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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 02:00 PM   #21
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Is there anyone who did worse than Cramer??* *

Maybe we should all make our fortune selling investment advice to gullible lemmings the masses.*
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 02:26 PM   #22
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
Is there anyone who did worse than Cramer??* *

Maybe we should all make our fortune selling investment advice to gullible lemmings the masses.*
I may have not done worse, but same ballpark! For all the talk on this board about 4 pillars and "being the market, not beating it" we have a lot of people beating the market's socks off! Are all of you high flyers energy investors, REITs or what?
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 02:34 PM   #23
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

My allocation... index ETFs and funds
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 02:46 PM   #24
 
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

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Originally Posted by Laurence
I may have not done worse, but same ballpark!* For all the talk on this board about 4 pillars and "being the market, not beating it" we have a lot of people beating the market's socks off!* Are all of you high flyers energy investors, REITs or what?*
This may be what I call the 'Las Vegas' syndrome. Have you ever talked to anyone that actually lost in Vegas? They all win! - I often wonder how those Casino's stay in business.

The big gainers here are obviously taking more risk. There may be some that did a lot worse, but they may not admit to it, as this beating the market is an ego thing as well. I admit I do not have any special skills to beat the market. Hence I index.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 05:44 PM   #25
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
I may have not done worse, but same ballpark!* For all the talk on this board about 4 pillars and "being the market, not beating it" we have a lot of people beating the market's socks off!* Are all of you high flyers energy investors, REITs or what?*
A broadly diversified portfolio would have beaten the S&P 500 this year.* Small and mid-cap (especially mid-caps) did well again.* REITS are up strongly as are most international stocks.*

I have a 60 / 40 stock / fixed income allocation with a very high % of cash and have thus far beaten the S&P 500, albeit marginally.* I think most people who are quoting 5-6% YTD returns are probably in the same camp having benefited from being "overweight" smaller capitalization stocks, international stocks, REITS and commodities (judging from other comments on the board).* This seems pretty consistent with a well diversified, 4 pillars, approach.

Cut-throat has a point too.* We probably won't hear from the individual stock picker who is down 10% on the year .
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 06:41 PM   #26
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

I tried to be orthodox 4 pillars, with a little "value heretic" action. Still, best case I'm up 4%. I think I suffer from high expenses since I'm stuck with what the 401(k)'s will give me. Now if I include the matching I'm up close to 8%, but that's just cheating.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 08:01 PM   #27
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

7.6% year-to-date for non-cash (i.e. excluding bank, CD, etc) type investments including dividends and unrealized capital gains. Probably closer to 5-6% when including cash. As was mentioned by another poster, I am Canadian as well and the Canadian component helped raise what would have been mediocre US and International market returns.

I believe in being diversified and representative of the equity market, with about 1/3rd each in Canada, USA and International.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Return
Old 11-13-2005, 08:37 PM   #28
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Re: Cramer's YTD Return

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Are all of you high fliers energy investors, REITs or what?
Small cap, value, international, commodities tilting compared to the S&P. Maybe higher risk, I don't know.

If the S&P dividend were at its historic norm of 4%, I would probably just go with the balanced index fund. I don't know what to make of the historically low S&P dividend. Thus the added diversification, plus a few other adaptations in an attempt to mitigate the potential risk of unprecedented S&P yield.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 08:55 PM   #29
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Another facet of these numbers is that some may just be quoting a different thing than YTD return.

For example, when I run MS Money 2002 for a YTD calculation of all accounts (stocks, funds, cash), I get a "% Rate of Return" of 5% and an "Annual % Return" of 8.4% and I can fudge the dates to be the last 12 months and get a "% Rate of Return" of 7.6% or "Annual % Return" of 10.4%.

Or I can simply divide value of asset today by value of assets on 1/1/2005 ... in that case I'm up 18.5% ... not bad on a 7-figure portfolio ... but that would be cheating, or would it?
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 09:09 PM   #30
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

The only valid calculation is:

value of portfolio - (beginning balance on 1/1/05 + all subsequent investments) divided by (beginning balance on 1/1/05 + all subsequent investments).
e.g.,

value of portfolio= $110,000
beginning balance=$100,000
re-invested dividends = $1,000
additional investments = $2,000

total invested=100,000+3,000=103,000
YTD = (110,000 - 103,000)/103,000
YTD = 6.8%


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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 09:21 PM   #31
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

1/3 each Tiaa-cref Real Estate, Vanguard Total US Stock, Vanguard Total International stock - and don't have any idea what my return was this year. Cheap and boring. I've been to Las Vegas once - made my $100 back by the time I left, mostly in nickles. No gain after flight, hotel, meals, my wifes losses.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-13-2005, 09:37 PM   #32
 
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
The only valid calculation is:

value of portfolio - (beginning balance on 1/1/05 + all subsequent investments) divided by (beginning balance on 1/1/05 + all subsequent investments).
e.g.,

value of portfolio= $110,000
beginning balance=$100,000
re-invested dividends = $1,000
additional investments = $2,000

total invested=100,000+3,000=103,000
YTD = (110,000 - 103,000)/103,000
YTD = 6.8%


It's a lot more complicated than that!* - For example if you got a bonus of $10,000 in Nov. and invested it.

value of portfolio= $120,000
beginning balance=$100,000
re-invested dividends = $1,000
additional investments = $12,000


total invested=100,000+13,000=113,000
YTD = (120,000 - 113,000)/113,000
YTD = 5.38% and all you changed was a deposit last week of 10 grand, and by your calculation your return was lower!

