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Disaster porn or visionary ?
Old 09-27-2011, 01:00 PM   #1
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Disaster porn or visionary ?

Is this "independent trader" (play the video in the article here) a self-interested Cassandra, or does he know something which everyone else doesn't ? If the "big funds" are all pulling out, why isn't that reflected in the Euro/$ rate ? Are they planning to pull out simultaneously in some giant conspiracy ?
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:02 PM   #2
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Anyone who *sincerely* believes they know what will happen in the markets can make a LOT more money by quietly acting on their own insights than in selling advice.
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:17 PM   #3
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He knows about as much as the HS kid selling burgers at McDonalds. Actually, that was a slam to the kid selling burgers at McDonalds. If he had knowledge noon else truly had, he would become a billionare and go hide in the Caribbean somewhere........
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:31 PM   #4
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I think he's right. He understands that the problems in Europe and the rest of the world are not going away magically. Goldman Sachs DOES run the show. The economy isn't going to get better any time soon. Many investors are positioning themselves for a large downturn in the markets in the near future. How is this surprising to anyone??

I'm pretty sure everyone actively involved in investing understands the severity of the economic situation before us.
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:37 PM   #5
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Consider it the same thing as an adventure movie on TV. Thrilling, lots of mayhem, but a product of Hollywood.

Real life is more scary. He may be an optimist.

I am predicting the end of the world. The date is a little fuzzy, but I will be 100% right one day.

Seriously, some of us could be in for some rough times. My kids are there right now. I might have to play the role of Noah.
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:39 PM   #6
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He certainly did not hedge his opinion (pun intended)!

Many (professionals) have been saying if Greece defaults, that it could bring about a financial crisis in Europe (with global impact) similar to the Lehman failure.
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Old 09-27-2011, 01:57 PM   #7
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I think it's hilarious. He says that big fund managers are getting out of the market entirely and investing in treasuries instead - - yet Wellesley is stil 37.4% equities, pretty much the same as always, and the top 10 of their equity holdings (which I don't see them ditching) are
Quote:
1 Chevron Corp
2 Johnson & Johnson
3 Merck & Co Inc
4 Home Depot Inc
5 Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc
6 Pfizer Inc
7 AT&T Inc
8 Royal Dutch Shell PLC
9 Philip Morris International Inc
10 Kimberly-Clark Corp
Yes, the market is shaky right now and yes, we might (or might not) be in for another market crash. But this guy is no guru IMO.

Still, what a great quote: "Governments don't rule the world. Goldman Sachs rules the world!" Well delivered, too.

Edited to add: Here's an interesting analysis of Rastani and his veracity.
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Old 09-27-2011, 02:08 PM   #8
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As a former (Salomon Bros.) trader myself, I understand his predatory attitude and need to focus on the trade as opposed to the problem that is presenting the opportunity to begin with. It takes an optimist to be an investor and a realist to be a trader. He is not pretending to know anything we all don't already know.

In this vein though, I recently read that more money (outflows) from global stock markets have occurred in the past three months than total inflows since March 2009-March 2011 combined. (wish I could remember the source)
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Old 09-27-2011, 02:19 PM   #9
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For every seller, there is a buyer. Who's buying?
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:05 PM   #10
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It's possible that "some" active managers are leaving the market, but index funds/ETFs aren't, and likely many pension funds aren't...
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:18 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by IBWino View Post
For every seller, there is a buyer. Who's buying?
The smart people are buying and the dumb people are selling.

Oh wait - the dumb people are buying and the smart people are selling.

It's one of those; I'm easily confused ...
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:21 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Anyone who *sincerely* believes they know what will happen in the markets can make a LOT more money by quietly acting on their own insights than in selling advice.
No, the real money is to be made advising others how they should invest per your market insights.

There is no need to put your persoanl money in such a risky venture.
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:28 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by BigNick View Post
Is this "independent trader" (play the video in the article here) a self-interested Cassandra, or does he know something which everyone else doesn't ? If the "big funds" are all pulling out, why isn't that reflected in the Euro/$ rate ? Are they planning to pull out simultaneously in some giant conspiracy ?
BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not a trader' - Telegraph

"He is a business owner, a 99pc shareholder in public speaking venture Santoro Projects. Its most recent accounts show cash in the bank of 985. After four years trading net assets are 10,048 - in the red."

