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Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 05:10 PM   #1
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Diviís

Any of these worth a look at? A friend recommended FRO a year ago and I passed?

Anyone have any better prospects?

Company Dividend Yield

Nordic American Tanker NAT 17.1%.
Frontline Ltd. FRO 15.8%
General Maritime Corp. GMR 15.4%
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. EGLE 14.0%
Genco Shipping & Trading GSTL 13.8%
Diana Shipping Inc. DSX 12.6%
Quintana Maritime Ltd. QMAR 10.2%
Ship Finance International SFL 10.0%
Arlington Tankers Ltd. ATB 9.9%
Stolt-Nielsen S.A. SNSA 8.8%

Source: http://www.theonlineinvestor.com/div_topten.phtml
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 06:08 PM   #2
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Re: Diviís

I guess I should be asking, what is the best strategy for growth and income (dividend)?
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 06:18 PM   #3
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Re: Diviís

VEIPX
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 06:24 PM   #4
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Re: Diviís

I just looked up one -- DSX. It's earnings barely cover the dividend. These folks don't believe in retained earnings. I didn't look at how leveraged they are. I suspect they have lots of debt. The shipping biz is a high capex/high opex operation.
There's always risk when the dividends become "too good to be true."

You didn't put up any of the Canadian oil partnerships. I haven't looked lately but they should be out of site.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 06:47 PM   #5
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
I guess I should be asking, what is the best strategy for growth and income (dividend)?* *
Budweiser - Hey if Buffett can buy it and still drink his cherry coke.

Need I say more - nod, nod, wink, wink.

heh heh heh heh - I do have a tad EGLE courtesy Brew's suggestion - wild and free money only - real ER is balanced index. And a little STON - no BUD - yet.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 07:05 PM   #6
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
Any of these worth a look at?* A friend recommended FRO a year ago and I passed?

Anyone have any better prospects?*

Company* * * * * * * * * * * * Dividend Yield

Nordic American Tanker NAT 17.1%.
Frontline Ltd. FRO 15.8%
General Maritime Corp. GMR 15.4%
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. EGLE 14.0%
Genco Shipping & Trading GSTL 13.8%
Diana Shipping Inc. DSX 12.6%
Quintana Maritime Ltd. QMAR 10.2%
Ship Finance International SFL 10.0%
Arlington Tankers Ltd. ATB 9.9%
Stolt-Nielsen S.A. SNSA 8.8%

Source: http://www.theonlineinvestor.com/div_topten.phtml
I own EGLE and I have options on DSX. EGLE, GSTL and SFL are the pick of the litter here (maybe GMR, too). I would also add STON (taxable accounts only), SSW, and SPH.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 07:23 PM   #7
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Re: Diviís

Sooooo - Psyopranger - nobody's PM'd and warned you about me yet - eh!

Hint - I'm the guy who escaped Katrina with a file cabinet of DRIP plans - 40 or so - some as far back as 1989.

Turning over a new leaf - I'm driving my VG broker nuts - with certificates and direct transfers - down to my last twenty or so.

In the 'young' end of the accumulation phase I would emphasize div growth over current div and consistency measured in decades.

Moneypaper, Mergent's Handbook of Dividend Achiever's - there are others.

Tough habit to kick - but we all get old - sooner or later.

P.S. - divs were about 40% of income the first ten years of ER - when I was a cheap bastard and didn't spend much.

heh heh heh
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 08:28 PM   #8
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Re: Diviís

Usa today just had an article on dividend stocks
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...ividends_x.htm
I got my start in stocks when my family bought some drip stocks for me.


They just had a 60 minutes were some guy supposedly got fired for drinking a coors. That he claims he got by mistake and the bosses son happened to see him drinking it ...I guess if you work for Bud you better drink Bud. Or atleast get it in a glass.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 08:49 PM   #9
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
I guess I should be asking, what is the best strategy for growth and income (dividend)?* *
Alec posted a paper by Cliff Asness a while back.* *One of his findings was that dividend payers with the highest payout ratio also had the highest growth.

Here's a NY Times article about his research:

article

And the actual paper is here, I think -- it's not working for me right now.

Personally, I think you need to watch out for sector exposure on dividend stocks.* *Just about all of the ones in your list are shipping companies.* *Many of the dividend funds are thinly disguised banking or utility sector funds.* *Just get a good mix, including international, and you should do well.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 09:18 PM   #10
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Re: Diviís

Classic widows and orphans: utilities, telephone, oil, food, banks, REIT, drug, etc.

Con ed(electric)
Aqua America(water)
National Fuel Gas(gas)
AT&T(telephone)
Exxon Mobil(oil)
Flowers(food)
Bank of America(bank)
New Plan Excel(reit)
Eli Lilly(drug)
Borg Warner Automotive(mfg)

I buy the lesser known names. The list today would be different were I starting today from scratch - but you get the idea - not all in the same sector. Also you can diversify across time as certain sectors get hosed from time to time - I don't rebalance or sell. But - stuff happens - my old old Long Island Lighting now KSE is getting bought out for cash by the Brit's National Grid. As recently as 2000 - my water utes were decimated by mergers/cash buyouts.

