CPI, bald faced lies

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 08:46 AM

I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.

Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.

**ziggy29** · 03-14-2008, 09:00 AM

Whatever they are smoking, I want some.

Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison.

Midpack · 03-14-2008, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn

I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.

Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.

Which month and column are you referring to?

freebird5825 · 03-14-2008, 09:17 AM

in their dreams, maybe...

Notmuchlonger · 03-14-2008, 09:28 AM

Its one month of numbers big deal. Put away the tin foil hats.

cute fuzzy bunny · 03-14-2008, 09:32 AM

Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.

I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack

Which month and column are you referring to?

This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM.

There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either.
What a joke.

**ziggy29** · 03-14-2008, 09:35 AM

What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell.

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.

I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.

Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real.
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell.

I don't get it either. Wall Street is drinking the koolaide, unlike Main Street.

As far as Wall Street, did you watch Bear Sterns this morning. Up $10 on the news is was about to go under (who the hell was buying on that news), then down 50%. The koolaide drinking is out of control.

Midpack · 03-14-2008, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn

This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM.

There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either.
What a joke.

You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at your past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). I gather you're referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. Sounds like you're thinking about Feb to Mar, which appears it will be a different story. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.

US Gas Prices.bmp

cute fuzzy bunny · 03-14-2008, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn

Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real.
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!

Yep, it is almost free in the CPI model. The CPI model presumes a worker who has their health care costs largely paid by their employer.

Even in the CPI-E (elderly) health care costs are presumed to be absorbed somewhat by medicare, but it does account for increased out of pocket expenses due to age.

Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.

My frickin toy budget skyrocketed 498% in the last month.

**ziggy29** · 03-14-2008, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.

See, that's the thing. It may well be true that "discretionary" big-ticket items have fallen in price due to decreased demand, but that's because everything else is so damn high that a lot of people can't afford that big screen TV or new car because they're spending everything filling the gas tank, heating the home and keeping food on the table.

What they really need is a CPI-MC for the middle class, one that reflects a typical budget and recognizes that when prices of the essentials is very high, discretionary "stuff" is weighted less to account for the fact that fewer people can afford it.

Marquette · 03-14-2008, 09:52 AM

I'll get you some better percentages later...

For my CPI-P:

Health care is down against last month but up 10% over last year

Gas is down and trending down faster (employing new driving style)

Food is up horribly but that's from moving the hedonic scale up (eating out multiple times a week)

Energy is even

It's not like the calculation for CPI is a mystery. And, it's based on polling real people. Do you think they're putting some ringers in the mix? Maybe you don't like their component weighting?

I didn't look hard, but this doc shows the weighting by category:

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2006.pdf

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack

You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). Your referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers I gather, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.

Attachment 3394

I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers.

Notmuchlonger · 03-14-2008, 09:56 AM

Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.

**ziggy29** · 03-14-2008, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger

Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.

But they claim that the OVERALL rate (which includes food and energy) is also unchanged. If you only said the "core" rate was unchanged, I could believe it. But you can't drive to w*rk or eat the core rate.

RockOn · 03-14-2008, 09:58 AM

They are stealing from us through COLA's. Even the standard deduction on our taxes.

barbarus · 03-14-2008, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack

I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.

Midpack, do you think the CPI accurately reflects the real cost-of-living for the average American?

Notmuchlonger · 03-14-2008, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

But they claim that the OVERALL rate (which includes food and energy) is also unchanged. If you only said the "core" rate was unchanged, I could believe it. But you can't drive to w*rk or eat the core rate.

Why is it so hard to believe for 1 month it was unchanged?

03-14-2008, 08:46 AM	#1
RockOn Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 798	CPI, bald faced lies I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead. Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.

03-14-2008, 09:00 AM	#2
ziggy29 Moderator Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Texas Hill Country Posts: 2,404	Whatever they are smoking, I want some. Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison. __________________ FIRE Clock: 11:26 PM. FIREd at midnight but very subject to change.... waiting for the government to privatize the gains and socialize my losses in my 401K...

03-14-2008, 09:17 AM	#4
freebird5825 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: 42N Latitude, NY Posts: 1,300	in their dreams, maybe... __________________ *Freebird* Go placidly among the noise and haste and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant; they too have their story.

03-14-2008, 09:28 AM	#5
Notmuchlonger Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,992	Its one month of numbers big deal. Put away the tin foil hats. __________________ Call the troops out in a hurry. This is what we've waited for. This is it boys, this is war.

03-14-2008, 09:32 AM	#6
cute fuzzy bunny Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Losing my whump Posts: 22,527	Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to. I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on. __________________ Many an optimist has become rich by buying out a pessimist

03-14-2008, 09:35 AM	#8
ziggy29 Moderator Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Texas Hill Country Posts: 2,404	What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell. __________________ FIRE Clock: 11:26 PM. FIREd at midnight but very subject to change.... waiting for the government to privatize the gains and socialize my losses in my 401K...

03-14-2008, 09:52 AM	#14
Marquette Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,020	I'll get you some better percentages later... For my CPI-P: Health care is down against last month but up 10% over last year Gas is down and trending down faster (employing new driving style) Food is up horribly but that's from moving the hedonic scale up (eating out multiple times a week) Energy is even It's not like the calculation for CPI is a mystery. And, it's based on polling real people. Do you think they're putting some ringers in the mix? Maybe you don't like their component weighting? I didn't look hard, but this doc shows the weighting by category: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2006.pdf

03-14-2008, 09:56 AM	#16
Notmuchlonger Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,992	Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate. __________________ Call the troops out in a hurry. This is what we've waited for. This is it boys, this is war.

03-14-2008, 09:58 AM	#18
RockOn Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 798	They are stealing from us through COLA's. Even the standard deduction on our taxes.