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:09 PM   #8
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I haven't heard much about "the money sitting on the sidelines" lately. Anybody see a recent figure? For that matter, does anybody know how such an estimate is done?
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:32 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You pessimists might not want to read this.
I like what she has to say but I would rather have a picture of her.
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:53 PM   #10
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I would rather have a picture of her.
OK...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg liz-ann.jpg (3.6 KB, 256 views)
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Old 07-13-2010, 07:05 PM   #11
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OK...
Better..
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Old 07-13-2010, 07:41 PM   #12
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I haven't heard much about "the money sitting on the sidelines" lately. Anybody see a recent figure? For that matter, does anybody know how such an estimate is done?
Unfortunately, that money has been sitting on the sidelines for years and probably will sit there much longer. Stocks are "out of fashion" right now. People who have been burned since 2000 are very, very gun shy (mixed metaphor).

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Old 07-13-2010, 07:44 PM   #13
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Yeah, my boss has been trying to check out Liz Ann at Schwab meetings gain some insight from her commentary for years.
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Old 07-13-2010, 08:28 PM   #14
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I haven't heard much about "the money sitting on the sidelines" lately. Anybody see a recent figure? For that matter, does anybody know how such an estimate is done?
Ask me, I'm a typical guy. I had to exercise most of my former mega-corp options in June and have about 30% of NW in cash (don't know where/when to put it to work).
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Old 07-13-2010, 09:05 PM   #15
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Unfortunately, that money has been sitting on the sidelines for years and probably will sit there much longer. Stocks are "out of fashion" right now. People who have been burned since 2000 are very, very gun shy (mixed metaphor).

Audrey
I wonder if this starts to qualify for the "be greedy when everybody else is fearful" statement this timing business is sooo difficult...
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Old 07-13-2010, 09:51 PM   #16
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I wonder if this starts to qualify for the "be greedy when everybody else is fearful" statement this timing business is sooo difficult...
That was Oct/Nov 2008 and March 2009....
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Old 07-13-2010, 09:59 PM   #17
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Those were good times to buy. But people are still fearful today, and I am still greedy
PS. 76% equity as we speak.
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:09 PM   #18
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Those were good times to buy. But people are still fearful today, and I am still greedy
PS. 76% equity as we speak.
I know, I know! Me too, and all the market does is go up, and up, and up lately. Maybe later.
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:12 PM   #19
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PS. 76% equity as we speak.
psst.... whatchagot?
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:14 PM   #20
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Those were good times to buy. But people are still fearful today, and I am still greedy
PS. 76% equity as we speak.
The pervasive fear, doom and gloom is encouraging to the contrarian in me. But still - it is far from "blood in the streets" which are the best times to by.

I just rebalance my portfolio occasionally when it gets out of whack....

Audrey
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