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David Rosenberg on WealthTrack
Old 11-14-2011, 05:20 AM   #1
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David Rosenberg on WealthTrack

He has been the chief economist for several financial service companies.

He presents his opinion on US (and Global) debt and the deleveraging that is occurring.

He is one of the economist that uses the "D" word.

WealthTrack's Channel - YouTube


The European Debt Crisis... he labels it for what it is, a Financial Shock. MFGlobal was the fifth largest failure. It shows how Euroland can reach across the pond. He notes that there might be others (no one knows yet).... just like the meltdown, a crisis exposes weaknesses.

He noted that it is easy to look at the political theater and get lulled into a thinking it is being handled. Maybe it is being dealt with.... but is it over? He comments about lag between the event and the economic impact of the event.

He thinks 2012 has an increased chance of economic decline.

He also cites studies (I know of one by Mckinsey ) that shows how long it has taken in the past to recover for similar events. According to the Mckinsey report on average 6 to 7 years.... maybe a total of 10 years of economic instability.

McKinsey & Company - Report Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences - January 2010
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:25 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco View Post

He thinks 2012 has an increased chance of economic decline.
As I was reading this I popped over to CNBC to see the market futures and Warren Buffet was being interviewed. He pointed out that everything points at improvement except housing which he thought would turn around by now and admitted he was wrong about. But he added that unlike Japan and some others the US continues to add households every day and eventually housing will turn around joining the business trends. When it does he predicts things will pop up. But he wasn't ready to say when that will happen given his early unfounded exuberance.
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Old 11-14-2011, 09:35 AM   #3
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Chinaco,

Thank you for this link. I try to catch Wealthtrack which is on at 6 on Saturday in upstate NY on PBS, but I keep forgetting it.

So, I used your link and kept stopping the video, pushed it back, re-played it, more than once.....

My answer is I don't know. My personal situation is much better than this but I see the downside pull. (I am an attorney for children and I am paid by the state, which is in hard times. But I will be paid and I am paid through the ****, but the state has been changing its accounting and processes many times.)

So it is hard for me to say. My grandmother was forever touched by people looking to her for help with food circa 1930 something. Then, my grandfather was a supervisor in the railroads that were very active here. She made sandwiches ahead of time, because people came to the door. Stories told for generations.

My situation might be close. The state recently said at a conference that when you work for children you should have someone in the room with you when you meet with the children. I did not advertise hiring someone. I talked to two neighbors. I have seen a lot from this experience.

So, I am still not sure but it seems very hard in the places that do not get media attention. I'm in upstate NY.

Kate
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Old 11-14-2011, 11:01 AM   #4
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Rosenberg has been a bear for a while now & seems to be part of the Shiller/Roubini camp. I love Buffet but I wonder, at times, if he is optimistic to the point of trying to help out the current administration. I'd like to hear Munger's perspective. I think he would tell it like it is w/no strings attached.

The Bears won so I'm feeling quite optimistic today.
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Old 11-14-2011, 11:11 AM   #5
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Like Warren Buffet, I remain optimistic. And will do so until I am proven right (however long that takes!)
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Old 11-14-2011, 05:55 PM   #6
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For me the problem is that these learned opinions do not point to a natural investment direction. Do you try to find a consensus? How much of what they say is built into pricing? Shiller, Gross, El-Ehrian, Buffet, Roubini, etc. etc. Makes my head spin. Could loose some sleep too.

It's no way to run a portfolio. But makes for fascinating entertainment.
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Old 11-15-2011, 10:06 AM   #7
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Dallas FED president Richard Fisher was on Kudlow last night. While he doesn't seem overly optimistic, he seems to think US banks are fairly well insulated. This was seconded by Dick Bove, a bank analyst, who was the next guest.

I still think there's a lot o' doodoo out there, and I'm still 35% stock funds...
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Old 11-15-2011, 10:45 AM   #8
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Dallas FED president Richard Fisher was on Kudlow last night. While he doesn't seem overly optimistic, he seems to think US banks are fairly well insulated. This was seconded by Dick Bove, a bank analyst, who was the next guest.

I still think there's a lot o' doodoo out there, and I'm still 35% stock funds...
I saw it. I posted the link on the SF Fed discussion thread.

Obviously no one knows.

But, the papers and the interviews with (legitimate) economist seem to provide some insight into the problem, issues, and things to consider (as a retiree and investor).
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Old 11-15-2011, 10:57 AM   #9
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After watching Rosenberg, he suggested this:

Buy 3-4 year corporate bonds, US Treasuries he likes but doesn't love anymore.

Some funds that spring to my mind for corporate bond exposure are DODIX, PTTRX, or VBMFX.
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Old 11-15-2011, 02:22 PM   #10
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I've heard a couple of people on Bloomberg radio suggest that sooner or later the US will have to go back to some kind of gold standard. That would cause gold to soar even higher.

Of course, I have no clue who they were or if they are crazy, so I'm not running out to buy gold. I still like solid municipal bonds and dividend paying stocks.
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Old 11-15-2011, 05:02 PM   #11
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all the babies (75 million) born in the Echo Boom 1982-1994 will have to move out someday--no generation has ever lived all their lives with mom and dad...add the immigrants and that will be one large block of folks shopping for a place to live..whether they rent or own...this will increase demand for housing. Right now that population bubble is in dorms and living over the garage....that will change and all will be better.
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