Determining if you are living below your means

[GravitySucks]

I don't plan on 100%. I plan for 95 years old, but set a SWR where RIP says I have a 10% chance of going broke at a point where I have about a 10% chance of being alive. SS and a small annuity will be enough at that point.

That's the plan at least. I'm a bit to "frugal" to spend that much so far.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

[NW-Bound]

10% of going broke with a 10% of being alive means that the combination has only a chance of 1%. Good for you!

If someone gets sick, spends a lot of money on medical bills then croaks, he also dies broke, and it works out for him too.

[Which Roger]

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Originally Posted by Fermion In Russia right now they are not having problems with zombies but the people who own gold have watched it gain 80% this year against the ruble.

It seems to me that gold is a good hedge against things like what is happening in Russia now, where the there is a lot of turmoil. But, in a case where there is a complete economic collapse, I'd rather have a bag of pretzels than a pound of gold.

[RockyMtn]

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Originally Posted by Fermion Why does everyone make fun of living in a van by a river. That is what our plan is. I am serious. Freedom to move around, no real estate tax, no yard to maintain. Ok, so it is an RV by a mountain or lake but...

Hey...when times are hard you can live in your car but you can't drive your house!

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Fermion IMO owning a little physical gold and silver is the final key to near 100% success in your portfolio. It helps cover some of the last few % points that can't be risk reduced by other means (currency collapse, government confiscation, widespread cyber meltdown from virus, solar storm, EMP) For almost everyone I would say get everything else in order first, but once you have that 1% SWR or whatever makes you sleep well at night, consider a bit of gold and silver.

And gold is "concentrated wealth", making it easier to take it with you in your RV.

Lemme see. An RV king bed can be as small as 72"x75", but a Kruggerand is only 1.28" in diameter. This means lining up the bed platform with them, then covering the imperceptible thickness with a layer of lauan plywood, you can stash 56 x 58 = 3248 coins.

At the current price of $1200/oz, that's nearly $4M you can sleep on for maximum security and comfort. And all that gold weighs just a bit more than 200 lbs. And in case of an unfortunate RV fire, you can recover it as a puddle at the bottom of the debris, unlike paper money which burns or might be worthless anyway.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound And gold is "concentrated wealth", making it easier to take it with you in your RV. Lemme see. An RV king bed can be as small as 72"x75", but a Kruggerand is only 1.28" in diameter. This means lining up the bed platform with them, then covering the imperceptible thickness with a layer of lauan plywood, you can stash 56 x 58 = 3248 coins. At the current price of $1200/oz, that's nearly $4M you can sleep on for maximum security and comfort. And all that gold weighs just a bit more than 200 lbs. And in case of an unfortunate RV fire, you can recover it as a puddle at the bottom of the debris, unlike paper money which burns or might be worthless anyway.

Or you could do something radical like keep it in a safety deposit box or two (or 3)

[Amethyst]

You can make your gold work for you by wearing it. (Not all at once, mind you, unless you're Mr. T.)

Amethyst

[M Paquette]

A local survivalist told me "After the collapse, it'll be easy to get gold. That's what the guns are for."

I suspect he's looking forward to a lifestyle where he leads a militia band engaged in his vision of free enterprise.

You know all the goofy people you've encountered around town or on line? Most of them will still be around after the currency collapse, government confiscation, widespread cyber meltdown from virus, solar storm, EMP happens. They might not feel quite so restrained, though.

[Fermion]

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Originally Posted by M Paquette A local survivalist told me "After the collapse, it'll be easy to get gold. That's what the guns are for." I suspect he's looking forward to a lifestyle where he leads a militia band engaged in his vision of free enterprise. You know all the goofy people you've encountered around town or on line? Most of them will still be around after the currency collapse, government confiscation, widespread cyber meltdown from virus, solar storm, EMP happens. They might not feel quite so restrained, though.

Why does everyone go by past history for stock market performance but when it comes to holding gold, they ignore history and make up random scenarios where the gold is taken by gun?

Have there been any reports of widespread use of force or guns in Russia to take gold from those who have it?

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Why does everyone go by past history for stock market performance but when it comes to holding gold, they ignore history and make up random scenarios where the gold is taken by gun? Have there been any reports of widespread use of force or guns in Russia to take gold from those who have it?

I suspect people who graph historical stock market performance and those who buy guns and gold for the coming apocalypse are not generally the same subset of citizens. One group thinks the last 30 years or more of stock market performance will predict future market performance and the other is betting on the downfall of modern society as we have come to know it.

[Options]

I wouldn't make decisions based on running only one calculator. You might want to verify with a few others, like FIDO, Financial Engines, ********, ESPlanner, among others. Even then, it's wise to remain flexible, aware, and conservative.

[nash031]

At some point, I expect we'll run out of investment principal and live off of pension and SS. My goal is to make that happen at whatever age it is where I assume I will be unable to do anything above those above-average means anyway... currently planning for 95.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by nash031 My goal is to make that happen at whatever age it is where I assume I will be unable to do anything above those above-average means anyway... currently planning for 95.

If we delay SS till 70, we will be getting $66K in today's dollars. I may not care to spend more than that at 70, let alone 95.

