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Old 10-31-2007, 09:51 PM   #21
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I've never understood this argument - wouldn't it be in the best interests of OPEC (and other oil rich nations) to say "Ok-we're at peak oil now. Everyone's doomed."

Oil would mushroom to $200/barrel, Saudi Arabia would be the richest nation on earth, and oil nations would be rolling in dough.
They would plunge the entire world into an economic depression, and they know it. A higher margin does little good if almost no one can afford what you are selling.

That would also send the entire world into massive development of alternatives on the scale of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Program, cost be damned, to permanently dry up demand for their products. Not good business.
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Old 10-31-2007, 11:38 PM   #22
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It's almost midnight CST, and the December oil future on the Nymex is at $95.725. Wow.
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Old 10-31-2007, 11:57 PM   #23
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workers would not be able to get to work with 10+ dollar a gallon gasoline.

In addition you would see fuel cell vehicles and cars running on something other than gasoline so oil would become well obsolete.
If gas were $10 a gallon, you believe people would stop going to work? Really? They wouldn't, maybe, carpool or take public transportation? The fuel cost is a relatively small part of the cost of car ownership for most people.

Oil will be obsolete once we convert our airliners and trucks to coal. Or vewwy lightweight battawees . . .

Expensive oil will hurt the economy, no doubt, but lets keep things in perspective..
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Old 10-31-2007, 11:59 PM   #24
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More! More!

Do I hear $100?

How about a pool? Will it cross in December '07? Dec '08? '09?

I may be in the market for a Chev 454.
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Old 11-01-2007, 12:43 AM   #25
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Oil will be obsolete once we convert our airliners and trucks to coal. Or vewwy lightweight battawees . . .
I wish there were a way to take side bets on this forum. I've seen this sort of statement for the past 4 years; so far it has been wrong. IMO it will always be wrong. Alternates will be developed over time, and oil may one day be saved for high value uses such as feedstocks for petrochemicals.

But even nuclear fusion would not make oil obsolete, and fusion does not seem to be on the horizon.

Ha
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Old 11-01-2007, 06:27 AM   #26
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If gas were $10 a gallon, you believe people would stop going to work? Really? They wouldn't, maybe, carpool or take public transportation? The fuel cost is a relatively small part of the cost of car ownership for most people.
I don't know if this is happening elsewhere, but lately the parking lot at my work is sprouting Priuses at at pretty rapid rate, and we probably have a dozen or more van pools. It seems like many/most people who used to drive SUV's from the North Shore now drive a Prius or ride in a van pool. They do not seem especially distressed about either option. The gas mileages that I am hearing about with these Priuses are utterly amazing. I think they are cute (so sue me! ) and I would think of getting one except that I only fill my gas tank every six weeks or so.

Others, like me, live just a mile or two from work. I doubt I would think twice about rising gas prices, though at some point I might be inspired to look for a route by which I could safely walk or bicycle to work.

I doubt anybody would stop coming to work due to rising gas prices. At some point ($1000/gallon? certainly much higher than $10/gallon) most would probably just move closer in and bicycle to work. Sales of bicycles, helmets, and other biking gear would rise. The parish would probably pay to re-stripe the streets in order to allow for more bike lanes. Businesses near work would thrive. Rising gas prices could stimulate the local economy in the long run. Ah, brave new world!
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:04 AM   #27
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The media is out to lunch here with the price issues, did you see 60 mins last week? Leslie stall asks the Prez of France about his divorce! after he said weeks ago he would not speak about it in public again!! He walked out! Good for him. The american media circus is a national joke. Americans who live in the colder parts of the country and heat with oil will be paying 40 to 60% more this year to heat their homes. Heating oil is selling in the 3 dollar a gallon range today, that is almost 1.25 more than last year. Not good,the Fed is clueless here, cut the interest rate? Inflation is here, I was at the store yesterday a can of Mushrooms the small can was 1.19 it comes from Indonesia the Krogers label stems and pieces the cheap kind! You would think we would have canned mushrooms grown here in the states!!!This is the kind of stuff that is happening how much energy does it cost to bring a can of mushrooms to north carolina from indonesia? AND WHY WOULD ANY BUYER BUY IT These cans were selling at .69 cents the ones that come from kennet square pa!!

Get a bike people, we are gonna be like the chinese, yea right can you see the fat american on a bike?

Oh yea people will move closer to work, hummm if they cannot sell their house, cannot get rid of the upside down suv loan how are they gonna do those things?

