Today, the U.S. fertility rate of over two children per woman remains as much as twice as high as many countries, including Russia, Germany, Japan, Italy, Singapore and Korea. As a result, according to U.S. census projections, the United States will continue to grow to upwards of 420 million by 2050.
In contrast, the populations of longterm competitors among advanced countries—including the European Union, Japan and Russia—are all expected to stagnate and then decline. Japan is a particularly hard case. Its fertility rate has dropped by a third since 1975. By 2015, a full quarter of the Japanese population will be over 65. Generally inhospitable to immigrants, Japan could see its population drop from a current 127 million to 95 million by 2050, with as much as 40 percent of the population over 65 years of age. By then, no matter how innovative the workforce, Dai Nippon will simply be too old to compete.
To a large extent, Europe shares this dilemma. By 2050, Europe’s population, now numbering 730 million people, will shrink by 75 to 100 million. Italy’s population alone is slated to drop by 22 percent, while Poland’s will be reduced to 15 percent.
Due to the one child policy and rapid urbanization, China’s population growth is also expected to slow significantly in coming years while the proportion of seniors soars. In the longer run, population growth will be stymied by a large surplus of boys over girls. As a result, notes demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, more than 25 percent of men in their late 30s by 2030 are likely never to marry.
Perhaps even more challenged will be Russia, whose low birth and high mortality rates suggest that its population will drop 30 percent by 2050 to less than one-third of that of the U.S. Even Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken of "the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation."
