|
|
10-12-2017, 07:44 AM
|
#1
|
Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 6,335
|
DJIA 1yr +26.2%...Next?
The DJIA number is the actual. The DIA is 18.6%... That said, numbers YTD are way up.
Not asking for a prediction, but wondering how you feel about the near time future for investing in general. Optimistic? Worried? Stressed? or maybe just "It is what it is".
How do you look at your own situation? Day to day adjustments? Move to stability? Temporary interruption, with confidence for the longer term? Or maybe that there will be no adjustment to the current upward path?
With very little skin in the game, no real anxiety here, but I don't see much in the way of a predictive trend in the news, or even among the most respected economists.
Not a test, or a who's right or who's wrong. Just a point in time where those who are looking forward to retirement can do a check up on the future, after a generally "good" year for investing.
What do you think?
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
10-12-2017, 07:51 AM
|
#2
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,726
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu
What do you think?
|
I think no one knows what tomorrow will bring.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 07:56 AM
|
#3
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,804
|
I took some skin out of the game yesterday. But I still have a decent equity position.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 08:15 AM
|
#4
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 400
|
I took skin out of the game Nov 2016. So what do I know!
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 08:20 AM
|
#5
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnot
I took skin out of the game Nov 2016. So what do I know!
|
Market timing isn't your forte?
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 09:21 AM
|
#6
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,495
|
Learned not to market time. However, yesterday pulled 20% of total from equity mf to cash. Have already won the game and don't care to participate in the inevitable pullback. Fully expect the rise to continue a while though.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 09:23 AM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,351
|
I have always liked JP Morgan's answer when asked what the market will do: 'It will fluctuate."
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 09:29 AM
|
#8
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by H2ODude
Learned not to market time. However, yesterday pulled 20% of total from equity mf to cash. Have already won the game and don't care to participate in the inevitable pullback. Fully expect the rise to continue a while though.
|
kind of the way that I feel. When I got my rollover (and DW's) February of '16, DJIA was approaching 17,000 IIRC, and I was tempted to "wait for a pullback"...fortunately, I did not, but my AA is a pretty conservative 45% equities.
Would it be too forward of me to ask what your current AA is, in equities?
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 09:58 AM
|
#9
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,495
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff
kind of the way that I feel. When I got my rollover (and DW's) February of '16, DJIA was approaching 17,000 IIRC, and I was tempted to "wait for a pullback"...fortunately, I did not, but my AA is a pretty conservative 45% equities.
Would it be too forward of me to ask what your current AA is, in equities?
|
Probably about 40%; w 35 in bonds and remaining cash or equivalent. Some of what I classify as bond is actually a mortgage loan to son. He's solid, and it's a recorded mortgage so it's not one of those family "don't count it" loans IMO.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:01 AM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,906
|
Equities will continue to rise until there's a better (higher-return) place to put the money.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:06 AM
|
#11
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,331
|
No idea but I have been liquidating small amounts of equities to free up cash for next year and maintain my AA. Sooner or later there will be a big correction and then sooner or later it will come back up. Or not.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:12 AM
|
#12
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
|
I expect that I just bought more shares of some of the ETFs I have in my portfolio today and will continue to do so until I retire.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:19 AM
|
#13
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 568
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu
What do you think?
|
Well, since I ER'd (or RE'd) two years ago my investments are returning more than my w*rk salary on an annual basis (much more). So, you could say I'm satisfied with the market.
OTOH, the global situation does worry me so I am contemplating moving assets around to a more loss tolerable environment. Who knows, (I certainly don't).
_B
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:49 AM
|
#14
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 792
|
I just sold a small % of my after-tax holdings to shore up my cash reserves. Could probably have limped along and eventually refilled the coffers from my paycheck, but years of blackjack have gotten me in the habit of putting one chip from my stack into my pocket every so often when I'm way up.
And the market's performance this year qualifies as "way up."
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 10:53 AM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
|
The plan was to rebalance once a year, but this run has gone for so long and has gone so fast I've been trading equities for a rung on the bond ladder every six months instead. Still staying at 60/40, so I don't regret missing the little bit I have missed out on. Better to have the taxes, insurance and food covered for certain than to possibly be driving a BMW 7.
Last nights news said the whole worlds equity markets are poised to rise high next year. That's more worrisome to me than the recent run. (The term Irrational Exuberance still haunt me.)
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 11:56 AM
|
#16
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 400
|
To REwahoo - Well to be transparent - We had been discussing moving our AA from 70/30 to 60/40 because we are nearing ER. Date is 4/1/18 or thereabout. So it wasn't that impulsive of a move (or that is what I am telling myself)!
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 12:14 PM
|
#17
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
|
I have started to wonder if the crash will just be that much more severe this next time, due to the bull market being so strong and long beforehand?
Meanwhile the money just keeps piling up and piling up, week after week, and none of us seem to be able to spend it all. Below is an image showing what I imagine the typical ER Forum member is doing this week:
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 12:21 PM
|
#18
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I have started to wonder if the crash will just be that much more severe this next time, due to the bull market being so strong and long beforehand?
|
Who is to say it will actually be a crash? It could be a relatively gradual decline, or maybe only a slight decline and relative stagnation for a prolonged period.
Since I don't have a clue what will happen, as your sig line says I'm going to continue to be myself - clueless.
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 12:39 PM
|
#19
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Who is to say it will actually be a crash? It could be a relatively gradual decline, or maybe only a slight decline and relative stagnation for a prolonged period.
Since I don't have a clue what will happen, as your sig line says I'm going to continue to be myself - clueless.
|
Good point! (Not the clueless part - - the decline and stagnation part. )
I hadn't really thought about that possibility.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 01:58 PM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,043
|
always try to stay in the game. I rise and fall with the tide.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|