DJIA 1yr +26.2%...Next?

[imoldernu]

The DJIA number is the actual. The DIA is 18.6%... That said, numbers YTD are way up.

Not asking for a prediction, but wondering how you feel about the near time future for investing in general. Optimistic? Worried? Stressed? or maybe just "It is what it is".

How do you look at your own situation? Day to day adjustments? Move to stability? Temporary interruption, with confidence for the longer term? Or maybe that there will be no adjustment to the current upward path?

With very little skin in the game, no real anxiety here, but I don't see much in the way of a predictive trend in the news, or even among the most respected economists.

Not a test, or a who's right or who's wrong. Just a point in time where those who are looking forward to retirement can do a check up on the future, after a generally "good" year for investing.

What do you think?

 

[MichaelB]

What do you think?

I think no one knows what tomorrow will bring.

 

[Winemaker]

I took some skin out of the game yesterday. But I still have a decent equity position.

 

[whatnot]

I took skin out of the game Nov 2016. So what do I know!

 

[REWahoo]

I took skin out of the game Nov 2016. So what do I know!

Market timing isn't your forte?

 

[H2ODude]

Learned not to market time. However, yesterday pulled 20% of total from equity mf to cash. Have already won the game and don't care to participate in the inevitable pullback. Fully expect the rise to continue a while though.

 

[OldShooter]

I have always liked JP Morgan's answer when asked what the market will do: 'It will fluctuate."

 

[HadEnuff]

Learned not to market time. However, yesterday pulled 20% of total from equity mf to cash. Have already won the game and don't care to participate in the inevitable pullback. Fully expect the rise to continue a while though.

kind of the way that I feel. When I got my rollover (and DW's) February of '16, DJIA was approaching 17,000 IIRC, and I was tempted to "wait for a pullback"...fortunately, I did not, but my AA is a pretty conservative 45% equities.

Would it be too forward of me to ask what your current AA is, in equities?

 

[H2ODude]

kind of the way that I feel. When I got my rollover (and DW's) February of '16, DJIA was approaching 17,000 IIRC, and I was tempted to "wait for a pullback"...fortunately, I did not, but my AA is a pretty conservative 45% equities.

Would it be too forward of me to ask what your current AA is, in equities?

Probably about 40%; w 35 in bonds and remaining cash or equivalent. Some of what I classify as bond is actually a mortgage loan to son. He's solid, and it's a recorded mortgage so it's not one of those family "don't count it" loans IMO.

 

[GrayHare]

Equities will continue to rise until there's a better (higher-return) place to put the money.

 

[donheff]

No idea but I have been liquidating small amounts of equities to free up cash for next year and maintain my AA. Sooner or later there will be a big correction and then sooner or later it will come back up. Or not.

 

[exnavynuke]

I expect that I just bought more shares of some of the ETFs I have in my portfolio today and will continue to do so until I retire.

 

[Beldar]

What do you think?

Well, since I ER'd (or RE'd) two years ago my investments are returning more than my w*rk salary on an annual basis (much more). So, you could say I'm satisfied with the market.

OTOH, the global situation does worry me so I am contemplating moving assets around to a more loss tolerable environment. Who knows, (I certainly don't).

_B

 

[googily]

I just sold a small % of my after-tax holdings to shore up my cash reserves. Could probably have limped along and eventually refilled the coffers from my paycheck, but years of blackjack have gotten me in the habit of putting one chip from my stack into my pocket every so often when I'm way up.

And the market's performance this year qualifies as "way up."

 

[GravitySucks]

The plan was to rebalance once a year, but this run has gone for so long and has gone so fast I've been trading equities for a rung on the bond ladder every six months instead. Still staying at 60/40, so I don't regret missing the little bit I have missed out on. Better to have the taxes, insurance and food covered for certain than to possibly be driving a BMW 7.

Last nights news said the whole worlds equity markets are poised to rise high next year. That's more worrisome to me than the recent run. (The term Irrational Exuberance still haunt me.)

