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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 12:03 PM   #21
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by P.S.
Comps in his neighborhood have recently sold for $1.2 m, so he's listing his house and and notes that either he'll buy again when prices drop, or the profit can pay for the next 20 years of rent.
I think that's the way to go right now.
I read recently that retiring and still working Ca. folks are cashing out and moving to other states where they can get something more reasonable (in their eyes). What I did in 94. There are 3 other ex-Cal families in my neighborhood - we came for that reason and also a great place to raise a family. Even here in Minnesota where values are high, but not crazy high, we are thinking of selling and renting now that the kids are close to being on their own.
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 12:30 PM   #22
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Yep, the Californians are moving out and causing housing prices to go up here too. Too much money chasing too few houses. Every square foot of land seems to be under construction now and building material and labor are also in short supply so building costs are going up more than exisiting home prices.

I think an other factor that will be starting very soon, as the Baby Boomers start retiring, is the move to smaller homes. That will create a glut of bigger houses that cannot be sold and those values will have to come down while the smaller home prices will go up due to demand. It will be an upside down market.
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 01:08 PM   #23
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

I just sold my rental unit (1200 sf condo for $94000) in NC to a Californian. The guy also bought 2 more units at a different place here in NC. He's sending his $$ to a different, lower-priced state for some reason. Wonder why? He probably couldn't even buy a driveway for a house in CA for $94000.

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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 01:09 PM   #24
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR
I think an other factor that will be starting very soon, as the Baby Boomers start retiring, is the move to smaller homes. That will create a glut of bigger houses that cannot be sold and those values will have to come down while the smaller home prices will go up due to demand. It will be an upside down market.
I tend to agree. I'm going to go small soon and will rent - there is a move to downtown loft and condo craze going on now - so I don't want to buy into that.

But your location is key.

When you live in a top rated school district, in a place where taxpayers always vote yes on school referendums and accept higher property taxes because they want the services they get, in an attractive well cared for neighborhood of reasonably sized and valued homes and there are starter families desperate to move from the city with not so good schools - you will have demand.
There has still been a market for the really expensive homes in our area, but they sell slow. When a Californian shows up (think of kids in Willy Wonka movie), take it from me, they realize that Minnesota winters are not going to be as bad as they've been told - heck they always wanted to live in a place with 4 seasons - although they soon enough find out that winter is 6+ months long - but then there are planes to take you to other places
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 07:24 PM   #25
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Under FIRE
Folks,

When buyers need to throw-in dressed-up babies in bug shirts plus drag the DW/DH/Grandma to solicit a seller's pity * then we have, indeed, come to the end of this housing mania.
Why have we come to the end of the mania?* Sounds like there are still plenty of people willing to pay exhorbitant prices.* These people needed something to separate them from the 50 other bidders and the baby happened to be the thing that made the sellers remember them.* How does that mean the bubble is at an end?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Under FIRE
The smart(er) ones would have seen the iceberg by now and are jumping ship with bags of cash in hand while there are still lifeboats.* :P
They're only the smarter ones if this happens to be the top of the bubble.* If it continues to inflate, they left cash on the table and are not so smart . . . .
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 07:30 PM   #26
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
They're only the smarter ones if this happens to be the top of the bubble.* If it continues to inflate, they left cash on the table and are not so smart . . . .
This is always the case, and it is why success in speculating is more a test of one's character than of his intelligence.

ha
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 07:44 PM   #27
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Many of investing's wise old sages opine that it's better to sell early than late.
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-18-2005, 09:03 PM   #28
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

I'm in So Cal and my house appreciated to a crazy level in such a short time that there wasn't any time to react - at* least at my pace of doing things.

I told myself jokingly that if my house got to 600K, I'd sell and FIRE - 600k was a ridiculous thought 2 years ago, and now it exceeded that.

I've heard of families selling a couple years ago and renting out while waiting for a crash - now they are in a sad state renting, where rental prices are going crazy now. I equate that to shorting the housing market on margin (margin being the rent). And as funny as it was in 1999 with everyone talking of tech stocks, now it's the housing market.

Anyway, if the market remains as it is through the next sell season (March 2006) - I think I must sell and FIRE.* Otherwise, I'm happy to stay here. Nice thing here is property taxes are fixed with Prop 13 and utilities year round are: gas bill is $18/month electric $60/month (no need for heating or AC at all) - helps the budget out.
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 12:35 AM   #29
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR
Yep, the Californians are moving out and causing housing prices to go up here too. Too much money chasing too few houses.
I've seen this in Alaska, Washington, Idaho, and Oregon for years. This phenomonon is referred to as 'Californication' (there used to be a bumper sticker that said "don't Californicate Oregon") They are buying up waterfront vacation houses in Alaska and bidding the prices up to where locals can't afford them to actually live in. Strangely enough for the biggest state, there isn't much private land available in Alaska--it's all in government hands. I figure it will be a good place to live as global warming progresses. Go ahead and bake in Texas and New Mexico.

We had a real estate bubble pop in Alaska in the late 80s. It was oil driven, and when it popped, it was ugly. $125,000 'zero-lots' (like a duplex only 2 titles) were going for $40k. Now you would never know it had happened. Craziness prevails once again--but compared to California, I guess it resembles sanity.

