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View Poll Results: How does your level of concern now compare with the previous drop?
I am more concerned now than I was then. 119 76.28%
My level of concern is about the same. 23 14.74%
I am not as concerned now as I was then. 9 5.77%
I just can't answer a poll such as this, or I don't understand the poll, or I have issues with the definition of "concern", or my situation is too complex and doesn't fit into these three choices for some reason. 1 0.64%
I just don't remember. 4 2.56%
Voters: 156. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-13-2008, 04:27 PM   #41
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I am at the giddy phase. Told my husband I was going to buy 2000 shares of GM when it passed through $1.
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Old 11-13-2008, 05:33 PM   #42
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Way more concerned today. Although DH was retired then, I was making too much money and retirement wasn't something I even thought about. Now I'm retired, consulting 3 days a week and considering full retirement.
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Worse scenario but better prepared...
Old 11-13-2008, 06:06 PM   #43
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Worse scenario but better prepared...

<delurk - long time since last post>

I voted "I am not as concerned now as I was then." While the overall situation is worse, -we- are a little better prepared this time around.

2000-2003 went like this:
DH moved us from 100% cash to 100% invested 3/20/2000 (ouch!)
Over 90% equities, heavy on tech...
Had some debt & mortgage
I had a crash course in investing (pun intended)

I have a GREAT DEAL of sympathy for anyone suffering major losses... I went back to w*rk FT for 6 years to help get things back on track. Also spent a lot of time studying investments/retirement planning/asset allocation etc. and relieved DH of having to deal with our investments (which he didn't enjoy and was happy get rid of).

Now:
Allocation as of spring 08 - 40/40/20 cash
No mortgage
No debt

I've been on 'trial retirement' for 18 mos. If absolutely necessary, that could be changed on a few days notice. DH still runs his own company from here at home. Our portfolio is bruised but hasn't reached a level that changes retirement plans.

Honestly, I'm almost glad (okay, maybe that's a little extreme) for having weathered 2000-2003, as it was a driving force that led us to being better prepared this time around.

I *am* starting to trickle some of that cash back into the market. I'm not clever enough to call the bottom, but I have a gut feeling the Dow won't be at 8200 in 5-10 years.

Kay/TX

Interesting to see the different perspectives on this subject -- glad you posted it!

<lurk mode on>
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Old 11-13-2008, 08:51 PM   #44
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I'm vastly better off financially now. Makes no difference on my vote.

The fundamentals, globally, are horrible. This is going to be a major disaster.
Politicians and bureaucrats are typically trying to looking after themselves and their wealthy friends, but all they can accomplish is to make a dreadful situation much worse.

No person, group, country or even counties acting as a group can stop this untergang.

If I sound like a "doom and gloomer" it is just because I'm holding back on this public forum out of politeness and not stating how bad I think things are really going to get.

To end on a positive note, it will NOT be as degenerated as a "Mad Max" movie scenario.
Just an excruciatingly miserable life of want and shattered dreams for most of us.
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:14 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus View Post
Just an excruciatingly miserable life of want and shattered dreams for most of us.
Amen Brother!


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Old 11-13-2008, 09:18 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus View Post
I'm vastly better off financially now. Makes no difference on my vote.

The fundamentals, globally, are horrible. This is going to be a major disaster.
Politicians and bureaucrats are typically trying to looking after themselves and their wealthy friends, but all they can accomplish is to make a dreadful situation much worse.

No person, group, country or even counties acting as a group can stop this untergang.

If I sound like a "doom and gloomer" it is just because I'm holding back on this public forum out of politeness and not stating how bad I think things are really going to get.

To end on a positive note, it will NOT be as degenerated as a "Mad Max" movie scenario.
Just an excruciatingly miserable life of want and shattered dreams for most of us.
Oh please dont hold back. I would love to read your views on how it will all end.
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Old 11-13-2008, 10:45 PM   #47
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Holy cow. And I thought that, at worst, theater popcorn would go up another quarter!
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Old 11-14-2008, 12:56 AM   #48
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Slightly less concern - a bit in 2000-2002, very little now.

I missed the 2000-2002 decline (100% REITs for years), but was not FI until 2004 and my job was at risk those years (several rounds of layoffs). I could get another pretty easily, but still there was some stress.

Now I am retired and living on dividends (which have held up well so far - no REITs, no financials except GE) with a paid-off mortgage, but the economy is in worse shape, with even solid, well-run companies having credit troubles. Still, overall I don't feel uncomfortable even with 100% in individual equities. If PG / JNJ / KO lower their dividends, then I will start feeling stressed.
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Old 11-14-2008, 12:58 AM   #49
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I'm much more concerned this time around. During 2000-2002 I believed we were faced with a serious stock market bubble, but I also believed that everything would sort itself out in due course when stock prices came back down to earth. This time problems are significantly more complex and I see no simple solution. Simply put, the American Consumer is the engine that moves the economy. In 2000-2002 this miraculous engine lifted the economy out of a recession, supercharged by the housing bubble. This time, however, the American Consumer is completely tapped out and on life support. There's no housing ATM, and few lenders are inclined to extend any more credit to the moribund American Consumer (and for good reason). I believe this time we are going to have to dig ourselves out of the hole the old fashioned way -- by tightening our belts and paying down debt until it reaches a manageable level. This is not going to happen overnight. I wouldn't be surprised if it took several years. Those that are looking for a quick recovery in the equity markets -- good luck. I believe we'll get through this . . . but I also believe that the "gotta have it now" generation is going to be disappointed in terms of how long the recovery will take.
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Old 11-14-2008, 09:43 AM   #50
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2000-2002 didn't bother me much as I had almost entirely "old economy" stocks which did quite well.