 

[whatnot]

To REwahoo - Well to be transparent - We had been discussing moving our AA from 70/30 to 60/40 because we are nearing ER. Date is 4/1/18 or thereabout. So it wasn't that impulsive of a move (or that is what I am telling myself)!

 

[W2R]

I have started to wonder if the crash will just be that much more severe this next time, due to the bull market being so strong and long beforehand?

Meanwhile the money just keeps piling up and piling up, week after week, and none of us seem to be able to spend it all. Below is an image showing what I imagine the typical ER Forum member is doing this week:

 

[REWahoo]

I have started to wonder if the crash will just be that much more severe this next time, due to the bull market being so strong and long beforehand?

Who is to say it will actually be a crash? It could be a relatively gradual decline, or maybe only a slight decline and relative stagnation for a prolonged period.

Since I don't have a clue what will happen, as your sig line says I'm going to continue to be myself - clueless.

 

[W2R]

Who is to say it will actually be a crash? It could be a relatively gradual decline, or maybe only a slight decline and relative stagnation for a prolonged period.

Since I don't have a clue what will happen, as your sig line says I'm going to continue to be myself - clueless.

Good point! (Not the clueless part - - the decline and stagnation part. )

I hadn't really thought about that possibility.

 

[kgtest]

always try to stay in the game. I rise and fall with the tide.

 

[DrRoy]

Sometimes markets go up nicely, sometimes they don't. I stick to my long term plan regardless.

 

[NW-Bound]

DJIA up 26.2% in 12 months? Wow, that was nice. Still, I am the type who always does fact-checking. Trust but verify.

Lemme see. The thread was started early today, so I use DJIA close of yesterday, 2017/10/11, which is 22873. One year ago, on 2016/10/11, it was 18129. So, it was 26.17%. The OP's number was confirmed.

But we should not neglect the dividend yield. If one invested in the DIA ETF, he would have a gain of 29.2%, the additional 3% due to the dividend.

I should point out that in the last 12 months, the S&P trails the Dow Jones. It went from 2137 to 2555, for a gain of 19.6%. With dividends, the S&P gained 21.9%.

Then, I looked at my own stash. I gained 20.12% (computed over the last dollars in all accounts including checking, but not counting the loose coins in the car ash trays). Not too shabby for being around 70% in equities. Yes, my stocks beat the market recently. They trailed the market earlier.

So, what happens next? I have written a lot of covered calls, and nearly all have become in-the-money. If the market holds up or does not decline a lot, many of my shares will get called, and I will have my stock AA reduced by 10% next week.

If I did not write these calls, I would have an additional gain of more than 1% as of this writing. Oh well, they say, pigs get slaughtered, so it's OK to have my stock AA reduced.

 

[RobLJ]

I took a small amount of gains yesterday (about .75% of stock allocation) to keep the stock allocation close to the minimum amount and build cash. It was only about 12% of this year's gains. I did the same in April and in June and March of '15.

If the bull continues, I'll probably continue to shave off stock gains into cash and bonds rather than just rebalancing about once a year as I normally do. I figure the Bull to continue on for a while--but just in case I'd like to keep some of the ill-gotten gains of the last 3-4 years.

 

[LOL!]

Market timing is my forté.

I already wrote what I thought

Now I can see market averages doing the "trading range" thing of bouncing around for awhile, but I enjoy the volatility and usually make money from that kind of thing.

in this post: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/lol-s-market-timing-newsletter-57042-77.html#post1946641 from last week.

My goal is to have my portfolio gain at least a 7-figure sum in a 12-month period.

 

[dixonge]

I guess I'm going to have to break out the spreadsheets and details in order to be able to accurately calculate YTD return. Changed brokerages in May, can't wait to do this year's taxes! *cough*

Looks like a decent 8.22% return since May, not counting dividends. Main takeaway is that I shifted all my investments to what I felt were very sustainable-type investments. The peace of mind is worth any lack of return. Haven't reinvested any of the dividends yet, but should begin that soon. Probably.