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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 01:35 AM   #30
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
I've seen this in Alaska, Washington, Idaho, and Oregon for years.* This phenomonon is referred to as 'Californication' (there used to be a bumper sticker that said "don't Californicate Oregon")* They are buying up waterfront vacation houses in Alaska and bidding the prices up to where locals can't afford them to actually live in.
When Hawaii prices started to rise in 2001 we blamed it on all the Silicon Valley millionaires cashing out for island vacation homes...
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 06:01 AM   #31
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by dimwit
I'm in So Cal and my house appreciated to a crazy level in such a short time that there wasn't any time to react - at* least at my pace of doing things.

I told myself jokingly that if my house got to 600K, I'd sell and FIRE - 600k was a ridiculous thought 2 years ago, and now it exceeded that.

I've heard of families selling a couple years ago and renting out while waiting for a crash - now they are in a sad state renting, where rental prices are going crazy now. I equate that to shorting the housing market on margin (margin being the rent). And as funny as it was in 1999 with everyone talking of tech stocks, now it's the housing market.

Anyway, if the market remains as it is through the next sell season (March 2006) - I think I must sell and FIRE.* Otherwise, I'm happy to stay here. Nice thing here is property taxes are fixed with Prop 13 and utilities year round are: gas bill is $18/month electric $60/month (no need for heating or AC at all) - helps the budget out.
Those are interesting numbers on the utilities. We average well under $100
per month (combined - 1100 SF) unless we get a severe cold snap or prolonged
hot weather (90+).

JG
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 06:41 AM   #32
 
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

I read many of the messages, but not all.* Apologies in advance if someone else has posted this link.* NYTimes registration may be required.

Housing Goes Frothy to Flat in Denver Area

PARKER, Colo., July 12 - Tom Woods, a 37-year-old defense industry consultant, wanted to build a nest egg for one of his young sons' college tuition. Inspired by rising prices for homes in this Denver suburb, three years ago he invested in a new three-bedroom townhouse for $155,000. His hopes were that renters would cover most of his mortgage and that the property's value would appreciate by at least $10,000 a year.

But last October, when Mr. Woods put the townhouse up for sale to help pay some unforeseen medical bills, there was more pain than gain: the house sat on the market for eight months. He finally found a buyer in June, but to seal the deal he had to make big concessions, including paying the buyer's closing costs. After handing over the keys on Friday, he ended up with a profit of just $10,000 for his three-year investment...
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 09:31 AM   #33
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by dimwit
I'm in So Cal and my house appreciated to a crazy level in such a short time that there wasn't any time to react - at* least at my pace of doing things.

I told myself jokingly that if my house got to 600K, I'd sell and FIRE - 600k was a ridiculous thought 2 years ago, and now it exceeded that.

I've heard of families selling a couple years ago and renting out while waiting for a crash - now they are in a sad state renting, where rental prices are going crazy now. I equate that to shorting the housing market on margin (margin being the rent). And as funny as it was in 1999 with everyone talking of tech stocks, now it's the housing market.

Anyway, if the market remains as it is through the next sell season (March 2006) - I think I must sell and FIRE.* Otherwise, I'm happy to stay here. Nice thing here is property taxes are fixed with Prop 13 and utilities year round are: gas bill is $18/month electric $60/month (no need for heating or AC at all) - helps the budget out.
Dim: The fact that you need no A/C or heating, tells me you are living in coastal So. Calif. The $600,000 figure, indicates you have a modest, comfortable home.

In my opinion, if you are planning on selling to move to the mid-west, or whatever area you can find that will duplicate your house in the $100,000 or so range, what will you really gain by selling your house? As you stated, you are protected by prop 13 in the tax area.

I'm making an assumption that you are married with children, and intend on staying in the area.
(Hell, if you're single, what are you waiting for?
There are many interesting possibilities in that case for housing possibilities. )

In any case, you have my permission to live your life in any way you choose.

Regards, Jarhead


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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 09:53 AM   #34
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

New Home Construction Unchanged in June

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050719/economy.html?.v=7

The Western Region had a 10% decline in new construction. Has the bubble just burst? Or are builders reacting to a reduction in demand at this price level? Maybe the bubble will deflate.
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 03:09 PM   #35
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

And the beat goes on...

"Bearish analysts say the state's housing market can not maintain its torrid rate of home price appreciation and expect it to at least plateau. Bullish analysts counter California's population is growing rapidly amid a persistent shortage of housing, which will add upward pressure to home prices."

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsAr...&srch=sf+homes
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 03:59 PM   #36
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

People don't care about the cost of a house, they care about the payment. So long as lenders keep coming up with creative ways to lend, like interest only, negative amortization (sorry T-Al!)etc. to keep payments down, the market can go up. But aren't they out of ways to sneak a low payment?
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 07:29 PM   #37
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
* But aren't they out of ways to sneak a low payment?*
Absolutely not. The creative mind can come up with ideas forever.
Ten years ago the nothing down/ interest only/no points
conventional mortgage was unheard of. MY prediction...............
you ain't seen nothin' yet..........

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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......
Old 07-19-2005, 07:39 PM   #38
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Re: Da Bubble's Burstin' ......

I would like to see the rerun of the 1977 offers of $5000 up front cash pocket money, zero cost to move in, just start your monthly payments.

Of course - these were new houses in large developments.
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