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Didnít go cash stayed with AA any other Brave the market ER cohorts
Old 10-02-2019, 02:44 PM   #1
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Didnít go cash stayed with AA any other Brave the market ER cohorts

So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasnít my style of investing. Like many here, I subscribe to buy, hold, hold, maybe sell but more profits holding over time.
Projected targets over 5yr increments have mostly surpassed amount set but definitely over a ten year period. Now that Iíve actually retired (Circa April 18í)
Iím thinking about future ladder CDís perhaps Vanguard and money market ultra conservative returns with a small consideration for inflation. Unique in DW and I household are two state pensions (CA) mine has an annual cola.
DW is currently still full-time maxing a 457b deferred and will catch-up her final 3yrs say 2021-2024.

Anybody else ever grow tired of the Ďbubbleí burst of the markets and think whatís wrong with just having 1mil instead of 2 or 3? Or $500k as a supplement to defined pension?
We are over the million category but itís taking another hit, thus the post.

Debt is low - asset only 3 properties
DTI is only 22% we really live below are means but enjoy luxury (spend) travel.

I like the burn the dough threads but how about using a 20yr spread? Think this market will take us for a doozy!
We still have relative high income $200k yr but in San Francisco Bay CA.
Gas is over $4 again...lol. Go electric?

I really like ER Welcome your posts contrast/similar/unique
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Old 10-02-2019, 03:03 PM   #2
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....but it’s taking another hit, thus the post. ...
Please elaborate. Also, what is your AA?
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Old 10-02-2019, 03:03 PM   #3
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As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

I watch the market with bemusement, but have never changed my AA based on it's behavior and don't plan to start.

...

What do you mean by "a 20yr spread" ?

...

Yes, the market was down yesterday and probably down a percent or two today (haven't checked the close). It was down in Q4 2018. It was down in 2016, 2015, 2008-2009, 2001, 1993?, 1987, 1974, etc. The many up days and the up years after the down years don't get anywhere near as much news, but the math still works.

...

Gas here is somewhere around $2.70. I drive about 11K miles a year and my $2,500 26 year old sedan gets 20 mpg, so that's $1,507 in gas a year. Not really an issue. The payback on a $50K Tesla isn't there if you're just looking at dollars and cents: ($50K - $2.5K) / $1,507 is a long time. If you buy the argument that it's better for the environment, that could be a different discussion.

...

Yup, SFO is expensive. Maybe consider living somewhere else. "It's not what you make, it's what you keep."
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Old 10-02-2019, 03:26 PM   #4
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Live Large,
I think I catch your drift. Personally I stashed 25 years expenses in a 7 year CD ladder. The rest I'll just let ride in equities for the long run. Meanwhile I'm fortunate enough to live on the interest and dividends. At least until the yields collapse to zero. Then I'll tap the principal. After that the downside sets in but I'll be dead anyway. ☺
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Old 10-02-2019, 06:30 PM   #5
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So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasnít my style of investing.

Iím thinking about future ladder CDís perhaps Vanguard and money market ultra conservative returns with a small consideration for inflation.
Is that your style?
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Old 10-03-2019, 01:30 PM   #6
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As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

Thats pretty much where I'm at as well.
Do you draw down from that portfolio as well?
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Old 10-03-2019, 01:44 PM   #7
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So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasn’t my style of investing. Like many here, I subscribe to buy, hold, hold, maybe sell but more profits holding over time.
For better or worse, the '08/'09 debacle emboldened me to hold at 60/35/5. "Don't just do something; stand there!". "Over time" is the key phrase; there might be 2 or 3 or 5 flat years, but over time it tends to pay off.

We live off our dividends and interest and I only sell shares to rebalance and/or get rid of a dog and buy something showing more promise.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:38 PM   #8
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Thats pretty much where I'm at as well.
Do you draw down from that portfolio as well?
Well, I try.

I lead a boring life in a LCOL area.

My gross withdrawal rate (spending / portfolio) is currently 2.43%.

I also have some income that doesn't come from my portfolio. That offsets most of my spending.

My net withdrawal rate ( (spending - non-portfolio income) / portfolio) is currently 0.77%.

Since I FIRE'd in February 2016, the market has been kind to me. I understand that could change.
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:47 PM   #9
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Please elaborate. Also, what is your AA?
Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep 💤 well q I just felt I got a little greedy and shouldíve cashed out but like to ride the wave 🌊 peaks some valleys back to peak
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:17 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

I watch the market with bemusement, but have never changed my AA based on it's behavior and don't plan to start.

...

What do you mean by "a 20yr spread" ?

...

Yes, the market was down yesterday and probably down a percent or two today (haven't checked the close). It was down in Q4 2018. It was down in 2016, 2015, 2008-2009, 2001, 1993?, 1987, 1974, etc. The many up days and the up years after the down years don't get anywhere near as much news, but the math still works.

