CPI, bald faced lies

[RockOn]

I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.

Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.

[ziggy29]

Whatever they are smoking, I want some.

Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison.

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 Whatever they are smoking, I want some. Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison.

it's not cooking the books, it's seasonally adjusted. the press release just hypes whatever numbers they want.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead. Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.

Which month and column are you referring to?

[freebird5825]

in their dreams, maybe...

[Notmuchlonger]

Its one month of numbers big deal. Put away the tin foil hats.

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack Which month and column are you referring to?

This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM.

There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either.
What a joke.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM. There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either. What a joke.

You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at your past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). I gather you're referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. Sounds like you're thinking about Feb to Mar, which appears it will be a different story. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.

US Gas Prices.bmp

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). Your referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers I gather, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege. Attachment 3394

I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers.

[Notmuchlonger]

Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.

[Marquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers.

CPI just came out for Feb. When I look at that graph from MidPack, it looks like gas is lower for much of Feb than Jan. That tells me that the Feb gas numbers should be lower than the Jan ones... which would be in line with your opening statement about CPI

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marquette CPI just came out for Feb. When I look at that graph from MidPack, it looks like gas is lower for much of Feb than Jan. That tells me that the Feb gas numbers should be lower than the Jan ones... which would be in line with your opening statement about CPI

Did you pay less at your pump? I didn't.

I give up, I need another cup of coffee to settle down. This is such BS.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers.

Where on earth are you getting 18% (don't bother to answer)?

Look at the CPI data again. For Transportation Motor Fuel:

Jan to Feb: -2.0% (this is the number you based your "action" on). Note that it's the change for one month, Jan to Feb 08.
Dec to Jan: +1.2%
Nov to Dec: +2.8%

And look at what "they" are reporting for CPI Transportation Motor Fuel Feb 07 to Feb 08 +32.7%.

Still think they're 'cooking the books', 'drinking the Koolaide,' etc.?

Again, a little data to support your POV would be nice.

You have the last word, I'm done with this thread...

Emotion is the enemy of rational argument.

[barbarus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.

Midpack, do you think the CPI accurately reflects the real cost-of-living for the average American?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not

Gas around here went up 40c in the last month.

Using the same metric over a longer time frame...seems the last 5 years have produced a little more price pop in fuel than a 2.x-3.x% number would account for. Of course its only one of many pieces in the pie.

[freebird5825]

sorry if this is a repeat, but my reply disappeared into the ether.

for your groaning pleasure...
see Gas Prices - MSN Autos
and punch in your zip code.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.

I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to. I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.

Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real.
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real. Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!

Yep, it is almost free in the CPI model. The CPI model presumes a worker who has their health care costs largely paid by their employer.

Even in the CPI-E (elderly) health care costs are presumed to be absorbed somewhat by medicare, but it does account for increased out of pocket expenses due to age.

Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.

My frickin toy budget skyrocketed 498% in the last month.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.

See, that's the thing. It may well be true that "discretionary" big-ticket items have fallen in price due to decreased demand, but that's because everything else is so damn high that a lot of people can't afford that big screen TV or new car because they're spending everything filling the gas tank, heating the home and keeping food on the table.

What they really need is a CPI-MC for the middle class, one that reflects a typical budget and recognizes that when prices of the essentials is very high, discretionary "stuff" is weighted less to account for the fact that fewer people can afford it.