I would love to see the president make a speech where he says thats it america oil is done a new manhattan project new railroads coal alternative energy fuel cells etc and that middle eastern oil is going the way of west texas crude AWAY, ALL USED UP sooner than later. 10 years to be off the stuff. Lets see the price of things then.
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:23 AM   #28
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Get a bike people, we are gonna be like the chinese, yea right can you see the fat american on a bike?
Sure! Most of the people at my work are fat due to cubicle life, and most have joined a gym. The few exceptions seem to be the naturally skinny people. Fat and skinny alike seem to enjoy walking during lunch or breaks and using the stairs. I think many would ride a bike to work if they had a little incentive and a safe bike lane.

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Oh yea people will move closer to work, hummm if they cannot sell their house, cannot get rid of the upside down suv loan how are they gonna do those things?
At my work many have already switched from their SUVs to Prius's or other cars with good gas mileage, or take the van pools. I have not heard anyone complaining about their old SUV loans.

After Katrina, there was a migration towards the North Shore (30-50 miles from work, to areas that did not flood), and prices went up there. If migration proceeded in the opposite direction, home prices would go down on the North Shore and up on the South Shore. Trends like this happen from time to time and people just adjust and go on with life because that is what they have to do. They don't quit work unless there is a better opportunity elsewhere. There might be more telecommuting.
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:45 AM   #29
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People are really starting to feel the pinch now. Yesterday I had lunch with an ex-coworker. He drives a big Chevy "dually" pickup about 70 miles round trip to work every day and he heats with oil. He's starting to look for something a little more economical for the daily commute.

Right now he must be using 4 to 5 gallons every day just to ride to work, by himself. That's $12-$15 a day. That's gotta hurt.
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:49 AM   #30
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I wish there were a way to take side bets on this forum. I've seen this sort of statement for the past 4 years; so far it has been wrong. IMO it will always be wrong. Alternates will be developed over time, and oil may one day be saved for high value uses such as feedstocks for petrochemicals.

But even nuclear fusion would not make oil obsolete, and fusion does not seem to be on the horizon.

Ha
Agreed. For example, why on earth has the feddle gummint not jump started development on a commercial scale coal to liquids plant? A few billion dollars in subsidies is peanuts for uncle sam, an this is one of teh more promising alternatives for motor fuel.
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:53 AM   #31
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Agreed. For example, why on earth has the feddle gummint not jump started development on a commercial scale coal to liquids plant? A few billion dollars in subsidies is peanuts for uncle sam, an this is one of teh more promising alternatives for motor fuel.
Alternative Energy is a top federal priority right now (but please don't remind me of work! ). Systems to extract wind energy seem to be especially attractive and the wheels are presently turning to put large Alternative Energy systems in place. Regulations are being completed and environmental impact statements are being put together. It will take a few years for results, since the federal government is not noted for their speed in making changes.

Here's one example that is pretty far along, and that you have probably heard of already: Cape Wind - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is just the beginning and the federal effort extends on many fronts.
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Old 11-01-2007, 08:05 AM   #32
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I know hindsight is 20-20, but wouldn't the US have been better served by spending the money that we're "wasting" in Iraq on development of alternative fuels and technologies? Or taken that money and subsidized the use of solar (or something like that). Our current administration seems to believe in letting the market figure things out on it's own, but in the mean time we're fighting a war in a part of the world that all we honestly care about is whether we can get oil out of it. Why not put a huge amount of our money and energy in the US into attempting to become energy independent?

I just spent a month in Italy and was amazed at all of the smallish cars there. I drive a compact car here in the US that gets about 30mpg at the highest...it seems downright huge compared to the majority of the cars in Italy. I actually feel as though I should be driving something more energy efficient now. I feel no sympathy when I see someone pull up next to me at the gas station with a big SUV to fill up and have to pay an arm and a leg for gas...people actually don't NEED a big SUV. In the long run, it's probably a good thing that oil prices are rising...it will eventually force many people to drive more efficient vehicles. Also, perhaps the car companies that market cars will actually sell a non-hybrid car in the US that gets close to 45-50 mpg. Currently you can only get that kind of mileage by buying a hybrid which are overpriced in my opinion. I guess the market eventually figures things out on it's own...it just takes longer.
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Old 11-01-2007, 08:40 AM   #33
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Administrative Assistant at my office makes about $28,000/year. She lives in an older doublewide Mobile Home 35 miles from Raleigh on land her Grandmother gave her. She drives a 10 year old paid for car that she says gets about 25-28 mpg. For people like that, you better believe that the gas prices will hurt. No way can she afford to live in Raleigh with rent prices in the $600 & up range for apartments and homes starting at $200,000. But if she were to find work closer to home she would be making $15,000/yr full-time. There are a LOT of people out there just like her who are not going to be buying many gifts for Christmas this year.

