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Old 07-26-2015, 01:12 PM   #21
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My benchmarks are A) Do I have enough money and B) Am I sleeping well. Not "Which would have left me with more money at this moment... timing or B&H?
Thanks for the reply, razztazz. I actually use the same benchmarks. Everyone's situation is different. I have nothing against
buy/hold/forget, but for me, it would never work (if most of my retirement funds were handled that way). And yes, I am well aware of the influence of inflation over time, so please folks, no lectures about that. I'm simply looking for opinions here on where you think the markets may be headed over the next few months, or next year. If you have no opinion on that, or don't care (because you plan to buy/hold for the next 30 years), that's fine........I respect your choice. It's just not a choice I am comfortable with, at this stage of my life. As I said, I do not want to engage in a debate on the merits of market timing.
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Old 07-26-2015, 01:16 PM   #22
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As I said, I do not want to engage in a debate on the merits of market timing.
10-4, no debating on the merits of market timing as a general strategy. However, to answer your following question, it has to be mentioned as something that one is either doing or not doing personally so I am gingerly mentioning it and trying not to tread on any toes.
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I am relatively light in my exposure to the market at this time, so I'm not contemplating any major changes, but I'm interested in what everyone else is thinking right now. Thanks.
Personally I feel I have been a reasonably successful investor, but I am quite aware of the fact that I can't time the market successfully. So, I don't try. I have a tiny Roth IRA (about half of 1% of my portfolio) that I use to satisfy my market timing urges. I allow myself to gamble with that and stick to my financial plan for the rest of my investing. Using that tiny Roth IRA I have proven to myself time and again that I am the absolute worst market timer in the universe. So, I don't do it with my other accounts.

I haven't made any major changes, other than drastically lowering my cash buffer temporarily to buy my dream house in cash. However, my old house is under contract so when it sells, I'll get some of that back. Other than that, I have a written financial plan including asset allocation, and I stick to that because that is what has worked best for me, time and again, in the past.

As for what I am thinking, well, I think that the market has been awfully good for an awfully long time. Eventually it is going to crash hard again. It always does eventually and my guess is that it will be soon. Despite all the jokes about my "Wheee!" post back in October, 2007, I have no clue as to when this will happen. (Just don't tell anybody! )
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Old 07-26-2015, 01:25 PM   #23
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It'll be interesting to see how people fared this year in the 2015 YTD performance thread.

If I haven't met an untimely demise, I'll be there with bells on.
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Old 07-26-2015, 02:26 PM   #24
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Using that tiny Roth IRA I have proven to myself time and again that I am the absolute worst market timer in the universe. So, I don't do it with my other accounts.
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Old 07-26-2015, 03:02 PM   #25
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I've found this to be helpful for predicting market directions, but it may not be for everybody:
Welcome to Ask 8-Ball, The Ultimate Online Oracle
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Old 07-26-2015, 06:19 PM   #26
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....I got out in late 2000 and back in, in April or 2003. Also, out in late 2007 and back in, in Summer 2008. .....
If you got back in during the summer of 2008, how did you feel about your decision in early 2009?

S&P 500 index was 1,267 on July 1, 2008 (summer of 2008) and 735 on Feb 1, 2009? a 42% decline.
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Old 07-26-2015, 07:12 PM   #27
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I think the market will drop a lot, but then I've been expecting this for about 2 years.... thankfully I have kept my stock allocation maxed out.

Its quite possible it will generally be flat for years, instead of a drop, because everyone seems to jump in and buy when it goes down 5%.

I do have a reserve of cash, to buy some broad based etf's should prices tank, but its only about 2-4% of assets, so no big bet here.


In the meantime, I'm playing with a measly 10K, and when a stock drops I buy options (in IRA) and when the stock goes up $4 I sold the options.
Now I should have waited as the stock kept going up, so I could have made more than 16%.
Good news is the stock is headed down again, so I am hopeful I can repeat the exercise
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Old 07-26-2015, 07:51 PM   #28
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Who me? Perhaps you didn't not get it. Nothing I did had any more luck involved with it that buy and hold.







Ha ha. Thanks for the tip, professor. Rim shot!

No, not talking to you, didn't even read your post. Maybe you're not the focal point of others thoughts.


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Old 07-26-2015, 10:22 PM   #29
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I got out last week. still have a few stocks and mf's, but I don't like what I see in the earnings, forecasts, and overseas markets. This strong dollar doesn't look like it will weaken anytime soon, and my expectation is that the market will react even more negatively in the immediate future. dropping oil prices also concern me. I did have a fairly good run so far this year, but I am getting concerned about capital preservation.
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Old 07-26-2015, 10:41 PM   #30
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If we get a decline it should not be too severe because the yield curve is quite steep I.e. not likely to be a recession. I would guess a decline of 10% max. Valuations are high but not at nose bleed level like in 2000. But I would not be surprised at a having a decent year. How is that for hedging?
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Old 07-26-2015, 11:02 PM   #31
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Its quite possible it will generally be flat for years, instead of a drop, because everyone seems to jump in and buy when it goes down 5%.
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Old 07-27-2015, 06:46 AM   #32
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My guess is the market will go down 8-10% within 12 months and then come back up. But like most retirees, I am not betting on it.
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Old 07-27-2015, 08:30 AM   #33
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Markets will do great for people with plan and ability to stick with it.
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Old 07-27-2015, 06:59 PM   #34
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I am presently still invested 50% equities as I have been since my last change at S&P500 2020. I am very much underweight oils & energy MLP's as I sold them off towards the end of the year in anticipation of a very bad market year for these companies, which I have commented on in several threads. While much better values than 8 months ago, they are not quite where I would be interested in them.