However your biggest mistake was not realizing that the $1,000 of dividends was also = to 1% return of the portfoilo* but you counted it as new money invested!, just like savings

value of portfolio= $110,000
beginning balance=$100,000
re-invested dividends = $1,000
additional investments = $2,000

total invested=100,000+2,000=102,000
YTD = (110,000 - 102,000)/102,000
YTD = 7.84% is closer to your real return, without taking in consideration of the time of new investment money added this year.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 10:17 AM   #33
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

I'm with Unclemick and Cut-Throat on this one. I'm not good enough to beat the market and don't know how I've done this year. I just checked Vanguard and couldn't find a YTD number, but the Oct 04 - Oct 05 was 10% or so.

I call what I do indexing, although a lot of my money is in Wellington and LifeStrategy Moderate Growth.

I have no long-term money in ED or MM type accounts; I'm probably moving to ED for a pile of money that I have a fair likelyhood of needing to draw from over the next year, but there's still a few hundred dollars more I'll make if I get the money out of my credit union and into a 4% account.

Congrats to those who are doing so well.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 11:51 AM   #34
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Half my portfolio is in one mutual fund, agthx, and it is up 12.5% year to date (1/1/05-11/11/05). The other half is spread around all kinds of other diversified holdings (taxable and 401k/IRA's). The other half would take too long to determine the percent return, but I'm sure it is above zero by a good bit. Assuming it is zero, that would still give me a 6% return or so, estimated conservatively.

Of course, I wouldn't have posted here if I underperformed most major indexes.

Maybe Cramer isn't a very good investor...
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:10 PM   #35
 
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

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Half my portfolio is in one mutual fund, agthx, and it is up 12.5% year to date (1/1/05-11/11/05).

I looked up your mutual fund and I got a couple different numbers than 12.5% - But the most shocking thing to me is this fund has a front end load of 5.75%

Can you tell us, why you would want to be in a fund like that? Also how did you compute 12.5%?* - This diagram says that it is up 6.8% so far.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:23 PM   #36
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

I get AGTHX up about 9% YTD. If you go from 1/1/2005 instead of 12/31/2004 you get a boost of a couple of percent because the stock market went down the first trading day of this year. Also in Nov 2005, the stock market has gone up a few percent, so if you go only to 10/31/2005 instead of 11/11/2005 will trim your return YTD as well.

This thread shows to me that it's pretty easy to manipulate numbers without intentional meaning to manipulate numbers.

Anyways AGTHX has clearly beaten the pants off of VFINX this year.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:40 PM   #37
 
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

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Anyways AGTHX has clearly beaten the pants off of VFINX this year.
It has to beat it by 5.75% just to stay even with VFINX for all new money entering the fund this year!

AGTHX also has a .25% 12b1 Fee!
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:43 PM   #38
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat

I looked up your mutual fund and I got a couple different numbers than 12.5% - But the most shocking thing to me is this fund has a front end load of 5.75%

Can you tell us, why you would want to be in a fund like that? Also how did you compute 12.5%? - This diagram says that it is up 6.8% so far.
Thanks for pointing this out so that I may clarify.

I incorrectly queried the weekly closing prices on Yahoo Finance and got the Jan 7 closing price of $26.60 instead of the first closing price of the year, which is the Jan 3 closing price of $27.09. Friday's close had a price of $29.93. I did this calculation: $29.93/$26.60 = 12.5%. I should have used $27.09 in the denominator to get this equation: $29.93/$27.09 = 10.5%. So, my actual return YTD on this fund is 10.5%. I still stand by my 6% overall return as a conservative guess of where my portfolio is YTD.

I didn't realize that agthx had dropped ~2% during the first week of January - That is why my YTD returns were 2% too high.

In regards to why own this - long story. I didn't pay the 5.75% front end sales charge. I believe the load for me was 3.5% since I benefited from a load break point for accounts with values of $100,000 or more. I bought this before my intellectual enlightment re: the benefits of indexing and super-low expense ratio mutual funds. I've been in this particular fund for over 7 years, adding money along the way. In hindsight, it has done well for me, beating the SP500 by a small margin. At the time, I didn't know any better. I just went to my Edward Jones guy and bought what I knew. I was (am?) young and uninformed.

Just so you can sleep at night, CT, I'm working on building my Vanguard index portfolio right now. I've sworn off the agthx for now.
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:49 PM   #39
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

As usual, your returns are mostly a function of what asset classes and sectors you're in.

This year, if you were in broad US stocks and bonds, you probably saw 3-5% YTD.

International is up closer to 10% (and emerging markets are up about 20%).

Energy is up 35%.

Health care is up 11%.

Real estate is up 10%.

Precious metals are up 30%.

Next year will probably be different.

Vanguard has a listing of their funds by asset class, including returns:

Vanguard
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun
Old 11-14-2005, 12:52 PM   #40
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Re: Cramer's YTD Retrun

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
It has to beat it by 5.75% just to stay even with VFINX for all new money entering the fund this year!

AGTHX also has a .25% 12b1 Fee!
Just so you can understand the rationalization I went through to justify paying a high front end load, I'll explain. I looked at the load I'd pay as being spread over 10 years. For me, that was 0.35% per year. At the time, I thought it wasn't a lot of money. Same thing regarding the 0.25% 12b1 fee. On small amounts, these don't seem like much. As my account balance grew and I read four pillars and Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds, I started seeing the light. A few hundred dollars here, a few thousand dollars there. Compound that over 10, 20 or 40 years, and you're talking a huge amount of money to have a full service brokerage account. I also found the "full service" less convenient. There was no internet based account where I could manage my funds. Vanguard's online features were a big selling point for me. I can now transact business at night or on the weekend when my broker wouldn't be in the office. I don't have to call every month to place an order - it is all automated and can be changed at my whim.

I learned a lot from lurking at this site that helped me streamline my investing approach. I'm now saving time and money on my investments. Thanks to all those posting here.
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