For those making $50,000 and up or those who live near work gas prices are not going to mean much, for those that are not, well they will cut out other things which is gonna hurt all of us.
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Old 11-01-2007, 08:43 AM   #34
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Administrative Assistant at my office makes about $28,000/year. She lives in an older doublewide Mobile Home 35 miles from Raleigh on land her Grandmother gave her. She drives a 10 year old paid for car that she says gets about 25-28 mpg. For people like that, you better believe that the gas prices will hurt. No way can she afford to live in Raleigh with rent prices in the $600 & up range for apartments and homes starting at $200,000. But if she were to find work closer to home she would be making $15,000/yr full-time. There are a LOT of people out there just like her who are not going to be buying many gifts for Christmas this year.

For those making $50,000 and up or those who live near work gas prices are not going to mean much, for those that are not, well they will cut out other things which is gonna hurt all of us.
If you have traveled much you just might realize that your friend is better off than most of the worlds population. Many would look at your friend as being "rich"
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:11 AM   #35
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If you have traveled much you just might realize that your friend is better off than most of the worlds population. Many would look at your friend as being "rich"
Actually, I have traveled extensively in 3rd world countries and realize this without any doubt, though I doubt she does.

My point was really that you must look at the oil prices from the point of view from someone like her who is already "struggling" when saying that it is not going to make much difference. To someone like that gas is already probably 10-15% of her take home pay and if it goes up to $5.00/gallon it will be almost unmanageable. There are many more people barely making ends meet than those seriously planning ER.
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:21 AM   #36
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The gas prices are bad but you can always drive less .What can you do about the home heating cost ? A lot of us live in areas that are warm and don't realize how high oil prices affect our neighbors up north . Their utility bills will go sky high .
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:22 AM   #37
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Administrative Assistant at my office makes about $28,000/year. She lives in an older doublewide Mobile Home 35 miles from Raleigh on land her Grandmother gave her. She drives a 10 year old paid for car that she says gets about 25-28 mpg. For people like that, you better believe that the gas prices will hurt. No way can she afford to live in Raleigh with rent prices in the $600 & up range for apartments and homes starting at $200,000. But if she were to find work closer to home she would be making $15,000/yr full-time. There are a LOT of people out there just like her who are not going to be buying many gifts for Christmas this year.

For those making $50,000 and up or those who live near work gas prices are not going to mean much, for those that are not, well they will cut out other things which is gonna hurt all of us.
I take it that van pools have not yet caught on in your area? Some of our administrative assistants own condos near work, and others own houses further out. In the event of drastically rising gas prices, I can't imagine that Christmas gifts would be axed rather than joining one of the many van pools that already exist going to and from the outlying areas.
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:33 AM   #38
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I take it that van pools have not yet caught on in your area? Some of our administrative assistants own condos near work, and others own houses further out. In the event of drastically rising gas prices, I can't imagine that Christmas gifts would be axed rather than joining one of the many van pools that already exist going to and from the outlying areas.
We do have van pools which I personally checked into for myself I live also about 35 or so miles from the city (though different direction from her or we could carpool) and it was going to be $125/month to join the pool then I would have to keep a second car at the central drop off location to get to my office. The city bus system is not very extensive here in Raleigh. Just not feasible nor would it save much/any money. Raleigh has been fighting about getting light rail here but we are so spread out that it is just not practical.

I don't see how someone on a $28,000 salary could buy a $160,000 condo in Raleigh. Cheapest you could find in a safe area. Plus they would still need transportation. It's a difficult problem with no real easy answers.

As far as heating oil goes I am just thankful I need heat very little down here in the South!
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Old 11-01-2007, 10:13 AM   #39
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I guess people are just a lot more self-reliant down here in New Orleans! Or maybe living in the deep South is a lot easier financially than living up where you are. For some reason, administrative assistants don't expect to live in the best neighborhoods down here. People here claim that they are actually making money from the van pools, not spending it, due to government programs, tax credits, and so on. If they weren't, they'd work out private carpools and pay 1/5 as much that way.

Whether private carpool or van pool, the whole point is for people to get dropped off at their work, not miles away. At least that is what all those that I know have arranged.
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Old 11-01-2007, 10:45 AM   #40
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For some reason, administrative assistants don't expect to live in the best neighborhoods down here.
This girl is now living in a 20 year old doublewide mobile home.... I seriously doubt that she is expecting to live in the lap of luxury. I also doubt that she would make it long in a neighborhood she could afford on her salary. I am talking about someone that probably brings home $1400/month remember. There are not a lot of decent condos sitting around for sale for less than $100,000 which is what I figure would be her upper limit. In fact I would dare say that there are NONE in Raleigh for that price in even the sketchiest of neighborhoods. A 1 bedroom condo in a DECENT not too scary neighborhood starts at around $160,000.

I guess a lot of our perspective probably comes down to the area around us and what we see. Here in Raleigh the housing market is booming, prices going up and "poor" people are being pushed to the edge.
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