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03-07-2013, 02:20 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
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Deja vu all over again?
 Quote:
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While past performance is no guarantee of future results, there’s something downright eerie about the five-year patterns of the S&P 500 Index...
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S&P 500 chart appears to repeat history
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Numbers is hard
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03-07-2013, 03:04 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,305
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So we need to sell off equities next year to avoid the correction. Thanks! 
jk (in case)
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No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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03-07-2013, 03:42 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pasadena CA
Posts: 3,346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
So we need to sell off equities next year to avoid the correction. Thanks!
jk (in case) |
No, but it may be time to rebalance. I'm getting closer to my rebalance bands but having mental trauma pondering the prospect of buying bonds/FI right now. I can reduce the possiibility of a big loss in equities by locking in a sure loss (after inflation & taxes) in bonds. It just takes some of the joy out of the highest point ever in our portfolio.
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T.S. Eliot:
Old men ought to be explorers
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03-07-2013, 04:12 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,150
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I look at the recent record marks as confirmation. Confirmation that once again, following the markets, and do not panic when chips are down is a working strategy 
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Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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03-07-2013, 08:37 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,866
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Wow - that IS eerie. I have 5 years of expenses in cash so I'll be able to wait out the next cycle also. However, If we have another correction like 2008 I may go all in with that money.
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"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11
ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
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03-08-2013, 06:19 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers
No, but it may be time to rebalance.
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Before the dive? Otherwise, rebalancing will be automatic.
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May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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03-08-2013, 12:58 PM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Upstate
Posts: 699
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Just for grits & shins, what happens if you overlay the S&P after the 87 crash?
Quote:
It didn't hold strictly true for 2012, but it may be that it takes 5 years for the market to recover from a drop of 50% or more(?)
Tyro
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Yeah well, that's just, ya know, like, your opinion, man. ~ The Dude
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03-08-2013, 01:38 PM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 648
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I'm just wondering why Gold is still over $800 an ounce. I blame the Discovery channel. 
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03-08-2013, 02:24 PM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 194
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5 years does not a trend make. But, I suspect if the market dives later on it will be because the war on savers is over Fed has raised rates. In that case we will rebalance and buy bonds cheaper than they are today and at higher interest rates.
Of course, one could follow Dr. Pfau's idea and buy a few SPIA's rather than bonds. That would help a person ride out a down market. He seems to think a Stock/SPIA combo does better than a Stock/Bond combo. Still, I would wait a while to buy the SPIA due to low rates. No EZ answers here.
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03-08-2013, 03:24 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,374
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers
No, but it may be time to rebalance. I'm getting closer to my rebalance bands but having mental trauma pondering the prospect of buying bonds/FI right now. I can reduce the possiibility of a big loss in equities by locking in a sure loss (after inflation & taxes) in bonds. It just takes some of the joy out of the highest point ever in our portfolio.
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I rebalanced, but invested in short-term bonds rather than bonds. However, after doing that over the last year or so since I retired my liquidity bucket is as full as I care to have it.
Like you, long bonds interest rate risk still scare me.
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If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-08-2013, 04:32 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,506
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I am firmly in the do nothing mode. Let it ride.
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