Central banks have begun to lose control of markets as a couple of the major pieces they put in motions - investment in commodity production has resulted in prices that do not support the present level of debt many of these companies hold. The response to this point has been to double down on financing these companies, and so as long as they can continue to procure long term debt in excess of 15 years for less than 2% the collapse of some of these companies will not occur. However this is also keeping commodity production levels very high which just increases the pressure on the companies and will ultimately pressure their debt without price relief.

So what happens? The central banks of the world need commodity prices to stop falling, if China was to go into a major slump, the central banks will be unsuccessful and ultimately there will be major pain in the US and Europe. If China, which is using up all their financial reserves by directly buying stocks to support the market, can mitigate the issues we will continue to limp along and maybe even ignite a major bull move. However the idea that low commodity prices will provide a headwind to economies is being proved as wrong as GDP has been falling from initial estimates from before the drop in oil prices not increasing as should have been the case. If commodity prices reverse the US stock market should strengthen and old Yeller will lift rates 1/4 percent by year end.

The biggest risk is a continued collapse in commodity prices which will ultimately lead to a major debt default which causes a panic in markets and large unpredicted drops from which none will have the ability to react. This will also destroy the reputations of central bankers as being able to manage things and panic would be the rule of the day.


As for debts Japan cannot possibly pay theirs, Greece cannot pay theirs and Russia is probably not too far behind. At the corporate level BHP Biliton is unable to pay their debts at present commodity prices as is Conoco and several other very large companies.

Overall, there is considerable risk the market could have a very sharp drop, but I am not sure enough to sell half of my equities which would be my move if I believed with conviction we were vastly overpriced. Instead I see a fairly priced stock market with an overblown debt market that could implode if reflation cannot happen. This situation is very similar to the housing situation in 2007, with the exception that the Central Banks are far more aware of the risks of continued price drops in the area of concern and the next level of interaction from the price fall is actually at the producer level and not the consumer level, which probably means a more drawn out issue.
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Old 07-27-2015, 08:29 PM   #35
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Currently at 90/10 in the accumulation phase so this actually works out well for me (~25 years to retirement).
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Old 07-27-2015, 10:10 PM   #36
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Stocks look toppy. Historically the year before a presidential election year is rarely a good one for equities. I rebalanced by selling stock during the spring. If things look grim enough the Fed will crank QE back up.
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Old 07-27-2015, 10:16 PM   #37
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I've noticed some folks here talking about getting 'out' of equites completely based on what they're hearing/seeing... I don't know how easily they are doing that. For me, the capital gains I would face if I tried to do this would be huge, to the tune of mid six figures. If I somehow, magically, had the good fortune to know for sure that the market will crash by, say 20%, I'd do it, no question. But for me, without having that crystal ball it makes more sense to stick with an allocation model through thick and thin. I may add sectors that are undervalued, and shave some off of sectors that are overvalued, but more or less, I'm all in. My main 'sleep well at night' plan is always holding about 18+ months of living expenses in cash, which can also be used as dry powder when such a drop occurs.
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Old 07-27-2015, 10:47 PM   #38
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I've noticed some folks here talking about getting 'out' of equites completely based on what they're hearing/seeing... I don't know how easily they are doing that. For me, the capital gains I would face if I tried to do this would be huge, to the tune of mid six figures. If I somehow, magically, had the good fortune to know for sure that the market will crash by, say 20%, I'd do it, no question. But for me, without having that crystal ball it makes more sense to stick with an allocation model through thick and thin. I may add sectors that are undervalued, and shave some off of sectors that are overvalued, but more or less, I'm all in. My main 'sleep well at night' plan is always holding about 18+ months of living expenses in cash, which can also be used as dry powder when such a drop occurs.
Unfortunately I cracked my crystal ball, so I will hold onto my stocks for the ride.
I do have some cash to pick up deals if things go south.
And I have cash to use for spending expenses.

These are 2 separate amounts, as a single amount cannot do both jobs
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Old 07-27-2015, 11:14 PM   #39
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I'm not sure I would get out of my taxable equities even if I knew for certain a 20% drop was imminent. Particularly since 20% drops (and recoveries) seem to happen with great regularity. Between fed cap gain tax and Oregon's high tax rate it wouldn't take much to get a 30-35 % tax haircut if I were to sell all my taxable equities. On the other hand If I knew for certain a 75% drop is about to happen...
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Old 07-28-2015, 12:33 AM   #40
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Thanks to all my life being 100% in equities we currently get dividend yield which easily
covers all our expenses. Hence we could care less if market goes 30% down or up.

Good luck market timers!
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