different retirement calculator

[miki]

Hi FIREs

I have developed a spreadsheet that takes your (net after SS etc.) monthly expense, total yielding assets, age and life expectancy and return a Yield (%) that you have to achieve on your yielding assets in order to make it to your life expectancy age. Most calculators I have seen assume a historic ROR based on some assets allocation model and (and so does FIREcalc).​

Anybody seen a calculator that provides ROR as an answer?​

Do U consider it a helpful piece of information?​

Miki​

 

[Midpack]

There are many ways to skin that cat, and yours is as good as any other. I definitely want to enter my rate of return and I know what rates of return I want my spreadsheet to assume (based on my AA and Rick Ferri's projected real returns for the next 30 years).

My spreadsheet takes as inputs: current age, retirement age, end of plan age (when I go poof), inflation, rate of return, current taxable assets, current deferred assets, pension value, my SS and my wife's SS with starting ages, SS reduction (I use 50% of what my statement projects) and all the additional savings while I'm working (taxable, IRA's, 401k, etc.). It also takes a table of 'special expenses' (adjusted for inflation) and the tax tables (adjusted by inflation +1%). I use conservative/pessimistic assumptions throughout. It knows to account for RMD and it then 'solves' for a starting after tax annual expenses (including special expenses) and inflates each year by the assumed inflation. If all goes according to plan I will die broke at 97. But again, many ways to approach this and there is no plan with a high probability of being correct 30-40 years out anyway, I know I'll need to be prepared to adjust for contingencies...

 

[miki]

Thanks for the detailed answer. It seems you have closed all the windows and locked all the doors but are aware that ms. uncertainty may find a way to snick in anyway. With my model I don't have to assume long term ROR. If the number (currently 4.5% gross) is achievable I sleep well. If not I either adjust my expenses or take more risk this year. If I blow it I adjust next year.​

BTW FIREcalc gave me a 67% chance achieving my plan for the next 30 years (my horizon-88) but if I look at the Vanguard probability of living a selected number of years than 88 has a 26% chance for me. So, all in all I have only 8% of reaching 88 w/o a penny to my name (.26x.33) . I will take the risk. No need to adjust spending yet.​

Miki​