Or when we are older, may need spend a lot more for home care, like the father of a poster who needs $16K/month or $192K/year for 24-hour personal care. That's serious money. I think I'll just die quickly.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Or you could do something radical like keep it in a safety deposit box or two (or 3)

OK. But you need to spread it out among several banks throughout the country. Else, it takes a lot of gas to drive your RV to the bank each time you need to get a few Krugerrands.

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Originally Posted by Amethyst You can make your gold work for you by wearing it. (Not all at once, mind you, unless you're Mr. T.)

We are talking several pounds of gold here. Is Mr. T strong enough to wear a brick or two 24/7 around his neck?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Why does everyone go by past history for stock market performance but when it comes to holding gold, they ignore history and make up random scenarios where the gold is taken by gun?

If not gold then what would they rob you for? Do you think that in a Mad Max scenario, bandits will be roaming the road looking to hold up people to rob them of their stock certificates?

Heck, nowadays people even go paperless and do not even have a printed copy of their brokerage account statements, for crying out loud. "Hey, give me your USB memory stick with PDF files of your Vanguard accounts"?

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound If not gold then what would they rob you for? Do you think that in a Mad Max scenario, bandits will be roaming the road looking to hold up people to rob them of their stock certificates?

Sigh. My point is you don't need a Max Max scenario with spiked epaulets and leather thongs for gold to be a serious protector of your assets.

Are there people in Russia right now driving around in beater cars while wearing leather thongs and shooting people that have gold? No?

Were there people in Argentina doing that in the hyperinflation years of the 1990s? No?

Two examples from VERY recent history where gold was a useful protector of purchasing power when currency collapsed.

Why is it that we bring up past events like the years following the great depression (OVER 70 years ago!) when we caution people that the stock market can take years to recover but we ignore recent events relating to currency collapse because we have a negative gold bias? We are very quick on here to point out deflation in Japan as a reason for this or that, but we pooh pooh problems of currency because they are isolated to individual countries. When did Japan become more than an individual country? Does this mean deflation is not a threat because it has only happened in Japan?

I am not a gold bug by any means but if I had enough assets such that I was actually worried about getting a 98% or 99.0924% success rate in Firecalc I would definitely consider owning some gold and silver.

[NW-Bound]

My joke implies that gold is a hard asset compared to equities, or should I say "harder".

However, it does not pay dividend, same as real estate (non-rental) or land, and one should not be 100% in them. Still these are good to hold for diversification. As you are thinking about not owning a home, a bit of gold may be good for an inflation hedge. I have accumulated quite a bit in I-bonds plus 2 homes, so do not have much gold other than a few coins for keepsake that I bought back when they were $400/oz.

[ArkTinkerer]

My "aces in the hole" are a couple guns for hunting (with reloading equipment and supplies), farmland, and a good size garden. I don't deny that the guns could be used for defence against zombies but I prefer to shoot my enemies (deer, rabbits, squirrels) and then eat them. I have a bow and crossbow as the ultimate fallback plan but frankly, I would probably starve to death if I had to rely on those.

[nash031]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Sigh. My point is you don't need a Max Max scenario with spiked epaulets and leather thongs for gold to be a serious protector of your assets. Are there people in Russia right now driving around in beater cars while wearing leather thongs and shooting people that have gold? No? Were there people in Argentina doing that in the hyperinflation years of the 1990s? No? Two examples from VERY recent history where gold was a useful protector of purchasing power when currency collapsed. Why is it that we bring up past events like the years following the great depression (OVER 70 years ago!) when we caution people that the stock market can take years to recover but we ignore recent events relating to currency collapse because we have a negative gold bias? We are very quick on here to point out deflation in Japan as a reason for this or that, but we pooh pooh problems of currency because they are isolated to individual countries. When did Japan become more than an individual country? Does this mean deflation is not a threat because it has only happened in Japan? I am not a gold bug by any means but if I had enough assets such that I was actually worried about getting a 98% or 99.0924% success rate in Firecalc I would definitely consider owning some gold and silver.

Comparing the Japanese economy to that of the US is apples-oranges. The resource demands of the two countries aren't met in nearly the same way. Japan has struggled to become even remotely resource independent for the entirety of its existence, to the point of going to war to do so. The collapse of the Yen was quite the case of irrational exuberance, magnified by an almost entirely resource-import-dependent economy.

While it's likely true that the US Dollar will see its day come to an end as the preferred world currency, two things have to happen for that to be true: it must collapse due to some catastrophic economic event, and something has to be there to step up to take its place. Despite the fact that Porter Stansberry has predicted that to occur every year this millenium, as far as I know, I do not believe that will happen in my lifetime.

I've been in a lot of discussions over the last few years about gold. My position is that it's a commodity worth what someone will pay for it. I could stockpile coffee beans for the same effect.

[Fermion]

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Originally Posted by nash031 I've been in a lot of discussions over the last few years about gold. My position is that it's a commodity worth what someone will pay for it. I could stockpile coffee beans for the same effect.

Everything is only worth what someone will pay for it. Coffee beans are quite a bit easier to produce per ounce than gold. Coffee is actually a pretty good hedge against inflation but it does not store well long term and is hard to keep $100,000 worth from spoiling if you have to hold it for years.

[NW-Bound]

Gasoline is hard to produce. For me anyway, as I have no clue to make some on my own.

Right now, I want to hoard some gasoline like you do, but the only storage I have is my motorhome 55-gal tank. And I just checked. It's still 1/2 full. Darn!