Ha
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:33 PM   #14
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No, the real money is to be made advising others how they should invest per your market insights.
Not if you *know* you're right, as some of these peddlers of investing porn make it seem.

If you really knew what the market was going to do, the big money isn't to be made in telling others about it. That was my point. That they sell their ideas instead of putting their money where their mouth is tells me something about their convictions regarding the accuracy of their opinions.
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Old 09-27-2011, 04:07 PM   #15
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He certainly did not hedge his opinion (pun intended)!

Many (professionals) have been saying if Greece defaults, that it could bring about a financial crisis in Europe (with global impact) similar to the Lehman failure.
Saw a discussion on one of the cable shows in which they compared the economy of Greece to that of one our states. IIRC it was CT or a similar one of the smaller (NE) states - for instance, it was NOT CA. Whether this is germane, I don't pretend to know. "For want of a nail..." might apply, so I suppose Greece could collapse Europe, but I tend to doubt it. My fear is that Greece isn't the only one on the verge of default.
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Old 09-27-2011, 05:02 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by rescueme View Post
The smart people are buying and the dumb people are selling.

Oh wait - the dumb people are buying and the smart people are selling.

It's one of those; I'm easily confused ...
Yeah, I'm one of those.
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Old 09-27-2011, 05:34 PM   #17
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BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not a trader' - Telegraph

"He is a business owner, a 99pc shareholder in public speaking venture Santoro Projects. Its most recent accounts show cash in the bank of 985. After four years trading net assets are 10,048 - in the red."

Ha
There is some discussion that it might all be a farce. See this

Is Alessio Rastani a Yes Man? | Felix Salmon

This will be helpful in reading the above link:

The Yes Men
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Old 09-27-2011, 05:42 PM   #18
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There is some discussion that it might all be a farce. See this

Is Alessio Rastani a Yes Man? | Felix Salmon

This will be helpful in reading the above link:

The Yes Men
The consensus seems to be that it's not a total hoax, but there will be some red faces at the BBC as to how this guy got on the air. Probably a disaster porn auction.

In 2003, France had a heat wave. Lots of fragile old people were keeling over a month or two before their time. For about a week, the evening news shows competed to see who could get the "expert" on who was prepared to make up the biggest death toll. Last night Professor A said 6,000 people were dead. If you were a Professor of something medical or meteorological and prepared to say 8,000 then the car would be round at 7pm to pick you up in time for the 8pm bulletin. The truth ? Who cares ?
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Old 09-28-2011, 12:05 AM   #19
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Saw a discussion on one of the cable shows in which they compared the economy of Greece to that of one our states. IIRC it was CT or a similar one of the smaller (NE) states - for instance, it was NOT CA. Whether this is germane, I don't pretend to know. "For want of a nail..." might apply, so I suppose Greece could collapse Europe, but I tend to doubt it. My fear is that Greece isn't the only one on the verge of default.
While the GDP of Greece may be small, how does the total debt of Greece compare with the total debt outstanding of CT?
$12.7B current CT debt
Euro310B current Greek debt (US$400B)

GDP comparison
$216B CT GDP for 2008
$320B Greek GDP for 2009

At issue isn't the annual output of Greece, but the total outstanding Greek debt held by various financial institutions (still) in almost critical condition. Having Greece default would require ALL holders of Greek debt to mark down their balance sheets with huge discounts applied to Greek debt - and then require various forced-liquidations and settling of other positions to shore up their balance sheet. Then, as different parts of the financial world go through increased selling pressure, perhaps one medium sized bank goes under....which results in all debt of that bank to be valued with a huge discount as well (similar to Lehman), and then everyone holding that bank's debt marks it down....then add Portugal/Ireland/Spain to the mix, and true financial catastrophe follows.
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Old 09-28-2011, 08:20 AM   #20
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At issue isn't the annual output of Greece, but the total outstanding Greek debt held by various financial institutions (still) in almost critical condition. Having Greece default would require ALL holders of Greek debt to mark down their balance sheets with huge discounts applied to Greek debt - and then require various forced-liquidations and settling of other positions to shore up their balance sheet. Then, as different parts of the financial world go through increased selling pressure, perhaps one medium sized bank goes under....which results in all debt of that bank to be valued with a huge discount as well (similar to Lehman), and then everyone holding that bank's debt marks it down....then add Portugal/Ireland/Spain to the mix, and true financial catastrophe follows.
MooreBonds, that is a succinct and cogent explanation of the current situation. You should be a financial journalist.
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