I'm enough older now that I have seen some real trouble. This time I am getting my $ss handed to me, but it doesn't bother me too much because at least I don't have some horrible disease.



ha
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Old 11-14-2008, 12:49 PM   #51
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I am more concerned now because I am in semi-retirement.

I am concerned by the level of Government involvement i.e. bailouts, stimulus etc. I do not recall the government taking such drastic and huge actions in the 2001-2002 recession. This is more reminiscent of the '73-74 period when the government tried things like price controls.

I am concerned with the 5 to 7 percent daily swings the market is making on seemingly regular basis. I don't think there is any precedent for this post Great Depression. If the market it indeed foward looking it is a vision of the future clouded by schizofrenia. I don't think the market can find a bottom unitl the bailout is finished funds exhausted etc. Too many institutions have no real or visible bottom line with the bailout in place.
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Old 11-14-2008, 12:53 PM   #52
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Quote:
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I'm enough older now that I have seen some real trouble. This time I am getting my $ss handed to me, but it doesn't bother me too much because at least I don't have some horrible disease.


ha

Good way to put in perspective ! Every time I get a little crazy about the economy I think of some of the stories from this board about awful diseases and I consider myself lucky .
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Old 11-15-2008, 05:51 AM   #53
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A real health scare sure can put the economic situation in perspective
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Old 11-15-2008, 04:06 PM   #54
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it's a recency thing. I am always more concerned about the future than looking at the past. 2000-2002 is over and what is happening now if far from over- we have not begun the recovery yet.
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Old 11-15-2008, 04:43 PM   #55
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More concerned now. Today I am 16 months from RE. Back then I was 60/40 and my worst year in the bear was -12%. Today I am 40/50/10 and this 1st year of the bear I am -20%.
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Old 11-15-2008, 05:25 PM   #56
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More concerned now, but not for me personally.
I ERed in April 2000, just in time for the market to slide down, find out our roof had hidden very expensive problems, and find out I might need major surgery and have cancer.
We were financially prepared to deal with the roof although I would have rather have spent the money on a nice long overseas trip, my health turned out ok (knock on wood), and in comparison to those two the market didn't seem so important. Plus at that time it seemed like there were pretty clear short-term reasons for the market crash.
I'm more concerned now because it seems to me like the problem is world-wide and still getting worse, and we (the U.S.) have fewer resources to fall back on.
What I'm really worried about are my nieces and nephews. One recent college graduate just got laid off his first job out of college, about 6 months after starting work, and they're closing the entire big operation in his city. And he has a degree in a normally well paying secure field.
I graduated college into a recession back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, and had a hard time for a couple of years, and I hate to see the kids go through the same thing only worse.
My backup plan to move back into our remote cabin doesn't seem practical now that I'm older and creakier. I like my conveniences and company and the comfort of civilization.
Whine whine whine. Remember that where there's life, there's hope. Maybe our culture will improve from its present gimme gimmeness.
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Old 11-15-2008, 07:58 PM   #57
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I am much, much more concerned now.--for the country and for myself. I could understand the dot-com bubble. Companies like Fat Brain and maybe Razorfish didn't really need to survive (or, even exist). But, maybe GM and Ford do. Does AIG? I don't know, but I do know that the gov't. is throwing huge money into some companies that nobody else wants to throw money into. Anyhow, I don't recall people bringing up the Great Depression as they do now. It's even on my mind (sorry for bringing it up). And, I know people who have lost their jobs and others who plan on working a few more years longer than they planned to (I think I could be one of these people). It's bigger and scarier this time around. I'm glad that Countrywide is gone, but am sorry that Washington Mutual disinigrated. And, I'm concerned about the huge amount of debt that this country is running up. It seems like debt got us into this mess and I don't see how more debt is going to get us out. I don't think it works that way.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:11 PM   #58
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we have not begun the recovery yet.
that might very well be the understatement of the century-event: the great contraction. i suspect that if i better understood finance, i'd probably be a conspiracy theorist, wondering if housing isn't less to blame and more just a scapegoat. begun to recover? my fear is that we ain't seen nothin' yet.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:53 PM   #59
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I am more concerned now because I had good income and was glad to see the market go down in the early 00s so my monthly buys would buy more - it all worked out well. With out the dot.com bust many of us would not be in the great position we are in (were in?).
I went through a period of time a while back when I was VERY concerned. I have calmed down and looked at my situation - I have 4-5 years cash/CDs and 3-5 years in Wellesley (depending on how it fares) the rest in indexes, 2 small pensions that kick in in 3 years that should cover about 30% of our expenses or at least pay for our health insurance.
I am giving my family and I a pass - we are not going to worry, just enjoy our current life and situation. If things really do fall apart like Barbabas predicts we will update our position and act accordingly.
I have a gut feeling that we will get through this faster than many are thinking. But, I must admit I am often wrong - with the economy-- and the market
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Old 11-15-2008, 09:03 PM   #60
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The bottom is IN! Just got off the phone - A friend just got - 4 Kansas City/Saint's tickets at -50% off face value on E Bay.

Kansas City is always sold out - but this is a new scalpers low discount I think.

The bottom is in - nowhere to go but up from here.

Buy buy buy!

heh heh heh - I passed so he's taking his two son's and wife who will confuse everyone with her Green Bay Packers shirt while everyone else has Saint's colors.

- 50% is the bottom you heard it here.
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