Eli Lilly and Con Ed are the only names - that stayed the same in the above list cause I originally bought co.'s that got merged.

Boring as paint and I didn't outperform anybody.

Sigh!

heh heh heh heh
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-18-2006, 11:52 PM   #11
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Re: Diviís

Since previous replies have only touched lightly on REITs, I thought
I would add some thoughts.

REITs have had a huge runup the last 6 years and are no longer the
huge bargain they were. I consider most somewhat over-priced, but
continue to hold large amounts of them. I tend to stick to the top
quality companies, based on my assessment of management quality,
balance sheet, and long term growth record and strategy. Top quality
REITs currently yield about 3 to 5%, depending on safety and growth
prospects. Most have been increasing FFO and dividends for at least
10 years, some for many more.

My curent top REIT holdings :

GGP : #2 owner of malls, high growth
KIM : #1 owner of shopping centers, medium-high growth, stable
WRE : smaller, owns a mix of assets in DC/Baltimore area, 3 decades
of rising FFO and dividends, very conservative financing
CUZ : smaller, aggressive developer of office/retail in the south
VNO : #2 owner of office buildings, NYC/DC centric, aggressive
DRE : #1 owner of suburban office/industrial, midwest/south
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 06:51 AM   #12
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Re: Diviís

Cycling, what do you make of AFR? I get the feeling they are probably agreat buy here, but I haven't had the time to do the DD.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 08:34 AM   #13
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Cycling, what do you make of AFR? I get the feeling they are probably agreat buy here, but I haven't had the time to do the DD.
They fall into the "not with a ten foot pole" category for me.

-Too new. I need close to 10 years of data in a company to feel comfortable
-Too heavily leveraged. Some REITs can safely leverage up a bit (like malls),
but AFR is much too leveraged for me
-One of a kind business model. I need competitors to evaluate
-Management has over-promised and under-delivered. I want the opposite

Because of the very high potential returns, I can see the attraction here,
however, and my objections might not apply in others investment styles.
However, I do not need any more home runs, just singles, and will stay away.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 09:21 AM   #14
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Boring as paint and I didn't outperform anybody.
with statement, I thought you might have SHW, MAS and RPM in your port.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 09:29 AM   #15
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Re: Diviís

Buying the 'uncertainty premium' if there is such a thing - is probably a better risk than the dotbomb era - however for AFR I might be tempted - with some counterbalancing dollars - adding to my WRE - or being a wild and crazy guy in my old age - maybe BUD to be in a different industry.

A total loss - in my 15% stock portfolio - would not derail my ER riding on core balanced index.

This is 'hobby money' now that I'm old enough to be tapping my IRA's.

heh heh heh heh
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 09:40 AM   #16
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor
Because of the very high potential returns, I can see the attraction here,
however, and my objections might not apply in others investment styles.
However, I do not need any more home runs, just singles, and will stay away.
I haven't really tried to tear the company apart yet to see if there is more risk than reward. However, there is nothing wrong with the credit of the vast majority of retail banks, and there seems to be no end to banks' appetite to open new branches.
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 09:46 AM   #17
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle
with statement, I thought you might have SHW, MAS and RPM in your port.
Looked at all three at various times over the last 15 years - either didn't have the money or bought something else - came closest on RPM when they hit a rough patch a while back.

heh heh heh
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 10:47 AM   #18
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor
-Too heavily leveraged. Some REITs can safely leverage up a bit (like malls),
* * but AFR is much too leveraged for me
I looked at the first one in your list -- GGP.* $20B in debt, about $5B of that in variable interest loans.* *And lots of exposure to retail, which looks like it may be in the initial part of a decline due to higher gas costs and lower consumer spending.

Also, Yahoo says they have a payout ratio of 400% -- I assume that's an error or some accounting side-effect.

What do you see as the upside for these guys?
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Re: Diviís
Old 07-19-2006, 01:48 PM   #19
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Re: Diviís

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
I looked at the first one in your list -- GGP. $20B in debt, about $5B of that in variable interest loans. And lots of exposure to retail, which looks like it may be in the initial part of a decline due to higher gas costs and lower consumer spending.

Also, Yahoo says they have a payout ratio of 400% -- I assume that's an error or some accounting side-effect.

What do you see as the upside for these guys?
GGP is still digesting the RSE aquisition of a few years ago, and is working their
debt ratio down. As a mall REIT, they can support a higher debt ratio in general
because of the long-term nature of their leases (often decades).

GGP has one of the lowest dvd/FFO ratios among REITs, usually about 50%. Yahoo
often uses GAAP income instead to compute ratios, which is inapplicable to REITs.

The main upside I see is the long-term record of the company and management
team. They have grown FFO and dvds at about 16% for the last decade in spite
of all predictions of doom. While I certainly do not expect that kind of growth in
the future, I see 10% or so as reasonable.
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