...

Gas here is somewhere around $2.70. I drive about 11K miles a year and my $2,500 26 year old sedan gets 20 mpg, so that's $1,507 in gas a year. Not really an issue. The payback on a $50K Tesla isn't there if you're just looking at dollars and cents: ($50K - $2.5K) / $1,507 is a long time. If you buy the argument that it's better for the environment, that could be a different discussion.

...

Yup, SFO is expensive. Maybe consider living somewhere else. "It's not what you make, it's what you keep."
Got a lot from your comments, thanks. True on the market the math just works so I do sleep well - not as Long as you may have been bought & sold a few good stocks but I’m moving to hold longer dividend stock or Vanguard index - payment by spread I mean ROI for 20-25yrs not concerned if my principal goes to 0 at 80yrs old (if Alive) hence my moniker Live Large. My 457b is hedge on inflation on my pension that also has a cola. Roth IRA + 100k CS No, Tesla your right (math) Florida/Nevada
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:32 AM   #11
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Live Large,
I think I catch your drift. Personally I stashed 25 years expenses in a 7 year CD ladder. The rest I'll just let ride in equities for the long run. Meanwhile I'm fortunate enough to live on the interest and dividends. At least until the yields collapse to zero. Then I'll tap the principal. After that the downside sets in but I'll be dead anyway. ☺
Yes Yes! Spend your hard earned cash, I mean why did we all save all these years 25-30 to leave money sitting around. Can’t spend it all? Give it away while you here.
I’m ok if my ROI burns thru the principal within 20-25yrs once I start to withdraw in a couple years. ER’s at 51 start using at 55 won’t wait till forced make min w/d 70.5
No, enjoy the fruits while I can hike explore youthful physical capabilities very active
Travels include a first class ticket flight on occasion ��
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:43 AM   #12
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For better or worse, the '08/'09 debacle emboldened me to hold at 60/35/5. "Don't just do something; stand there!". "Over time" is the key phrase; there might be 2 or 3 or 5 flat years, but over time it tends to pay off.

We live off our dividends and interest and I only sell shares to rebalance and/or get rid of a dog and buy something showing more promise.
I subscribe to your Live Well by Living Large!
Plan to spend beyond the interest return 20yrs
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:50 AM   #13
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Is that your style?
No, much more of a high risk that has endured a few huge swings but such eventual new highs make me think I should become conservative- how much more needed?
Still live far below annual income way of lifestyle now but like the Blow that Dough threads...lol.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:27 AM   #14
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Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep well q I just felt I got a little greedy and shouldíve cashed out but like to ride the wave peaks some valleys back to peak


Umm, whatís happening now is minor volatility. The fact that you are even discussing not changing your AA during this ďvalleyĒ may be an indication that you might be more likely to change it during a real 20-50% downturn?
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:33 AM   #15
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Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep �� well q I just felt I got a little greedy and should’ve cashed out but like to ride the wave �� peaks some valleys back to peak
How in the world can you be down 7% right now?

Even from its peak around July 27th the stock market is only down about 3.9% but is up over 16% for the year to date.

Poor stock picking?
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:36 AM   #16
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Yes Yes! Spend your hard earned cash, I mean why did we all save all these years 25-30 to leave money sitting around. Canít spend it all? Give it away while you here. ...
Totally agree... I saved it to spend it in retirement, not to hoard it.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:46 AM   #17
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I'm about to FIRE and have gone from 80% to 42% equities over the last year and a half. I'm at around 70X required expenses (inc taxes) in my stash, so I'm playing it conservative, as that leaves still leaves plenty for discretionary.
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Old 10-04-2019, 06:58 AM   #18
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Last September, I commented how I was up 19% YTD, and was thrilled with 100% growth equities (trying to make up for years of non-investing). Needless to say, October/November 2018 took everyone on a ride, and December rebounded slightly, but still ended the year at only 8% YTD (down 10% from September).

This year in September I was up 24.5% and loving life, I kept hearing/seeing threatening news that was effecting the market, and decided to trust my gut. I went to 90% income securities, and have missed most of the rough down days so far. Maybe December/Christmas will bring a new growth pattern that I can get back in....we will see, but in the meantime, I have preserved some sizeable profits.

I also live a boring life in a LCOL area, and live pretty frugally compared to most, just trying to be able to F.I.R.E. with confidence and live comfortably.
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Old 10-04-2019, 07:23 AM   #19
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Old 10-04-2019, 10:14 AM   #20
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How in the world can you be down 7% right now?

Even from its peak around July 27th the stock market is only down about 3.9% but is up over 16% for the year to date.

Poor stock picking?
I have 1 large holding Iím awaiting next two ER for it to blossom- it has Me at the -7 but Iím ok with it. Like Iíve posted I do 💤 well.
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